2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tier 1 Dem targets
Oh, Pa, WI, CO, NV, FL, IL

Tier 2
NH if Hassen runs

Wildcards
NJ and WV if Menendez gets into legal problems and Manchin is elected gov



2-6 pickups by Dems

Likely Pa, WI, CO, NH, NV and IL for a 4 seat net gain

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the Dems really need is four seats it will entail: Mastro, Bennett, Duckworth, Sestak and Feingold winning, and 1 of the following from NH, OH and FL. 

A wave of some sort would have tp entail more retirements from McCain, Rand Paul and Rubio.  Dems best hope in AZ was in 2012, KY in 2014, and a Christie or Huckabee Nomination in 2016, to win in FL.

Best bet in NH or Oh for the fourth seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dem likely hold: NV
Dem likely pickup: IL
Tossup: FL, CO, NH, PA, WI, OH
Rep likely pickup: --
Rep likely hold: AZ, IN, NC, La

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm fairly confident that the Democrats will hold Nevada and Colorado and then have a clean sweep of all 8 competitive seats in the east.    

Dem Pickups:  IA, IL, WI, OH, PA, NH, NC, FL

To go further on this, the Dems so far have outstanding candidates and also Hillary is almost guaranteed to bring a boost in turnout being the first female president.   Also Hillary is a much better fit for all the midwestern states that are up this time than Obama was.   

Russ Feingold is probably my favorite candidate up in Wisconsin and he's still very popular unlike Ron Johnson who isn't well liked.

Patrick Murphy will be very competitive in Florida for the open seat being vacated by Rubio.

Ted Strickland will be able to ride the Hillary wave to victory in OH,  he as well is quite popular.

Mark Kirk is very vulnerable in Illinois and pretty sure darn near anyone can beat him there.

I'm confident Maggie Hassan in NH is going to run for the Senate seat, and incumbent governors have good track records in unseating incumbent senators. 

That leaves NC, IA, and PA.   Those will probably be the hardest races but Burr is unpopular and Toomey isn't popular enough to survive a wave in a blue state.    Grassley is old as dirt and I'm pretty sure he's going to retire, he's just holding out till they figure things out behind closed doors.   

And there you have it,  Democrats pick up 8 seats and go up into the majority 54-46.

2-6 seats WI, Pa, OH, IL, NC, CO and NV and 15 seat net gain in House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tier 1 battlegrounds

Pa; OH; NV; WI; IL

Tier 2.Battlegrounds

CO; FL and NH

IL and WI are likely Democratic takeovers

NV Cortez-Masto is untested

Pa and OH where Dems have primary opposition and challengers will mount a charge at Toomey and Portman

NH is wildcard; it will give Dems the Senate and presidency without defeating Portman.

My predictions isnt based on polls; based on 272 map.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mike Bennett is prone to lose; it all depends on the candidates. But, dems dont necessarily need CO; Toomey, Portman, Ayotte, and FL open are Dem targets.

Its all about putting together 270 and four voted necessary for Dem majority

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The approvals of the GOP is underwater; I think it is safe to say Dems can win senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tier 1
NV; OH; PA; WI; IL

Tier 2
CO; NH; FL

Dems must win 4 seats to gain control.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After those three seats, a fourth one will fall OH, Pa or NH, thus giving Dems the senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Leaning Dem
Toomey; Kirk; Johnson; Rubio FL; CCM; Bennett

Leaning R
Portman; Ayotte; Burr; McCain

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mine arent predictions; they're projections, more or less, and gives the clearest route to 272 and senate majority.

Toomey is mildly fav, but he, just like Ayotte is part of 272 blue wall.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pure Tossup

FL Patrick Murphy v Gen R

Pa Toomey is more vul than Portman. Hilary should win state over Jeb by six, to help Sestak

NH Ayotte is tied with Hassan

The rest I leave as is

Dems net 3-5 seats; NH tipping pt race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feingold, Duckworth, Sestak and Bennet and CCM will win. Waiting on Hassan as well. And Senate majority will be complete

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feingold, Duckworth, Sestak and Bennet and CCM will win. Waiting on Hassan as well. And Senate majority will be complete

I always envy an bsolutely unbridled optimism of our Democratic friends up to (and sometimes - including) election day. But after that - .... "The people are dumb" and similar accusations reign supreme)))))

More Dems will come like Strickland and CCM, because dems are enthusiastic about taking back senate.

Especially with the Ohio poll showing Clinton ahead, the bellweather.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL; Pa; OH pure tossups
Lean R NH, AZ and NC
Lean D NV, CO, IL and WI

3-5 net pickup for Dems

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'll update mine:

Pure toss-up:
-Florida

Tilt D:
-Nevada
-Wisconsin

Tilt R:
-New Hampshire
-Pennsylvania (I may move this to Lean R if Toomey is still polling strong in the coming months)

Lean D:
-Colorado
-Illinois

Lean R:
-Ohio (It Portman's doesn't poll better against Strickland in future polls, this will be moved to Tilt R or even Toss-up)

Likely D:
None

Likely R:
-Arizona (If McCain loses in the primary, this will be moved to Lean R or even Tilt R)
-Indiana
-Missouri
-North Carolina

To continue to say OH is L R and it isnt.

Strickland will win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still

LD CO, IL, FL, & WI

Tossup
Pa & NV

GOP favored

AZ, OH& NH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV; FL or Pa you cant put a Lean Rating on it, the States are too important for Hillary's campaign, as she tries to consolidate the states that have Latinos or Catholics in them like CO, NV and Pa for 272.

Getting Sestak elected, despite his drawbacks is very important.

Lean Dem WI; IL; and CO

No clear fav Pa; NV& FL

Narrow inc adv OH, NC & AZ

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

tilt D
WI flip; IL flip & Co

Pure tossup
NV, FL, OH, Pa- Strickland & Sestak can win

Tilt R
AZ, IN & NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kirpatrick can upset McCain as well as Strickland def Portman.

Everyone thinks races will go by conventional wisdom, will be surprised on election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stabenow is in a Dem leaning state that hasnt voter GOP since 1988.😍

This is a presidential year& Dems are expected to make gains

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ark doesnt count& Pryor was Blanched as well.  QU was right on the 2014 Senate race; but wrong on the gov race; as Beauprez was suppose to be Gov.

PPP is a better measuring rod of CO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In which Mnt & IN are likely the ones to go; and Dems would need AZ or NV to keep control.