UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Phony Moderate]

Here we go.

[Phony Moderate]

What is the point with a separate campaign thread?

As explained in the (now locked) previous thread.

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The 'ceiling' (which I assume still exists) refers to Dave's desire to limit threads to a maximum of 2,000 replies for the purposes of bandwidth.

[Phony Moderate]

Oops, accidently deleted your post, politicus.

[politicus]

Oops, accidently deleted your post, politicus.

No accident. No reason to have it when you quoted it.

[Joe Republic]

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So they're predicting with 90% confidence that 324-236 or 244-325 could happen.  How helpful.

[jaichind]

I think 538.com prediction is merely the forecast from http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

[Silent Hunter]

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So they're predicting with 90% confidence that 324-236 or 244-325 could happen.  How helpful.

That's the problem with these estimates, they're less a ball park and more Hyde Park.

[afleitch]

I might run a 'poll of polls' on here. I need to work on the model.

[Clyde1998]

I've constructed a model to give a Scotland poll of polls:

SNP - 43.3%
Lab - 25.5%
Con - 16.8%
Lib - 6.8%
UKIP - 4.3%
Grn - 2.8%
Others - 0.6%

It's based on eleven poll sub-samples from the last seven days - there have been thirteen polls in that time, but the TNS data didn't make sense and Panelbase didn't include regional sub-samples in their poll data.

There are no full-scale Scotland polls in this time frame, but they would count ten times more when there are more.

The polls are weighted by date, so polls from seven days ago are 1/7th less important in the poll that ones from today.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another YouGov London poll: Labour 45, Con 34, LDem 8, UKIP 8, Greens 8

[Blair]

Good old London-too diverse, too educated and too smart to vote UKIP. In the words of there own election strategist

[Phony Moderate]

Fierce battle for third there.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/e9p1am8k02/TimesRedBoxResults_150330_Ed_Miliband_Website.pdf

Milimentum?

I think Labour voters are finally, slowly but surely, starting to fall into line behind Ed.

[Phony Moderate]

The most significant number is 36% saying that he is up to the job of Prime Minister - higher (just) than Labour's VI share. Previously it was way lower.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The anti-Ed campaign the Tories are running may work, but it runs the risk of becoming seen as nasty and cruel, and inadvertently humanise Ed via a healthy dose of pathos. See: The PC's anti-Chretien 1993 campaign.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Plaid Cymru have launched their manifesto. Key pledges include:

Living wage by 2020
1000 more doctors for Welsh NHS
Transfer of justice system and policing to Cardiff
Opposition to Trident (duh)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is their stance on nuclear power still 'its bad except when its on Anglesey'?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes. Both nationalist parties are hilariously hypocritical on energy issues.

[afleitch]

ComRes poll of Labour seats in Scotland point to basically what we already know.

[Clyde1998]

Labour-held seats in Scotland - ComRes Poll:
SNP - 43%
Labour - 37%
Conservatives - 13%
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 2%
Lib Dems - 2%

Poll conducted in the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland - Labour would be left with 12 MPs according to this poll.

[afleitch]

Labour-held seats in Scotland - ComRes Poll:
SNP - 43%
Labour - 37%
Conservatives - 13%
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 2%
Lib Dems - 2%

Poll conducted in the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland - Labour would be left with 12 MPs according to this poll.

If the change on 2010 is applied nationwide you get;

SNP - 43
LAB - 28
CON - 16
LD - 7

So what would be expected.

[You kip if you want to...]

Plaid Cymru have launched their manifesto. Key pledges include:

Living wage by 2020
1000 more doctors for Welsh NHS
Transfer of justice system and policing to Cardiff
Opposition to Trident (duh)

What are Plaid's prospects this time round? Hold Arfon, have an eye on Ynys Mon and hope for a freak swing against the LibDems in Ceredigion?

[Clyde1998]

Labour-held seats in Scotland - ComRes Poll:
SNP - 43%
Labour - 37%
Conservatives - 13%
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 2%
Lib Dems - 2%

Poll conducted in the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland - Labour would be left with 12 MPs according to this poll.

More from this poll.

Which two of the following best represents why you would vote for the SNP? [2015 SNP voters]
I want Scotland to be an independent country - 56% [40% of 2010 Labour voters]
Labour no longer represents people like me - 35% [48% of 2010 Labour voters]
The other parties have broken promises on devolution - 30% [29% of 2010 Labour voters]
The way Labour campaigned with the Conservatives during the referendum - 29% [36% of 2010 Labour voters]
They have the best policies generally - 26% [16% of 2010 Labour voters]
I am voting for a specific local candidate more than for a party - 4% [1% of 2010 Labour voters]
Other Reason - 2% [5% of 2010 Labour voters]
Don't Know - 1% [0% of 2010 Labour voters]

Which two of the following best represents why you are voting for your chosen party? [2015 Non-SNP voters]
I want to keep Scotland as part of the UK - 56%
It's the party that most closely reflects my views - 49%
I don't want a Conservative-led Government - 33%
It's the party with the leader who I most want to be Prime Minister - 16%
I am voting for a specific local candidate more than for a party - 9%
I want to keep Labour out of power - 9%
Other Reason - 2%
Don't Know - 2%

If the General Election results in a hung parliament with the SNP winning a significant number of MPs In Westminster after the General Election in May, which of the following would you most like to see the SNP do? [All voters]
No formal agreement with either party - 41% [41% of SNP supporters]
Support a minority Labour government but not in full Coalition - 21% [33% of SNP supporters]
Join a formal Coalition government with Labour - 21% [19% of SNP supporters]
Join a formal Coalition government with the Conservatives - 5% [1% of SNP supporters]
Support a minority Conservative government but not in full Coalition - 4% [1% of SNP supporters]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even if the overall figures fit into wider patterns, you probably shouldn't over analyse anything ComRes churn out...

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Regarding Plaid, they're under pressure in Arfon and possibly Carmarthen East & Dinefwr. The Island is a law unto itself (of course), while they will be hoping for a repeat of 1992 in Ceredigion (I have no idea how likely or not that is). They always try in Llanelli but have yet to come close. Elsewhere they will make a noise but that's likely it.

Incidentally, it's not entirely impossible that after May there will be no Liberal seats in Wales for the first time since... er... well 'ever' will probably do. Since at least the 1720s if we're counting ancestral parties.

[afleitch]

Even if the overall figures fit into wider patterns, you probably shouldn't over analyse anything ComRes churn out...

---

Regarding Plaid, they're under pressure in Arfon and possibly Carmarthen East & Dinefwr. The Island is a law unto itself (of course), while they will be hoping for a repeat of 1992 in Ceredigion (I have no idea how likely or not that is). They always try in Llanelli but have yet to come close. Elsewhere they will make a noise but that's likely it.

Incidentally, it's not entirely impossible that after May there will be no Liberal seats in Wales for the first time since... er... well 'ever' will probably do. Since at least the 1720s if we're counting ancestral parties.

If Leanne Wood does well at the debate; whether real, perceived or crowned by the media, where might it have an effect, if anywhere?