2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[windjammer]

Sabato changed Wisconsin from toss up to "leans dem"

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-senate/

Too early.

[windjammer]

With Kirkpatrick in, AZ moves from Likely R to Lean R.

Toss-Up:

NV (Likely R if Sandoval runs, Lean R if it's Dina Titus vs. Heck/Krolicki, Likely D if Angle runs. Toss-up otherwise.)
FL

Lean D:

IL
WI
CO (Lean R if Mike Coffman runs, Toss-Up if Cynthia Coffman runs, Likely D if Buck runs. Lean D otherwise.)

Likely D:

WA
CA (Due to Top-Two Crap)

Lean R:

NH (Toss-Up if Hassan runs)
OH (Toss-Up if Sittenfeld drops out)
NC
PA
AZ

Likely R:

AK (primary crap)
MO
LA (Safe R if Vitter loses governorship and still runs for senate reelection)
GA
KY (Safe R if Rand Paul is the senate nominee)
IN

Safe D (* means that while retirement is highly unlikely, such an event would make the state more competitive):

OR *
MD
NY
VT
CT
HI

Safe R (* means that while retirement is highly unlikely, such an event would make the state more competitive):

UT
ID
ND
SD
IA *
AR *
KS
AL
SC
OK

Tbh, I would still keep AZ as likely rep. Mccain is far from being stupid.

[windjammer]

Moving Missouri to Toss Up

Chances of flipping:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Indiana
4. New Hampshire
5. Pennsylvania
6. Florida
7. North Carolina
------------------------
8. Ohio
9. Arizona
10. Missouri
11. Nevada
12. Iowa
13. Louisiana
14. Georgia
15. Colorado

May I ask why?

[windjammer]

I totally agree with that!

[windjammer]

Rght now, I believe democrats will pick up IL, WI, IN, PA, NC and NH.