UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Zinneke]

It wouldn't make sense to change the leader anyway. The entire party is seen as toxic by those who (stupidly) voted for it as left-liberal alternative to Labour in 2010. That electorate won't touch it for another 10 years. Clegg is the perfect scapegoat as he is still more than capable of saving the LibDems institutionalised bacon in the HoP, but will probably be asked to step down afterwards. Makes no sense putting Tim Farron up for an election slaughter when as mentioned above he represents the branch of the party that is going to desert them this election anyway.

[Blair]

Farage- Looked sweaty and angry but ran well to the right of the Tories on Grammar schools, debt and foreign aid. Good tactic but HIV comment pulled him down 6/10
Surgeon- Looked extremely impressive, both in policy and presentation. Clear winner of the debate. 9/10
Wood- Performed better than I thought, attacked Farage over HIV 6/10
Miliband- Did a good job, but just that. Had to keep defending new Labour, which limited him. Made a good point about Bank Regulation 5.5/10.
Cameron- Sadly, managed to appear above the fray and basically kept saying long term economic plan 5/10
Bennet- Worst performance, didn't get enough time and only seemed to appeal to green voters. Biggest irony is most people didn't know she was an aussie. Appeared flat 3/10

[Phony Moderate]

Last night's YouGov poll has made the Tories happy...happy that it shows them matching Jim Callaghan.

[afleitch]

Last night's YouGov poll has made the Tories happy...happy that it shows them matching Jim Callaghan.

?

[YL]

Jim McGovern, Labour MP for Dundee West since 2005, is a late retirement.  The seat is presumably going SNP regardless.

[Phony Moderate]

Last night's YouGov poll has made the Tories happy...happy that it shows them matching Jim Callaghan.

?

Just a snide remark on my part; on their VI figure last night.

[Phony Moderate]

Dan Hodges was interviewed this morning on the debate and managed to go two minutes without uttering the words 'Ed Miliband'. New record?

[afleitch]

Last night's YouGov poll has made the Tories happy...happy that it shows them matching Jim Callaghan.

?

Just a snide remark on my part; on their VI figure last night.

Yeah, but 37% would equal what they got last time, and best what Blair got in 2005 which by itself would be impressive by any recent standards.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Viewing figures down quite a way on five years ago.

[afleitch]

Viewing figures down quite a way on five years ago.

Well it was a novelty then. Now they seem ten a penny these days

[Vega]

I know what I'll be watching on C-SPAN this weekend!

What time does it come on?

[Clyde1998]

Analysing Farage's HIV/AIDS comment - which is one of the main flash points from yesterday's debate:

"There are 7,000 diagnoses in this country every year for people who are HIV positive, but 60 percent of them are not for British nationals. You can come into Britain, from anywhere in the world, and get diagnosed with HIV, and get the anti-retroviral drugs which cost up to £25,000 per year per patient. I know there are horrible things happening in many parts of the world, but we need to put the system there for British families who have paid into it for decades."

He said 7,000 were diagnosed annually - and 60% weren't British nationals. So 4,200 are non-British nationals, implying £105m is spent annually on non-British nationals with HIV/AIDS or 0.11% of the total NHS budget - assuming his figures are correct (which they're not).

Public Health England says that 6,000 people were diagnosed with HIV in 2013, and 54% [3,240] were foreign-born. Foreign-born doesn't necessarily mean health tourist. Boris Johnson was born in the United States, for example, but he's a British national.

So not only is the comment sickening, but it's also completely wrong factually.

[afleitch]

Because they can't leave us alone over Easter, Survation are apparently spoiling us with a post-debate voting intention poll.

[Clyde1998]

Because they can't leave us alone over Easter, Survation are apparently spoiling us with a post-debate voting intention poll.

UKIP over 20% - I'm certain Survation are over estimating the UKIP vote share at the moment.

[afleitch]

Here we go. Changes on last poll

CON 31 (-1)
LAB 33 (=)
LIB 9 (+1)
UKIP 18 (=)
GRN 3 (-1)

So nothing too exciteable

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Survation's last poll had UKIP on 18% which (as noted already) is notably higher than has been shown by any of the more reputable companies. Frankly they're a very fishy smelling outfit and if they end up getting the final numbers right it will be entirely by accident.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LIB 9 (+1)

CLEGGMANIA

[Phony Moderate]

Whatever happened to those really obscure (and awful) ones who were around at this time five years ago? BPIX and One Poll may have been their names. Also, what about Harris (one of the better pollsters in days gone by) and the hilarious Angus Reid?

[Clyde1998]

So... everyone's up based on yesterday's debate?

[Clyde1998]

Whatever happened to those really obscure (and awful) ones who were around at this time five years ago? BPIX and One Poll may have been their names. Also, what about Harris (one of the better pollsters in days gone by) and the hilarious Angus Reid?

One Poll still exist, but they don't do political polling any more - by the looks of it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whatever happened to those really obscure (and awful) ones who were around at this time five years ago? BPIX and One Poll may have been their names. Also, what about Harris (one of the better pollsters in days gone by) and the hilarious Angus Reid?

Pollsters that do badly struggle to find new clients, particularly if they don't have an established Name. And actually even if they do they can run into difficulty; such was the end of Gallup in Britain for instance.

[afleitch]

Mirror reporting of this poll is hilarious. No move on voting intention,  party leaders up, Miliband moves down by rank as a result.  Useless poll.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We should set up a dodgy polling company of our own. And do what certain American ones did and blatantly make up numbers. All we'd have to do is follow the crowd!

[Clyde1998]

We should set up a dodgy polling company of our own. And do what certain American ones did and blatantly make up numbers. All we'd have to do is follow the crowd!

Our first poll...

Con - 35%
Lab - 34%
UKIP - 12%
Lib - 8%
Grn - 5%
SNP - 4%
Oth - 2%

I asked 1,000 people who exist... honestly...

[Clyde1998]

Conservatives and Labour are starting under pressure over coalition deals with UKIP and the SNP respectively.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32176517