UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Populus: Labour 33, Con 31, UKIP 16, LDem 8, Greens 6

[Hnv1]

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

In the case of the Conservatives in the late 1980s (see ObserverIE's post) although before 1974 the Ulster Unionist Party was technically the NI wing of the Conservative Party. That particular weird little project basically folded by the middle of the 1990s only to be somewhat revived under David Cameron's leadership; the UUP and the Tories ran on a joint slate in 2010 with UUP candidates in some constituencies and Tory ones in others (none were elected). This also resulted in the last UUP MP (left-leaning Sylvia Hermon) to leave the UUP and to seek re-election (successfully) as an Independent Unionist. All of which was rather embarrassing.

Labour's organisational position wrt Northern Ireland is messy. Essentially there is a conflict between the Republican sympathies of many Labour politicians, members and voters over here (which meant that until very recently it was not possible to join the Labour Party if you lived in Northern Ireland), and the fact that most of the people in Northern Ireland who have an interest in politics Labour Party style are notably lacking in Republican tendencies. Before the fall of Stormont this wasn't a big deal because such people could just join the Northern Ireland Labour Party, which was entirely independent from the Labour Party in organisational terms but which had identical policies on most issues. After the NILP collapsed as the civil war intensified in the 1970s, the issue opened up again. The official Labour line until literally a few years ago was that supporters in Northern Ireland could just join the SDLP which, after all, is a fellow PES member and so on (when Kevin McNamara was Labour's NI spokesman - 1987-94 - this position was repeated with particular vehemence). Given that the SDLP is a Nationalist party this did not go down particularly well. In 2004 the small band of campaigners who had been very insistent on this finally got their way; Labour Party membership in Northern Ireland is now allowed. Except that (and much to the annoyance of NI Labour) they are not allowed to run candidates for anything.

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The Telegraph, The Times, The Mail and The Sun will all doubtless endorse the Conservatives, while The Mirror will certainly endorse Labour. The Guardian and The Independent will presumably call for a change in government although we'll have to see whether that will add up to an actual endorsement of Labour. The FT has natural Tory leanings but also has a surprisingly large Labour-ish element high up in the paper, so it's hard to call. The Express had seemed certain to endorse UKIP, but has been running more pro-Tory headlines of late which might indicate a return to tradition.

Cheers for the thorough summary! what is the LibDem stance over NI? I know the liberals were always ok with devolution and were in government thanks to the IN back in the days.

Regarding the papers, that's exactly what I thought (though I'm sure Guardian will come around for Miliband and the independent will say anything but Tories). I assume the FT prefer Blarites rather than old Labour considering their Keynesian tendencies. I'm still perplexed about why Labour circles were unable to form a quality paper for the past 100 years, though their weekly publications are great.

[Phony Moderate]

Populus: Labour 33, Con 31, UKIP 16, LDem 8, Greens 6

Is it me or have they been churning out the exact same figures for the past couple of weeks?

[ObserverIE]

The Northern Ireland Tories actually got 32% in maverick North Down in 1992, standing against the Popular Unionist (a one-person political party, essentially) incumbent James Kilfedder, coming within 3000 votes of taking the seat.  (This was a bit odd as Kilfedder actually took the Tory whip at Westminster.)

But in 1995, Kilfedder died, and in the by-election the Tories collapsed dramatically (even by 1995 standards), getting only just over 2% of the vote.  (The by-election was won by Robert McCartney, who set up his own more or less one-person party, the UK Unionists.)

Even in 1992, they didn't do much outside of North Down.

Kilfedder was a devolutionist; the Tories were hard-line integrationists (as was/is McCartney).

[ObserverIE]

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

In the case of the Conservatives in the late 1980s (see ObserverIE's post) although before 1974 the Ulster Unionist Party was technically the NI wing of the Conservative Party. That particular weird little project basically folded by the middle of the 1990s only to be somewhat revived under David Cameron's leadership; the UUP and the Tories ran on a joint slate in 2010 with UUP candidates in some constituencies and Tory ones in others (none were elected). This also resulted in the last UUP MP (left-leaning Sylvia Hermon) to leave the UUP and to seek re-election (successfully) as an Independent Unionist. All of which was rather embarrassing.

The UUP-Conservative linkup was meant to provide the Conservatives with a few extra seats and the UUP leadership with an infusion of cash and resources for campaigning.

It allowed the local delusionals in the NI Conservatives to pretend that they were a major force in politics, but also meant that they were demanding to be treated as on a par with the much larger UUP, which led to rows over selections. It also allowed a bunch of crypto-Tories with blogs inside the UUP to mount a campaign to drive Hermon out of the party under the illusion that North Down (which was, of course, economically, socially and culturally identical with Surrey) would happily replace her with a Conservative/UUP fusion candidate. The link was talked up by the likes of Slugger O'Toole as a means of transforming NI politics.

It didn't quite work out like that.

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To be honest, I suspect that they would not have a lot more success than their Conservative analogues.

[ObserverIE]

(The by-election was won by Robert McCartney, who set up his own more or less one-person party, the UK Unionists.)

Adding to the weirdness: McCartney unofficially took the Labour whip at Westminster. Further adding to the weirdness: Sylvia Hermon (who defeated him) has done much the same thing.

How much of McCartney's friendliness towards Labour outlasted the Good Friday Agreement and how much of it was due to his association with the likes of Kate Hoey?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To be honest, I suspect that they would not have a lot more success than their Conservative analogues.

Probably not, but this is one of those issues in which the principle of the thing is pretty much the only part that matters to participants...

[ObserverIE]

This article needs to be shared:

Election sketch: Amandeep Singh Bhogal, the Sikh Conservative who wants to end sectarian politics in Northern Ireland

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Not everyone went to Eton! Some people went to Charterhouse!

Never change, Tories.

You don't understand. Banbridge is socially and culturally identical to Tunbridge Wells...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How much of McCartney's friendliness towards Labour outlasted the Good Friday Agreement and how much of it was due to his association with the likes of Kate Hoey?

I'm relying entirely on memory here so might be wrong, but IIRC he mostly stick to the whip (supplied to him by, naturally, Kate Hoey) until his defeat.

The Cruiser was also a member of his joke of a party, as I'm sure you're aware.

[ObserverIE]

How much of McCartney's friendliness towards Labour outlasted the Good Friday Agreement and how much of it was due to his association with the likes of Kate Hoey?

I'm relying entirely on memory here so might be wrong, but IIRC he mostly stick to the whip (supplied to him by, naturally, Kate Hoey) until his defeat.

The Cruiser was also a member of his joke of a party, as I'm sure you're aware.

Well, up to the point when he announced that the best option for Unionists would be to do a deal with the (then) dominant parties in the Republic for a version of a united Ireland rather than wait for demographics within NI to present them with a situation where they would be facing a Nationalist majority. (The Cruiser was well into senility by then and this may have been one of his more lucid moments.)

At which stage the collection of Bible-thumpers and integrationists who had gravitated to McCartney's vision of "secular" Unionism reared up in fury and the Cruiser was forced to scuttle.

(This was only a short time before McCartney's entire Assembly party jumped ship to form the short-lived NIUP.)

[ObserverIE]

what is the LibDem stance over NI? I know the liberals were always ok with devolution and were in government thanks to the IN back in the days.

The stance is to support the current settlement and otherwise hope that they don't have to pay any attention to it.

[Oakvale]

I now expect Miliband to win given that the Mail has gone from attacking him as an autistic geek to as a womanizing player -

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3032823/Red-Ed-s-tangled-love-life-Miliband-s-wife-tells-fury-meeting-unattached-Ed-learn-seeing-hostess-just-one-number-relationships-women-clique.html

[Cassius]

Flanby II...

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 35, Con 33, UKIP 13, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I do hope that Ed is presented as some sort of Don Draper-esque lothario from now on.

[YL]

Class War are standing in Maidenhead.  I wonder which side of the war the candidate thinks he's on.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Class War are standing in Maidenhead.  I wonder which side of the war the candidate thinks he's on.

The 7 constituencies Class War are running in are:

Chingford and Wood Green
Cities of London and Westminster
Croydon South
Lichfield
Maidenhead
Norwich South
Sherwood

That question could be asked of quite a few of those.

[afleitch]

Hmm...

https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/586921688790511616

[Clyde1998]

Hmm...

https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/586921688790511616

John Smith wouldn't recognise the Scottish Labour Party today.

Anyone else notice: "We will guarantee even more powers for the Scotland."

[You kip if you want to...]

Hmm...

https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/586921688790511616

Good grief. Who next? Keir himself?

[Joe Republic]

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

In the case of the Conservatives in the late 1980s (see ObserverIE's post) although before 1974 the Ulster Unionist Party was technically the NI wing of the Conservative Party. That particular weird little project basically folded by the middle of the 1990s

Didn't the UUP help prop up Major's later years after his majority dwindled to nothing?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Didn't the UUP help prop up Major's later years after his majority dwindled to nothing?

Yes, but that was the standard bargain with Unionists (i.e. votes in the Commons in exchange for MOAR MONIES) rather than a rapprochement.

[Silent Hunter]

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

In the case of the Conservatives in the late 1980s (see ObserverIE's post) although before 1974 the Ulster Unionist Party was technically the NI wing of the Conservative Party. That particular weird little project basically folded by the middle of the 1990s

Didn't the UUP help prop up Major's later years after his majority dwindled to nothing?

Also, a bunch of Tories got the whip withdrawn temporarily over Europe.

[Silent Hunter]

George Galloway runs for a seat, it gets ugly

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let us pause for a moment and consider the lie of the land. Polls conducted after the (ridiculous) debate collectively show the Conservatives on between 30% and 36% and Labour on between 33% and 37%. The Liberal Democrats are polling between 7% and 12%, UKIP between 11% and 19%, and the Greens between 3% and 7%.¹ Most of the more extreme figures are from the less well regarded polling companies. There is a tendency in the media to look at this and say (as they have done for months) that the polls point towards another hung parliament. They do not. Due to the electoral system the relationship between votes polled and seats won in Britain is not absolute and is not something that can be securely calculated. Parties have won majorities with very slender leads in the past.² Mostly what the polls point to is a competitive election with an uncertain outcome. They also suggest that a large majority for any party is extremely unlikely. Any inference beyond that point is an example of using data to back up predictions already made, rather than using data to make predictions. Beware.

<sub>1. The Greens are running about sixty seats short of a full GB slate, which will knock their final vote tally down a tad.
2. And very occasionally have actually won majorities despite trailing: the last time this happened was in 1951.</sub>