IS this map possible

[OSR stands with Israel]

269-269  tie

[Flake]

Is it possible? Of course.

Is it likely? No.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Extraordinarily likely if Walker is the nominee and improves his standing in his home state. Colorado and NH may be in contention too, but I feel like both of those states are going to be prone to underperformance vs. polls, particularly CO.

[solarstorm]

I'd say it is quite likely in a scenario Clinton/Hickenlooper vs. Walker/Rubio.

[pbrower2a]

Extraordinarily likely if Walker is the nominee and improves his standing in his home state. Colorado and NH may be in contention too, but I feel like both of those states are going to be prone to underperformance vs. polls, particularly CO.

Walker is projected to lose his own state. Iowa is extremely close to Wisconsin in its voting; Walker projects to lose it, too.

[Nyvin]

Talk about a squeaker

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Extraordinarily likely if Walker is the nominee and improves his standing in his home state. Colorado and NH may be in contention too, but I feel like both of those states are going to be prone to underperformance vs. polls, particularly CO.

Walker is projected to lose his own state. Iowa is extremely close to Wisconsin in its voting; Walker projects to lose it, too.

OK, but if for one second we pretend that the current polling is not indicative of what is going to happen in November 2016 because swing voters are fickle and likely to be influenced by advertising, Walker is likely to target these two states. Yes, Hillary is the odds on favorite in these two states, but if Walker makes the election semi-competitive which is almost a certainty at this point, those margins are going to narrow.

I seem to remember your polling maps showing Romney down in Georgia and Tennessee. And there's nothing wrong with reporting that fact. But we also have to acknowledge these are swing states that are likely to be pretty close.

D+2/D+3 vs. NPV could easily be reduced to in-line with the popular vote for Walker. That will fluctuate from now through the primary season and expect volatility throughout the GE campaign. That can be said with confidence. And that's why this map is possible and somewhat likely. Hillary could blow him out or he might surprise us and win even more. You can't project the climate and ads right now. But this is what a close race looks like.

[Ebsy]

At this time, I am ready to project that Scott Walker doesn't have a chance in hell of winning Wisconsin.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, its very well possible.

[IceSpear]

The fact that WI is blue means Walker must be the nominee.

But the problem would be CO vs. OH/FL. Hillary polls poorly in CO, but is dominating in OH/FL. That could change, but as of now the map seems unlikely for that reason.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

At this time, I am ready to project that Scott Walker doesn't have a chance in hell of winning Wisconsin.

What does he need to win in a general? 1.46-1.48M? He can realistically reach that. I'd give him at least a 40% chance.

[Sumner 1868]

A Democrat that wins Virginia probably wins Florida as well.

[WVdemocrat]

Don't discount Walker's chances of winning Wisconsin. He has been governor of the state since 2011. If he was able to win them over 3 times, and win a recall election in presidential election year (higher turnout), then I see no reason why he couldn't win it in 2016 if he really devoted resources and effort to it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sure it is. It just might require a lot of one way tickets from Colorado Springs to Wisconsin.

[Free Bird]

A Democrat that wins Virginia probably wins Florida as well.

Reverse that

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

A Democrat that wins Virginia probably wins Florida as well.

Obama won Florida by 1 and 2 points.
Obama won Virginia by 4 and 6 points.
Sure, part of that may be black turnout, but those are long-term trends. Population growth in NoVa is pulling it very strongly into the D column. There is almost no way FL turns Atlas red before Virginia. Cubans becoming more supportive of Democrats is nowhere near enough.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

At this time, I am ready to project that Scott Walker doesn't have a chance in hell of winning Wisconsin.

Image

What does he need to win in a general? 1.46-1.48M? He can realistically reach that. I'd give him at least a 40% chance.

That's the number of votes George W. Bush won in 2004, and GWB still lost 49.7% - 49.3%. Hell John McCain got more votes in 2008, when he was destroyed by 14 percentage points, than Walker did in any of those elections.

There are two different electorates that show up in Presidential years and midterm years. Walker may make the state competitive, but since Obama's awakening of the minority vote since 2008, it's unlikely Walker will come anywhere near winning it.

Winning low turnout elections when your party is already winning in a wave is not at all impressive, nor an indicator of future success in that state in a high-turnout election.

McCain only got 1.26 million votes. If he had gotten 1.47 million and all the new votes were taken from Obama, he would've won the state. Granted, that's a huge shift, but it goes to show that's all Walker needs - 113,000 more votes (~20% of the Presidential-only turnout) than when he was one of the most hated men in the state and had a huge target on his back, non-stop negative media attention and a group mobilized against him with the sole goal of bringing down that man.

If we are discussing that it could be that close, then this map is possible.

The difference in electorate is really only slightly more than the recall was. Minority turnout will be interesting especially considering he is from Milwaukee County. I'm not even sure if massive hatred from his hometown will hurt him that much as we saw in 2012.

[Ebsy]

Walker ended his chances in Wisconsin when he took the ax to the University of Wisconsin system, which the entire state cherishes like a favorite child.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Walker ended his chances in Wisconsin when he took the ax to the University of Wisconsin system, which the entire state cherishes like a favorite child.

I love their education system just as much. He already has his killer response though that cutting K-12 funding in 2011 didn't hurt the educational system - he touts that graduation rates and test scores are on the rise in his state despite the cuts. Plus, a significant chunk of the cut is due to a tuition freeze. He wants Wisconsin to have the most affordable higher education in the country. I don't agree that it should have been cut this much, but he can easily make this a good thing for his campaign in the state of Wisconsin and elsewhere. The GOP needs to be about efficient government, and he may be able to argue that.

[Lief 🗽]

~anything is possible~

(but not this)

[Stockdale for Veep]

A tie is the only way that the electoral college dies right? The backlash would enormous.

[Del Tachi]

This is the mostly likely outcome that produces a 269-269 tie. 

[Ebsy]

If you think that a Republican controlled House of Representative would choose a Democratic winner of the popular vote you are absolutely out of your mind.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

If we assume that Hillary could gain a few seats in line with her PV victory, we may be able to use the 2012 results as a proxy. This is assuming that all House members vote for their party.

In the event of no candidate getting a majority, each state's representatives get a collective vote. So (discounting DC), there's 3 ties, 17 states for the Democrats, and 30 states for the Republicans.

If you think that a Republican controlled House of Representative would choose a Democratic winner of the popular vote you are absolutely out of your mind.

[heatmaster]

Any map is possible,  but the difference will be, not the way we as ban fide members of this forum construct such a map, but how the voters do. Until then everything is exactly that, an academic exercise....perhaps futility.