UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Phony Moderate]

Orkney and Shetland would probably be about the only seat in question on those figures.

[Phony Moderate]

Populus: Lab 36, Con 33, UKIP 14, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

[YL]

Is there any chance the Tories and Lib Dems will try to continue their Coalition government or would they want to avoid such a scenario again?

My assumption is that if they have a majority together (and the Tories haven't done well enough to go on their own) they will continue it.  Andrew George, the Lib Dem defending St Ives, recently said it wouldn't happen, but I expect that the voices in the Lib Dems in favour would outnumber those against.

An "interesting" scenario is if the current coalition loses its majority, but Lab+SNP+Plaid+Green+Respect+SDLP+Hermon don't get one either.  The current electionforecast.co.uk prediction is very close to that: it gives Lab+SNP+Plaid+Greens+SDLP exactly 323 between them, and Con+LD 311.

NB (a) 323 is a majority in practice unless Sinn Féin lose Fermanagh & South Tyrone, in which case it's 324.  (b) The Speaker should be counted as a Tory, even though he isn't one, because of the way the Deputy Speakerships work.

[Clyde1998]

TNS poll for Scotland. Fieldwork ended over a week ago however;


SNP 54% (+2)
Lab 22% (-2)
Con 13%,
Lib 6%
Green 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)

I'm starting to not believe the Scotland polls - I don't think it could be that large an SNP lead...

This poll shows 29% undecided - they could swing back to the party they voted for in 2010 (if they voted in 2010).

Undecided voters - 2010 vote:
Labour - 22%
Lib Dem - 15%
Conservative - 8%
SNP - 6%
Other - 1%
Didn't Vote - 21%
Can't Remember - 27%

If all of them swing back to their 2010 vote - the headline figure would be:
SNP - 42.7%
Lab - 27.3%
Con - 13.7%
Lib - 10.9%
Oth - 5.4%

Don't be surprised to the SNP lead fall, if undecided voters move towards they voted in 2010.

Although undecided voters could just vote for the party that's in the lead going into polling day - so the SNP could still do as well as the polls suggest.

[Phony Moderate]

ICM: Con 35, Lab 32, UKIP 13, Lib Dems 9, Greens 5

[Zanas]

TNS poll for Scotland. Fieldwork ended over a week ago however;


SNP 54% (+2)
Lab 22% (-2)
Con 13%,
Lib 6%
Green 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)

I'm thinking this might be an outlier, but I've been figuring for a few weeks now that the SNP should just come close to 50 %, maybe just not above.

[Phony Moderate]

I'm sure someone will post the full figures, but Ashcroft shows Labour doing well in several UKIP-strong marginals...while being behind by 6% nationally. Either the constituency polls are wrong or the national poll is.

[Lief 🗽]

[rob in cal]

I'm hoping the SNP comes in under 50% but still wins close to 100% of the seats, to help discredit the FPTP system, and to take a little wind out of their sails if they say they speak for Scotland.  Certainly they will represent a big chunk of the Scottish electorate, but if in fact over 50% vote for other parties one would think that would count for something.

[bobloblaw]

I am so glad to see Cameron losing. He has been an example that liberals and moderates in the US say that the GOP should become. Wishy Washy and stand for nothing that elites dont want. UKIP all the way.

[Phony Moderate]

I am so glad to see Cameron losing. He has been an example that liberals and moderates in the US say that the GOP should become. Wishy Washy and stand for nothing that elites dont want. UKIP all the way.

I actually agree with most of that...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As longterm observers of Scottish politics will be aware, TNS (and I would be noting this if, as was the case a few months ago, they were showing figures at the other end of the spectrum) are not the greatest of polling firms and have a tendency to show numbers that at least look exaggerated in one direction or another.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

That's a pretty poor result for UKIP in Yarmouth. I think Farage's comment tieing himself with the Tories was very damaging. Anecdotally, it definitely turned various members of my family who were leaning UKIP back to Labour.

I am so glad to see Cameron losing. He has been an example that liberals and moderates in the US say that the GOP should become. Wishy Washy and stand for nothing that elites dont want. UKIP all the way.

I actually agree with most of that...

They tried being a populist right party during the New Labour years, it didn't work then. Quite frankly, the Tory party has to be 'modernised' (which =/= made more moderate) further, but I doubt Cameron is capable really.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm sure someone will post the full figures, but Ashcroft shows Labour doing well in several UKIP-strong marginals...while being behind by 6% nationally. Either the constituency polls are wrong or the national poll is.

Cashcroft's national poll is as bouncy as hell. I'm not sure who he has doing it. But his constituency polls are by Populus now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Usual caveats about constituency polling applies, but I will admit that this is intriguing. UKIP seemingly out of the running in Grimsby, Cannock,* and even Great Yarmouth (really?), but still perhaps in which a shot - or at least a very good second - in Castle Point? If these polls are right, then they're doing much better in Essex than the rest of the country.

_{*Though I was was always sceptical about that one: they didn't lead there in the 2014 locals even.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They tried being a populist right party during the New Labour years, it didn't work then

With Hague going on about Britain being like "a foreign land" while ranting about "liberal elites", and with Howard's "Are You Thinking What We're Thinking" shtick. Hilarious.

Anyway, the Tories are fundamentally the Party of Property. Ultimately it is in their best interests to reflect whatever the values and views are of those who own it.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Ukip scores lucrative endorsement ... The Moors Murderer himself, Ian Brady

I wonder who Mugabe will back this time around?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah yes. I was about to post that. As for Mugabe, his main priority is hating the Labour Party, so I think he'll stay loyal to the Tories.

[afleitch]

Cashcroft's national poll is as bouncy as hell.

It's not.

First off, in a close race opinion polls should be bouncy. Secondly, Ashcroft's polls have generally shown Conservative leads since January (with two exceptions). Polling companies have different trends (and I know you know this!)

ICM has shown Tory leads since January.

YouGov (who are experimenting with calling back the same panel) has shown a consistent Labour lead since their methodology change in early April.

ComRes has shown a Labour lead to March and a Tory lead since then.

Opinium has shown the same.

MORI has shown a consistent Labour lead

Populus has shown the same.

[Blair]

Surely, lets look at the Ascroft poll. No-one expects labour to get 30%, I mean that's a 1% improvement on 2010, it can't be that bad,

The big problem is UKIP voters coming home in marginals. I don't know what I'd prefer, UKIP fading away or the tories losing. Probably the second

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not.

You mean if you ignore the occasions on when it has been volatile then it has not been volatile? Actually it is less so than it was when it was newer, but I reserve the right to be rude

[YL]

Cashcroft's national poll is as bouncy as hell.

It's not.

First off, in a close race opinion polls should be bouncy. Secondly, Ashcroft's polls have generally shown Conservative leads since January (with two exceptions). Polling companies have different trends (and I know you know this!)

ICM has shown Tory leads since January.

YouGov (who are experimenting with calling back the same panel) has shown a consistent Labour lead since their methodology change in early April.

ComRes has shown a Labour lead to March and a Tory lead since then.

Opinium has shown the same.

MORI has shown a consistent Labour lead

Populus has shown the same.

The thing about all the phone polls (including both Ashcroft and ICM) is that their headline sample sizes of around 1000 get substantially reduced (often to around 500) by excluding don't knows, won't says and won't votes.  This increases the margin of error, and I don't think they're any more volatile than you'd expect given that.

Re ComRes, the difference is between online ComRes (Labour leads, no poll recently) and phone ComRes (mostly Tory leads, with one tie).  MORI are the only phone pollster with Labour leads recently.

Opinium have changed their methodology more than once, and I think the change to Tory leads may be associated with that.

My feeling is that there has been very little movement this year, and the differences are mostly down to methodology and sampling variation.  Obviously I hope YouGov are right; Tories can hope that ICM and Ashcroft (national) are right.

[YL]

BTW Ashcroft has "Others" at 5% (BNP 1%, other others 4%) in Castle Point, although there are no candidates there other than Con/Lab/UKIP/LD/Green.

[Clyde1998]

BTW Ashcroft has "Others" at 5% (BNP 1%, other others 4%) in Castle Point, although there are no candidates there other than Con/Lab/UKIP/LD/Green.

This is a worry with some of these polls - they don't take into account who's standing in that area. There's been a few in Scotland where around 5% say they'll vote Green, but the Greens aren't standing there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Back in 2001 Harold Pinter proudly declared that he was going to cast his vote for the Socialist Alliance,* apparently unaware that there was no SA candidate in his constituency. Of course in 1979 he voted Tory, as did many others of his ilk.

_{*The Artist Currently Performing As Left Unity.}