Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
Posts: 28,459
Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
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« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2015, 07:04:06 PM » |
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Safe R
Alabama - Come on, lol.
Alaska - Murkowski will probably lose the primary, but we'll see. Either way it doesn't matter, Democrats aren't picking this seat up.
Arkansas - lol mike beebe. Not even he would win this seat against Boozman. He's safe.
Iowa - For all intents and purposes, this should be a toss-up. Chuck Grassley, however, makes it completely safe. He won't retire. Maybe next term, Democrats.
Idaho - Do they even hold elections here anymore?
Kansas - 2014 will be the last time in a long time we will talk about a Kansas Senate race for longer than a sentence.
Lousiana - lol
North Dakota - Hoeven has serious potential for nobody to run against him. He's fine.
South Carolina - Timmy!
South Dakota - The Dem Bench here doesn't exist, Thune is fundraising like a fiend. He maybe unopposed again.
Oklahoma - I am on record, and yes, in fact, we don't hold elections in Oklahoma anymore.
Likely R
Arizona - Meh. Even if McCain wins or loses the primary, I just don't see it in the cards for Democrats. Unless Republicans nominate Evan Mecham (who I think is dead), this is not the seat in the new Democratic Majority. Dems have some good future recruits that could potentially run, but I advise them to go against Doug Ducey or a potential challenger against Flake (since I see him having one in 2018).
Georgia - This moves to safe R if Isakson announces, but probably stays Likely R if Isakson retires. The GOP had a disastrous 2014 in Georgia and still won out just fine. There would be a chance of a loss here, but it's small, especially since the two Georgia Democrat frontrunners lost easily last year. Who else do they really have? Republicans shouldn't worry about this seat.
Indiana - Yeah, only if Pence loses in a landslide for re-election does the GOP lose this seat too. The bench here is a mixed batch, but it seems like the most undesirable candidates are backing out, so I suspect this seat remains in GOP hands. Plus the Dem bench here is aging and aging quickly, with very few young and up and comers rising.
Kentucky - The Kentucky Democrats have a rather incredible bench for such a Republican state. However, that bench is talented in a way that is very peculiar for Senate races - They do fine in statewide races where not as much attention is paid to them, but as soon as they are in a race with a lot of spotlight is shined, they fade away. Some Democrat candidate here I suspect will be massively hyped only to disappoint majorly. Whoever the Republican nominee is, whether or not it's Paul, is fine. Move this to Safe if Rand Paul runs for re-election.
Missouri - I contemplated moving this to Lean R, and the truth is, this is a seat Democrats could win if Hillary wins in a blowout, but even with strong political talent from Jason Kander, Blunt is a juggernaut in the state. Not necessarily a popular or impressive one, but enough of one to overwhelm most opponents.
Utah - Only in Likely R because of the possibility of a Matheson v. Lee race. Lee is vulnerable due to his Tea party stands, but he's probably fine in the primary, even against Romney. Matheson would probably poll closely, but ultimately would lose by a fairly unsurprising double digits. If I were a Republican, I wouldn't worry about this seat at all.
Lean R
North Carolina - My first lean R! Burr always has to fear North Carolina's hatred of incumbents, but the Democrat bench against him is thinning. Senator Kay Hagan lost embarrassingly and unexpectedly in 2014, and now she's so unpopular that her loss would be almost a foregone conclusion. Cowell, one of the strongest possibilities of an actual win here, decided not to run, and the next big Democrat hope is a 32 Year Old state senator. Not exactly a strong basket to put your eggs in. Burr's anonymous nature will probably make this race closer than needed to be, but Burr is probably fine.
Ohio - This is probably closer to Tilt R than Lean R, but decided to go with Lean R anyways. Ted Strickland is a juggernaut in the state of Ohio, and a lot of polls show him up on Senator Portman. Strickland, however, is aging, and so far has been severely outpaced in terms of fundraising to Portman. Portman will no doubt define himself and define Strickland before Strickland has a chance to. And there is fuel for the Strickland attacks, just read any of Lebron Fitzgerald's posts about the race! Sittenfeld would probably be an interesting choice if he had been given the chance to challenge Portman, but he'd also be doomed. Portman will have a decent fight in store for him, but it seems like thus far he's prepared for it.
Toss-Up
Florida - Republicans have a strong bench, but with their top guy out and Democrats top guy in, this is officially a toss-up. Still, a negative nancy like Alan Grayson can do a lot to bring down Murphy's positives, and whoever the GOP nominates will have the advantage of the great infrastructure of the Florida Republican Party, so gun to my head, this seat remains in the GOP's hands. But Murphy is in a strong position, and this is a race that will go down to the wire.
Illinois - Mark Kirk is in something of a pickle. Despite being a general moderate, he has the target on his back for sure in this strongly Democratic state. He does have the advantage of not having to run with home state President Barack Obama on the ticket, since Hillary will surely do worse in the state. That being said, he will still have to run strongly ahead of Hillary. This is probably Tiltest D of the Toss-ups, but Kirk has proven to be formidable in his own congressional seat (which is about as liberal as the rest of Illinois), and I suspect he's learned a thing or two about running a competitive race. Don't count him out yet.
Nevada - A cluster-f, We don't even know who's in on the Republican side. The Democrats have Catherine Masto, who is probably a strong candidate since she has such strong support from Harry Reid, another not-necessarily-popular juggernaut. Still, Republicans here have a strong record of winning, mostly due to plucking out very moderate candidates. Dean Heller, the other Senator in the state, has seen demographics shift and has become one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, and Sandoval is Sandoval. If Sandoval jumps in, move this to Lean R, but keep this in Toss-up otherwise since Republicans have some potentially potent candidates like Roberson or Hutchison, and some potentially Akin candidates like Angle or (name a random state senator).
New Hampshire - One of the tilter R's of the toss-up section, Ayotte is in a fairly good position for a Senator from New Hampshire. She ties the state's most popular public official, and leads strongly against the state's second most popular public official. Even if Hassan jumps in, which is definitely possibly and maybe even likely, this is still a dogfight to the end, due to New Hampshire's moody nature.
Pennsylvania - Probably Tilts R at the moment. Pat Toomey has gone from conservative warrior to Pennsylvania's Senator with surprising coherency, and certainly more coherent than Sestak's bid for the Democratic nomination, where his own party is actively looking to challenge him. That being said, it's Pennsylvania during a Presidential year, and this is a state where Hillary would do better than Obama, so Toomey has to run far ahead of the Republican nominee, so this won't move out of toss-up unless, god forbid, the Democrats actually forsake Sestak and go with a lightweight like Ed Pawlowski (who would be crushed).
Lean D
Colorado - Combined with a Presidential level turnout and generally being a controversy-less Incumbent, Mike Bennet should be fine. The fact he's rather anonymous and actually was trailing in a poll against Mike Coffman should set off some alarms. Nevertheless, I don't think the Colorado GOP has a candidate like Cory Gardner left on their roster, and though they have some solid potential people like Walker Stapleton, I think Bennet ultimately survives, maybe narrowly.
Wisconsin - This is the only seat where I can definitively say the Incumbent will be a fairly big underdog. Ron Johnson is a great campaigner but he is far to the state's right. Russ Feingold, on the other hand, lost barely in a wave year and is coming back. Polls show Feingold up double digits. It won't be that bad, but Johnson will probably have to run ahead of the Republican nominee in the state, and I just don't see that in the cards against Feingold.
Likely D
NONE
Safe D
California - Yeah, I concede there isn't a chance the GOP picks up this seat. Unless something unforeseen happens, it's Harris' seat to lose.
Hawaii - lol wut
Connecticut - I already have spent too much time typing about this seat.
Maryland - Edwards and Van Hollen mudslinging will be fun for a while, but once one of them is the nominee, Democrats needn't worry.
New York - Do they even have elections here anymore?
Oregon - Move this to Likely D if Wyden retires. But that's about as much movement this race gets. I've heard rumors that Wyden may be primaried. Sounds like garbage to me.
Vermont - Loleahy
Washington - Republicans here barely have a bench for Governor, much less for Senate.
From this list, I suspect the GOP loses Illinois and Wisconsin, and holds on everywhere else. Democrats hold on to Nevada (unless Sandoval jumps in, as he seems like he won't do) and Colorado.
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