2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[smoltchanov]

D+5 is. probably, the most Democratic prediction that could be done (with Hagan being relatively unpopular and Burr - relatively noncontroversial). But thinghs seldom go all as desired. So, my prediction is somewhere about D+3... Wisconsin, Illinois and something else...

[smoltchanov]

D+5 is. probably, the most Democratic prediction that could be done (with Hagan being relatively unpopular and Burr - relatively noncontroversial). But thinghs seldom go all as desired. So, my prediction is somewhere about D+3... Wisconsin, Illinois and something else...

If it ends up being a wave, 6-10 seats flipping is not outside the realm of possibility. The possibility shouldn't really be discounted when there hasn't been a non wave election in the Senate since 2004 (yes, 2012 counts. The only reason Dems gained "only" two seats was because they were starting from such a ridiculously high base. Similarly, if the GOP gained 2 seats in 2016, it would be a wave.)

Surely - not 10. Even in a wave. 6? May be, but it will reuire a really BIG wave.

[smoltchanov]

Surely - not 10. Even in a wave. 6? May be, but it will reuire a really BIG wave.

I honestly don't think 6 seats would require all that big of a wave. In a favorable atmosphere, Dems should easily hold all their seats and take Wisconsin, Illinois, and Pennsylvania, plus have a shot at North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Taking all those seats doesn't seem like a huge wave to me. In a huge wave, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, and Arizona could all be in play, plus possibly Kentucky and Alaska.

I can't imagine wave big enough for Missouri (absent Akin), Indiana (absent Murdoch), Georgia and Arisona (in next 10 years) and Iowa (with Grassley) being in play. Even less - Kentucky and Alaska. That leaves 7 states. To win even 5 of them is a sort of achievement. In addition - all post-Bush Jr. waves were Republican. And polarization increased considerably since 2006-2008, while split-ticket voting decreased markedly. No, i am pessimistic about  Democratic chances in very NEAR future. Later on, beginning somewhere about 2022 - quite possibly..

[smoltchanov]

Mike Coffman is too pure for this world.

Of course - no. But he really outperforms a "generic Republican" in his generally swing district..

[smoltchanov]

Tier 1
NV; OH; PA; WI; IL

Tier 2
CO; NH; FL

Dems must win 4 seats to gain control.

4 out of 6 and NOT lose neither Nevada, nor Colorado, may be not so easy. IMHO - about 50-50 (with sure return to Republican majority after 2018)

[smoltchanov]

Leaning Dem
Toomey; Kirk; Johnson; Rubio FL; CCM; Bennett

Leaning R
Portman; Ayotte; Burr; McCain

Never saw a poll with Toomey losing to any possible Democratic candidate. Quirky Florida is, IMHO, pure tossup even with Murphy (and guaranteed loss with Grayson). Nevada? Not clear whom Republicans will run. Portman, Burr, McCain - between Lean R and Likely R. Ayotte - depends on Hassan's decision.

[smoltchanov]

Mine arent predictions; they're projections, more or less, and gives the clearest route to 272 and senate majority.

Toomey is mildly fav, but he, just like Ayotte is part of 272 blue wall.

Another matter... Yes, to win Senate and Presidential majority Democrats will need something like this...

[smoltchanov]

Feingold, Duckworth, Sestak and Bennet and CCM will win. Waiting on Hassan as well. And Senate majority will be complete

I always envy an bsolutely unbridled optimism of our Democratic friends up to (and sometimes - including) election day. But after that - .... "The people are dumb" and similar accusations reign supreme)))))

[smoltchanov]

Feingold, Duckworth, Sestak and Bennet and CCM will win. Waiting on Hassan as well. And Senate majority will be complete

I always envy an bsolutely unbridled optimism of our Democratic friends up to (and sometimes - including) election day. But after that - .... "The people are dumb" and similar accusations reign supreme)))))

More Dems will come like Strickland and CCM, because dems are enthusiastic about taking back senate.

Especially with the Ohio poll showing Clinton ahead, the bellweather.

As i always say - we will see in November. Next year..

[smoltchanov]

I think Ayotte will win, even if Hassan runs for senate. 

Not sure. It will be  very close. Ayotte moderated substantially since her 2010 cmpaign, but still - not sure.

[smoltchanov]

I'm curious as to why Indiana is always on the Lean R list. Even Missouri I can understand, but I don't see much of an explanation of why the Republican presidential nominee would perform so much better than the Senate nominee.

One word - Stutzman. Who may be next Akin or Mourdock...

[smoltchanov]

I'm curious as to why Indiana is always on the Lean R list. Even Missouri I can understand, but I don't see much of an explanation of why the Republican presidential nominee would perform so much better than the Senate nominee.

One word - Stutzman. Who may be next Akin or Mourdock...

Why would Stutzman be an Akin or Mourdock?

Because he is a "tea-party darling" (the type of politician i hate most). And they are prone of Akin-style gaffes..

[smoltchanov]

^ Hyperoptimistic. And, most likely, unrealistic too...

[smoltchanov]

Well, of late an initiative belongs to Republicans. Besides Wisconsin i am not sure which Republican seats Democrats will flip. Even Illinois. Yes, Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire are all possible, but it's equally possible they will stay Republican. Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida are slowly slipping from Democrats. And not even sure about Nevada - Clinton only narrowly leads Trump there and Heck is much better candidate then Trump.

[smoltchanov]

Under vote of Latinos in Vegas, anyways it was always gonna be a 51/49 Senate. Bayh entry into race deferred resources from FL and OH.

There may be many explanations. But essentially Democrats have no room for errors now: they must win 4 out of 5 (Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire) AND hold Nevada (or lose it and win all 5) - that will not be simple task...

[smoltchanov]

I don't feel like doing a map right now, but:

Safe D: CA, WA, OR, CT, NY, VT, MD, HI
Likely D: CO, IL, WI
Lean D: NH, PA
Tossup (Tilt D): NV, IN
Tossup (Tilt R): NC, FL
Lean R: AZ, MO
Likely R: OH, LA, IA, GA
Safe R: ND, SD, AK, ID, UT, SC, AL, OK, AR, KY, KS

Very close to my, but Illinois wasn't polled of late at all, and i won't be too surprized if it's only Lean D...

[smoltchanov]

NV goes from Leans D to Tilts GOP. Bayh, Duckworth, Hassan, McGinty & Feingold should win

No more hopes for Murphy, Stricland, Kinder and Ross? Only 4 weeks ago Democrats tried to prove to me that they will win all of them (and, may be, Georgia and Arizona too), while keeping Nevada. Is it impossible to guess that 4 weeks for now Bayh, Hassan and McGinty (at least) will follow their path?))))