What would the results have been in 2014 if it was a democratic wave?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My Guess:

Senate: Begich, Hagan, M. Udall survive. LA/GA go to runoffs, but the republicans win both. Republican Senate of 51-49.

Governor: LePage, Baker, Hogan, Scott, Snyder, Walker, Rauner, and Brownback all lose. GA goes to a runoff but the republicans still win. Democratic Gubernatorial Majority of 26-23-1.

For the house, I'll say D+6 for a 228-207 Republican Majority.

[Sumner 1868]

It would have meant a Romney presidency, for a start.

[retromike22]

2012 was the best chance for a Democratic wave. All Obama had to do was take his debate prep more seriously.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2012 was the best chance for a Democratic wave. All Obama had to do was take his debate prep more seriously.

In the end, democrats still won almost everything that year. Sure, with a good 1st debate you can tack on North Carolina for Obama, and for the senate you can add in a Berkeley Win, and for the governors a Gregg win (IN), but that's it. 2012 was for all intents and purposes a democratic wave.

[retromike22]

2012 was the best chance for a Democratic wave. All Obama had to do was take his debate prep more seriously.

In the end, democrats still won almost everything that year. Sure, with a good 1st debate you can tack on North Carolina for Obama, and for the senate you can add in a Berkeley Win, and for the governors a Gregg win (IN), but that's it. 2012 was for all intents and purposes a democratic wave.

Oh I'm not saying that it wasn't a Democratic wave, I'm saying that 2012 was a better year for a Democratic wave than 2014. I should have used the word "timing" instead of "chance."

[emcee0]

I would also keep Harkin around for another term and defeats Ernst.

[Xing]

Yeah, Ernst wouldn't have won in a Democratic wave, even against Braley. 50-50 senate, also Democrats probably would've gained 5-7 house seats.

[free my dawg]

Senate: I have to agree with Wulfric. Braley was that bad of a candidate. R+6 (AR/SD/WV/LA/IA/MT).

Governors: Brownback, Davis, Snyder lose. Walker barely survives. LePage is saved by Cutler. D+3.

House: A lot of close races. Rahall, Barrow, Bishop, Maffei still lose, NY-21 and NC-7 also flip. R+6. On the other hand, Sink wins, and Benishek and Mooney fall. All unmentioned districts hold. R+3.

[Del Tachi]

If we're in the middle of President Romney's first term in office and he's grossly unpopular then there is no reason to assume that Democrats wouldn't be able to defend all of there incumbent Senators and then pickup KY and GA; Collins might have retired too, and that would have added an additional pickup for the Dems. 

[Maxwell]

President Romney is pretty unpopular.

Alaska - Begich dominates Treadwell 54-41. D Hold

Montana - John Walsh narrowly upsets Corey Stapleton 49-48. D Hold

Colorado - Udall dominates Ken Buck 53-43. D Hold

South Dakota - Brendan Johnson runs to suceed his father, begins as the underdog until Mike Rounds implodes due to the EBI scandal, and Rounds is replaced with Annette Bosworth, who basically gives a Akin-esqe interview. Johnson defeats Bosworth 53-46. D Hold

Iowa - Harkin sweeps re-election against Sam Clovis 64-33. D Hold

Arkansas - IDK. Pryor still loses to Tom Cotton, but it's more like 50-48. R Gain

Louisiana - Landrieu holds on against Rob Maness, who upsets against Cassidy in the jungle primary. D Hold

Kentucky - Adam Edelen defeats Mitch McConnell 52-46 in the biggest shock of the night. D Gain

Mississippi - Chris McDaniel proves to be the biggest Akin of the cycle, and against still-Democrat Gene Taylor (who Thad Cochran actively campaigns for), McDaniel loses by 54-45. D Gain

North Carolina - Kay Hagan easily beats the face of the North Carolina legislature Thom Tillis 55-43. D Hold

Georgia - Michelle Nunn faces off against Paul Broun (who came out on top after a run-off with Phil Gingrey), gets a solid win (within 10). D Gain.

Kansas - Greg Orman's transformational campaign v. the aging Senator Pat Roberts ends with a surprising margin in Ormans favor (53-42). I Gain (D really)

West Virginia - Shelley Moore Capito wins 56-41 against Carte Goodwin. R Gain

Maine - Susan Collins retires to run for Governor in 2018. Republicans nominate a good fighter in Kevin Raye, but he's no match for [Insert Generic Democrat here]. D Gain.

So overall, two Republican pick-ups, Five Democrat pick-ups (3 more seats overall).

[IceSpear]

President Romney is pretty unpopular.

Alaska - Begich dominates Treadwell 54-41. D Hold

Montana - John Walsh narrowly upsets Corey Stapleton 49-48. D Hold

Colorado - Udall dominates Ken Buck 53-43. D Hold

South Dakota - Brendan Johnson runs to suceed his father, begins as the underdog until Mike Rounds implodes due to the EBI scandal, and Rounds is replaced with Annette Bosworth, who basically gives a Akin-esqe interview. Johnson defeats Bosworth 53-46. D Hold

Iowa - Harkin sweeps re-election against Sam Clovis 64-33. D Hold

Arkansas - IDK. Pryor still loses to Tom Cotton, but it's more like 50-48. R Gain

Louisiana - Landrieu holds on against Rob Maness, who upsets against Cassidy in the jungle primary. D Hold

Kentucky - Adam Edelen defeats Mitch McConnell 52-46 in the biggest shock of the night. D Gain

Mississippi - Chris McDaniel proves to be the biggest Akin of the cycle, and against still-Democrat Gene Taylor (who Thad Cochran actively campaigns for), McDaniel loses by 54-45. D Gain

North Carolina - Kay Hagan easily beats the face of the North Carolina legislature Thom Tillis 55-43. D Hold

Georgia - Michelle Nunn faces off against Paul Broun (who came out on top after a run-off with Phil Gingrey), gets a solid win (within 10). D Gain.

Kansas - Greg Orman's transformational campaign v. the aging Senator Pat Roberts ends with a surprising margin in Ormans favor (53-42). I Gain (D really)

West Virginia - Shelley Moore Capito wins 56-41 against Carte Goodwin. R Gain

Maine - Susan Collins retires to run for Governor in 2018. Republicans nominate a good fighter in Kevin Raye, but he's no match for [Insert Generic Democrat here]. D Gain.

So overall, two Republican pick-ups, Five Democrat pick-ups (3 more seats overall).

A D wave stops Walsh's plagiarism, gets Harkin not to retire, gets Collins to retire, and makes Maness/Broun surge?

[Maxwell]

President Romney is pretty unpopular.

Alaska - Begich dominates Treadwell 54-41. D Hold

Montana - John Walsh narrowly upsets Corey Stapleton 49-48. D Hold

Colorado - Udall dominates Ken Buck 53-43. D Hold

South Dakota - Brendan Johnson runs to suceed his father, begins as the underdog until Mike Rounds implodes due to the EBI scandal, and Rounds is replaced with Annette Bosworth, who basically gives a Akin-esqe interview. Johnson defeats Bosworth 53-46. D Hold

Iowa - Harkin sweeps re-election against Sam Clovis 64-33. D Hold

Arkansas - IDK. Pryor still loses to Tom Cotton, but it's more like 50-48. R Gain

Louisiana - Landrieu holds on against Rob Maness, who upsets against Cassidy in the jungle primary. D Hold

Kentucky - Adam Edelen defeats Mitch McConnell 52-46 in the biggest shock of the night. D Gain

Mississippi - Chris McDaniel proves to be the biggest Akin of the cycle, and against still-Democrat Gene Taylor (who Thad Cochran actively campaigns for), McDaniel loses by 54-45. D Gain

North Carolina - Kay Hagan easily beats the face of the North Carolina legislature Thom Tillis 55-43. D Hold

Georgia - Michelle Nunn faces off against Paul Broun (who came out on top after a run-off with Phil Gingrey), gets a solid win (within 10). D Gain.

Kansas - Greg Orman's transformational campaign v. the aging Senator Pat Roberts ends with a surprising margin in Ormans favor (53-42). I Gain (D really)

West Virginia - Shelley Moore Capito wins 56-41 against Carte Goodwin. R Gain

Maine - Susan Collins retires to run for Governor in 2018. Republicans nominate a good fighter in Kevin Raye, but he's no match for [Insert Generic Democrat here]. D Gain.

So overall, two Republican pick-ups, Five Democrat pick-ups (3 more seats overall).

A D wave stops Walsh's plagiarism, gets Harkin not to retire, gets Collins to retire, and makes Maness/Broun surge?

Here's my reasoning for some of this -

1. Walsh's plagiarism proves to not be such a big issue, and he moves past it because a strong populist campaign.
2. Tea Party is outraged at the Romney administration for their attempts to reform taxes that involves a slight increase in some areas and a general not caring about social issues, so Tea Partiers get more traction in the primary.
3. Incumbents view the Senate as likely to remain in the Democratic Corner, and act accordingly.

Rising stars of today such as Cory Gardner, Steve Daines, and more either choose not to run or lose their primaries (Ernst narrowly loses to Clovis). Plus I just had some fun with this

[Flake]

If the 2014 election had been a Democratic wave equal to the Republican wave this year:

Closest winner would be Landrieu (50.17% runoff), followed by Graham (47.61%).

If the 2014 Governor's elections had a Democratic wave equal to the Republican wave this year:

[Skye]

It's quite hard to tell. While I'm fairly sure Hagan, Begich, Udall, and maybe Landrieu could have survived; Mark Pryor is a whole other story. Would Arkansas "trend" have caught up with him? Or his "strength" would have shown and he would have survived? I certainly don't know. As far as I know, most people didn't expect him to get less than 40% of the vote, which he did by the way. Maybe Roberts could have lost. McConnell too. Iowa could have been hold by the Dems. Georgia would have had a runoff (though it probably would have been won by a Republican). Montana's Walsh probably wouldn't have had his candidacy derailed by that scandal.

[bobloblaw]

why would it be a Dem wave in year 6 of Obama?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

why would it be a Dem wave in year 6 of Obama?

We're speaking in hypotheticals, obviously.

And in any case, keep in mind that the conventional wisdom about 2014 was that it would be a small republican wave because of sixth year itch, but muh demographics, muh democratic gotv, muh local issues, and muh tea party would keep it from being another 2010. It wasn't until October that that belief really started to be abandoned, and at the end, the wave was much bigger than most expected.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan and Ohio would enact SSM equality through legislation.

[NeverAgain]

Dem Wave. Walker would lose, only if the turnout was a bit higher in WI. When I campaigned for Burke, I was shocked to see how many people didn't care about the election. It is a midterm, and I am a Political Nerd, but 60% of the houses I went to were like "Get Off my lawn".

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This was the very map Dems were hoping for, with Michelle Nunn, winning in Jan runoff.

[Sir Mohamed]

Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin go Democratic. Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts stay Democratic.

Georgia and Texas remain Republican. Carter loses in a runoff against Deal 52-48%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin go Democratic. Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts stay Democratic.

Georgia and Texas remain Republican. Carter loses in a runoff against Deal 52-48%.

Jason Carter had to win the runoff,  because Michelle Nunn, would of been the Dems 50th seat, since Mary Landrieu would have lost anyways.