UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Hifly]

Just finished my last round of deliveries. Convincing UKIP-leaners to vote Labour instead is a wonderful feeling. No idea exactly what's going to happen tomorrow.

Tomorrow I'm up from 7am for the next 22 bloody hours. Wish me luck.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov (with sample of ~10,000): Lab 34, Con 34, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 10, Greens 4

[jaichind]

Survation poll.  CON 35 LAB 34 UKIP 12 LD 9 Green 4.

[Phony Moderate]

Also a YouGov Scottish poll: SNP 48, Lab 28, Con 14, Lib Dems 7, Greens 1, UKIP 1

[YL]

Just finished my last round of deliveries. Convincing UKIP-leaners to vote Labour instead is a wonderful feeling. No idea exactly what's going to happen tomorrow.

Tomorrow I'm up from 7am for the next 22 bloody hours. Wish me luck.

Good luck, though I think "Labour gain Kensington" is far too wonderful a thing to actually happen.

[Joe Republic]

The most frustrating thing about this campaign is not the consistently tied polling leading us to have no idea what will happen tomorrow, but rather Torie's habitual misspelling of the word 'Labour'.

[afleitch]

The most frustrating thing about this campaign is not the consistently tied polling leading us to have no idea what will happen tomorrow, but rather Torie's habitual misspelling of the word 'Labour'.

It adds color to the thread.

[Torie]

The most frustrating thing about this campaign is not the consistently tied polling leading us to have no idea what will happen tomorrow, but rather Torie's habitual misspelling of the word 'Labour'.

The American spelling is shorter, and well, I'm American. Sensitive chap aren't you?

[Torie]

The most frustrating thing about this campaign is not the consistently tied polling leading us to have no idea what will happen tomorrow, but rather Torie's habitual misspelling of the word 'Labour'.

It adds color to the thread.

Where have you been?  Working the hustings for the "traitorous" SNP?

[Lurker]

@YouGov: Final YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

The outcome that allows the SNP to force another election at any time of their choosing, assuming that the Tories go along with it. Not good.

It's needs a 2/3s majority to dissolve Parliament now - under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act.

That's option 1. I was thinking of option 2, which does not require a two thirds vote (copy and pasted from the BBC site):

The Fixed-Term Parliament Act - passed by the Lib Dems and Conservatives to make their coalition less likely to collapse - has set the date of the next election in May 2020.
An election can only be held before that date if:

1. Two-thirds of MPs vote for it. In practice, that would mean it would need to be supported by both Labour and the Conservatives

2. A motion of "no confidence" in the government is passed by a simple majority of MPs. An election must then be called within 14 days unless a new government can win a confidence vote before that period is up

Can the Fixed Terms Parliament act be repealed with a simple majority?

[Joe Republic]

The most frustrating thing about this campaign is not the consistently tied polling leading us to have no idea what will happen tomorrow, but rather Torie's habitual misspelling of the word 'Labour'.

The American spelling is shorter, and well, I'm American. Sensitive chap aren't you?

As are about half the posters in this thread.  But hey, I'm sorry your fingers don't have the energy to make a pit-stop half-way between the 'o' and 'r' keys.  Old age must suck.

[Torie]

The most frustrating thing about this campaign is not the consistently tied polling leading us to have no idea what will happen tomorrow, but rather Torie's habitual misspelling of the word 'Labour'.

The American spelling is shorter, and well, I'm American. Sensitive chap aren't you?

As are about half the posters in this thread.  But hey, I'm sorry your fingers don't have the energy to make a pit-stop half-way between the 'o' and 'r' keys.  Old age must suck.

You're absolutely right about the old age bit at least. Joe, just do it, and do it all, while you can. The years go by fast!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can the Fixed Terms Parliament act be repealed with a simple majority?

No parliament can bind its successors.

[Vega]

Can the Fixed Terms Parliament act be repealed with a simple majority?

No parliament can bind its successors.

Woah, so Parliament can't repeal laws passed by another parliament? That's rather surprising.

Shame too. FTPA is a horrible bill.

[Torie]

The sad thing for Labour, and the LD's even more so, is that if Labour were doing just a tad better, than the numbers would be there for a Labour-LD coalition, and the LD's could at once 1) shed the impression among some that they are just Tory wolves in sheep's clothing by joining a Labour government, and 2) get the more leftist half of their agenda enacted, and thereby by oscillating between the two parties, get their whole agenda enacted as if they had had a majority all along, albeit with legislation moving at a very slow pace. That is why it seems to me, Labour falling in the polls just a bit short, gives the Tories a path to power, and an incentive for LD voters in some places to vote Tory, while just the opposite would be the case otherwise, with LD voters having a huge incentive to get rid of the Tories wherever they could.  

In other news, unless I fantasized it all, suddenly the Ashcroft poll has Clegg in trouble again (two points behind Labour), as if the previous poll did not exist. It's amazing the poor man has not turned to hard drugs, to make all the pain to seemingly go away.

I sort of like power moving back and forth between the two parties, with the LD's as a break myself. It gives a chance for each side to test out their claims in the real world. I think that is healthy, given a brake mechanism. Moreover, I see little real difference between Labour and the Tories at this point really. The differences at least vis a vis the American context, seem like rounding error.

[The Free North]

Part of me wishes the American system would experience this type of disorder once in a while.

[Peter]

Can the Fixed Terms Parliament act be repealed with a simple majority?

No parliament can bind its successors.

Woah, so Parliament can't repeal laws passed by another parliament? That's rather surprising.

Shame too. FTPA is a horrible bill.

Exact opposite of what you are interpretting.

The FTPA can be amended or entirely repealed by a simple majority.

Expect it to be.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Woah, so Parliament can't repeal laws passed by another parliament? That's rather surprising.

On the contrary: Parliament can repeal anything it wants to.*

_{*A technical argument does exist about the Act of Union, but lets not start that one up again.}

[Clyde1998]

Survation/Scotland:
SNP 48.9%
Labour 24.8%
Conservatives 15.5%
Liberal Democrats 5.9%

[bullmoose88]

Are Shy Tories a real quantifiable thing?  and more significant than shy lds or labour?

[Vega]

Can the Fixed Terms Parliament act be repealed with a simple majority?

No parliament can bind its successors.

Woah, so Parliament can't repeal laws passed by another parliament? That's rather surprising.

Shame too. FTPA is a horrible bill.

Exact opposite of what you are interpretting.

The FTPA can be amended or entirely repealed by a simple majority.

Expect it to be.

Ahh, thanks.

I haven't heard Miliband say anything about it. Though I suppose it's one of those things that repealing sound unpopular to the uninformed public.

[Хahar 🤔]

Woah, so Parliament can't repeal laws passed by another parliament? That's rather surprising.

On the contrary: Parliament can repeal anything it wants to.*

_{*A technical argument does exist about the Act of Union, but lets not start that one up again.}

Parliament does not have jurisdiction over the Church of Scotland, I thought.

[rob in cal]

I wonder how many Tory MP's there are who are now regretting the defeat of the Alternate Vote in 2011.
 Also, if Britain had the Irish electoral system, this election would have a lot of drama, with lots of fights for the last seat in numerous districts.