I'm quite unfamiliar with the Bolivian politics (I'm lost with all these right-wing parties) and wrote this in a rush as I learned very lately about the date of this election. Anyway, it sounds like a very interesting election.
Local elections are been held today in Bolivia with 9 department governors and 339 mayors up for election. Departmental assemblies and municipal councils are also to be renewed. Mayors are elected in a single round through FPTP. Conversely, to be elected by first round, a candidate for governor must win more than 50% fo the vote or at least 40% of the vote with a 10% lead over the second-place candidate; otherwise, a run-off between the two top candidates will be held on May 3, 2015.
Latest polls showed the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) losing ground after having won last October national elections in a landslide. The MAS is now at risk to lose several of its strongholds, notably the governorship of La Paz department and the mayoralty of El Alto.
Several corruption scandals has erupted these last weeks with the most damaging being the investigation of massive embezzlement at Indigenous Development Fund for Native Farmers (Fondioc), an agency charged with the funding of development projects. An audit has revealed that some $11 million of the Fondioc funds has been used to finance “ghost projects” which benefited to members of the MAS.
The selection process of the MAS candidates has also raised internal critics as, in various places, the candidates chosen by the grassroots militancy were ignored and replaced by people designated by Morales. Several members of the MAS have notably criticized the selection as candidates of right-winger turncoats or figures from the business sector. According to this
article, Morales has also lost the support of the indigenous from the lowlands due to his extractive policy.
Meanwhile, the independence of the electoral authorities have been questioned as in the Beni department, the whole slate of the main opposition party has been disqualified after one of its member had publicly disclosed the result of an internal poll.
Gubernatorial electionsThe MAS currently held every governorships but Santa Cruz and Beni, which are by now controled by the conservative Social Democrat Movement, also known as the Democrats.
In the
La Paz department, the incumbent MAS governor César Cocarico renounced to run for reelection due to the poor handling of a child abuse case and allegations of nepotism. Instead, the MAS is running as candidate the leader of a local indigenous women's organization, Felipa Huanca, whose name has been linked to the Fondioc case. She's facing a strong challenge from Félix Patzi, an ancient ally of Morales (he was education minister in his government) who was expelled from the MAS after being arrested for driving under influence. Patzi is now running under the banner of the center-left Sovereignty and Liberty (SOL.bo), a party founded last year by La Paz mayor Luis Revilla, after its previous party, the Movement without Fear, lost its registration due to poor electoral results. Five other candidates are running. The most relevant are Elizabeth Reyes of the right-wing National Unity Front (UN), whose candidacy was initially rejected on a technicality, and radical Aymara activist and former presidential candidate Felipe Quispe.
In the
Santa Cruz department, after the historical victory of Morales last year in this opposition stronghold, the MAS has some hopes to finally capture the governorship. However, the polls indicate that incumbent governor Rubén Costas (Democrats, right-wing) will be largely reelected against the MAS candidate, a trade unionist. Interestingly enough, at some point, the MAS seriously considered nominating the leader of a local business association as its candidate for governor.
In the
Cochabamba department, the MAS candidate, journalist and former government spokesman Iván Canelas should be largely elected.
Similarly, the MAS should keep the governorship of the
Potosí department where former deputy Juan Carlos Cejas has been designated as candidate. A poll indicated that the candidate of the Movimiento Originario Popular, who has linked with trade unions and rural workers' organizations, would finished in second place; same poll gave however 43% of voters who will cast a blank vote or would not vote for any of the candidates.
In the
Chuquisaca department, the MAS incumbent governor (elected in 2010) Esteban Urquizu is the favorite. Latest polls indicate 24% of undecided voters which could favored his challenger Damián Condóri, the leader of the CSUTCB, an agrarian union, who renounced to support the MAS to run for an independent list. Condóri has been since be expelled from the CSUTCB.
In the
Oruro department, the selection process for MAS candidates turned into a mess. The MAS militants nominated trade unionist Edgar Sánchez as candidate for governor; however, arguing of corruption allegations against Sánchez, Evo Morales dismissed Sánchez and designated instead his own deputy minister for Rural Development, Víctor Hugo Vásquez. An infuriated Sánchez tried to mounted his own candidacy under the banner of a citizen's movement named Popular Participation, only to surprisingly withdraw in the middle of the race. The MAS should have no problem there to keep the governorship.
In the
Tarija department, the 2010 election was won by opposition candidate Mario Cossío. After few weeks in office, Cossío was suspended under accusation of corruption (Cossío claimed the allegations are bogus) and replaced by a MAS dude thanks to an alliance between the MAS and a local party. The MAS incumbent isn't running for reelection. The MAS designated Carlos Cabrera, its unsuccessful candidate in 2010, to run again for governor; however, Cabrera was disqualified for not having resigned his faculty dean post at time. The new MAS candidate, Pablo Canedo, is trailing in the polls behind Adrián Oliva who is running as the candidate for the conservative Autonomist Departmental Unity (UD-A). Two MAS dissidents, Luis Alfaro and Aluida Vilte, are also running against Canedo, claiming that the latter 'doesn't adhere to the socialist ideology'.
The situation is very confuse in the
Beni department, which have been an opposition stronghold and a department that Morales has always failed to win. The governor elected in 2010, Ernesto Suárez, was suspended in 2011 for corruption charges in what has been presented by the opposition as a political persecution. After the resignation of Suárez, by-election was held in 2013. The candidate of Suárez's party handily won over the MAS candidate. In 2014, Suárez was selected by Samuel Doria Medina to be his running mate in the presidential election. Suárez was selected by the Democrats to be its candidate for governor this year but, as explained above, his candidacy like those of all of his co-religionists, was disqualified on quite bizarre grounds. It remains to see how right-wing voters will react and if they would vote for the candidate of the populist Revolutionary Nationalist Movement, veteran politician Sandro Giordano (he is a former president of the national Senate), to prevent the election of MAS candidate Alex Ferrier. For some reason, a minor candidate chose to withdraw in the last days to endorse Suárez, despite the disqualification of the latter.
There is no real contest in
Pando department where latest poll gives MAS incumbent Luis Flores reelected with 70% of the votes.
Municipal electionsLatest polls for municipal elections showed that the opposition could win 7 out of the 10 'most important' municipalities.
The most watched race is the election of mayor of
El Alto, a suburb of La Paz and the nexus of the protests against the 'neo-liberal' governments at the begin of the 2000s. Incumbent MAS mayor Edgar Patana, already criticized for his poor management, is seriously threatened after the uncovering of a video footage showing former El Alto mayor Fanor Nava giving Patana a small package which allegedly contained money. Patana said he doesn't remember what was inside the said package. Patana could be defeated by Soledad Chapetón, the 34-year old UN candidate, who has been noticed by Bolivian medias for her Aymara background (even if she herself doesn't wear the traditional custom nor is fluent in Aymara).
The MAS has little hope to capture the mayoralty of
La Paz from incumbent Luis Revilla who is seeking a second term. The MAS candidate is Guillermo Mendoza, a turncoat who has began his political career in the ranks of the UN.
Similarly, right-wing incumbent Percy Fernández is widely favored to be elected to a sixth term as mayor of
Santa Cruz under the banner of his own personal vehicle, Santa Cruz para Todos.
In
Oruro, the MAS supported incumbent mayor Rossío Pimentel who was elected in 2010 for the Movement without Fear but later defected to the MAS. She will faced former mayor Edgar Bazán, running with his personal outfit which is named the 'San Felipe de Austria Citizen Movement' (San Felipe de Austria was Oruro's name during colonial era).
In
Cochabamba, the MAS incumbent Edwin Castellanos (elected in 2010) declined to run again forcing the MAS to chose a replacement in a rush. Latest poll gives the latter trailing behind the 32-year old right-wing candidate who is running for the Democrats.
Rodrigo Paz (United to Reform, UNIR), son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora, is the big favorite to become next
Tarija mayor and succeeded his co-religionary Oscar Montes Barzón who ruled the city since fifteen years. Against the willingness of the MAS local section, Evo Morales designated former right-wing deputy Rodrigo Ibáñez to run against Paz.
