NC-Sen: Heath Shuler for Senate?

[Suburbia]

Could you see former Blue Dog Congressman Heath Shuler t inning for the Senate in North Carolina in 2016?

[moderatevoter]

I don't see it, but he'd be a good candidate.

[Miles]

The biggest advantage is that he'd make somewhat of a dent in Burr's base, western NC, but that area is losing electoral influence each year.

The Democratic nominee needs to 1) run as close as possible to the Presidential margins in the handful of largest counties and 2) generate turnout in the eastern rural black parishes.

I think Shuler would be okay, all things considered, but better options exist, IMO.

[badgate]

His biggest advantage may be money.

[Sol]

The biggest advantage is that he'd make somewhat of a dent in Burr's base, western NC, but that area is losing electoral influence each year.

The Democratic nominee needs to 1) run as close as possible to the Presidential margins in the handful of largest counties and 2) generate turnout in the eastern rural black parishes.

I think Shuler would be okay, all things considered, but better options exist, IMO.

Of course, number 2 must be done covertly, or else it can demolish a candidate--bringing votes in from other states is illegal.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Shuler's problem is that he has postured himself as being at least somewhat outside the National Democratic party.  This was once a plus in a state like NC, but nowadays there are far fewer local-but-not-national Democrats in NC than in 1992.  Then, too, in what qualifies as a kamikaze mission, he opposed Nancy Pelosi for the Democratic House leadership in 2011, which further alienates him from the national Democratic party.

The logic for a Shuler candidacy is kind of 1986-ish.  The parties are different now, and the national Democratic party is less keen on spawning the election of folks who call themselves Democrats, but posture themselves as conservatives to the point where they are constantly critical of the national Democratic Party, especially to the point where they actively distance themselves from Presidential ticket and refuse to even endorse the nominee.  The name of the game in Southern Democratic politics today is to ramp up black and Hispanic turnout and hope that enough whites are real Democrats enough to join them to provide a winning coalition.  Truthfully, I can't see guys like Shuler, or Larry Kissell, gaining the level of black support to topple an incumbent given their distancing themselves from Obama in 2012.