SAFE R:
Alabama
Idaho
Iowa (unless something happens to Grassley)
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah
LIKELY R:
Alaska (unless Murkowski loses in a primary -- see Lugar in 2012)
Arizona (assuming that nothing happens to McCain)
Arkansas (despite low approval for Boozman)
Georgia
Kansas (close at times in 2014)
Kentucky (should Paul run for the Presidency and abandon the Senate)
Louisiana (depends upon the jungle primary)
LEAN R:
Arizona (health of octogenarian incumbent)
Indiana (potential trouble)
North Carolina (unless Burr gets a competent opponent, then LEAN D)
TOSS-UP:
Florida
Nevada
Ohio
Pennsylvania
LEAN D
Colorado
LIKELY D:
New Hampshire (flip)
Wisconsin (flip)
SAFE D:
California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois (flip)
Maryland
New York
Oregon
Vermont
All of the other I can see, but how in god's name is NH a near safe pickup, and Arkansas at Likely R, and NC going to Lean D with a competent opponent. Ayotte is doing pretty well in beefing up her "moderate" image. Arkansas at every level is now safe, it is not going to flip, and even if Burr got an amazing opponent, the race would start out as tossup, nothing more.
