UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[You kip if you want to...]

Even if the overall figures fit into wider patterns, you probably shouldn't over analyse anything ComRes churn out...

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Regarding Plaid, they're under pressure in Arfon and possibly Carmarthen East & Dinefwr. The Island is a law unto itself (of course), while they will be hoping for a repeat of 1992 in Ceredigion (I have no idea how likely or not that is). They always try in Llanelli but have yet to come close. Elsewhere they will make a noise but that's likely it.

Incidentally, it's not entirely impossible that after May there will be no Liberal seats in Wales for the first time since... er... well 'ever' will probably do. Since at least the 1720s if we're counting ancestral parties.

If Leanne Wood does well at the debate; whether real, perceived or crowned by the media, where might it have an effect, if anywhere?

I'd think the Valleys in the south, but it wouldn't translate into many, if any, seats.

I do think that Leanne Wood has the potential to do well, but chances are, she'll be shouted out by the other 6. She comes across as quite likable and she has the Clegg factor of no one knowing who on Earth she is.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The valleys Labour machine is intense though, and previous PC local experiments have been disasters typically. UKIP will probably create some amount of background rumble in the very white working class seats, but probably only to the extent of wiping out any remaining Tories to about 0.5% of the vote.

[Phony Moderate]

Re: the ComRes Scottish poll. Apparently they included the SNP in the "other parties" category when conducting the poll. Lol...

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Re: the ComRes Scottish poll. Apparently they included the SNP in the "other parties" category when conducting the poll. Lol...

Wow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Leanne Wood does well at the debate

That's a pretty big 'if', to be honest.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 36, Con 35, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 7, Greens 5

[You kip if you want to...]

If Leanne Wood does well at the debate

That's a pretty big 'if', to be honest.

Now now.

Bet she does a section in Welsh, just to really throw the others off.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bet she does a section in Welsh, just to really throw the others off.

That would certainly add an amusing note to proceedings for any Welsh-speakers watching...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wood is about as fluent in Welsh as I am (i.e. Not at all) IIRC

[You kip if you want to...]

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-liberal-democrat-battleground/

Ashcroft back in part of the LD battleground.

Clegg still behind in Hallam, but they've pulled it back in Cambridge. Tories doing well in their targets.

[Blair]

I don't get why Leanne Wood or the SNP are in the debates? Surely have regional debates instead. It's just going to ruin the debates because people will have no idea why some regional party from wales are there

[You kip if you want to...]

I don't get why Leanne Wood or the SNP are in the debates? Surely have regional debates instead. It's just going to ruin the debates because people will have no idea why some regional party from wales are there

That's exactly what Cameron wanted with his flounce over the debates.

[Phony Moderate]

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-liberal-democrat-battleground/

Ashcroft back in part of the LD battleground.

Clegg still behind in Hallam, but they've pulled it back in Cambridge. Tories doing well in their targets.

Tories not doing that well - their vote is down in all but one of those seats - and that one is, ironically, in the constituency with the only Lib Dem MP who could be described as a Eurosceptic. Would be pretty amusing if the Lib Dems did pretty well overall (say, 35-40 seats) and Clegg still lost anyway.  

Oh, and surely a lot of flukeish gains (i.e. the winning party winning the seat with a lower share of the vote than last time) will provide another stick for FPTP opponents post-election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The more people there are in a candidate debate, the duller the candidate debate becomes. And the duller it becomes, the less chance there is of it changing the tone of the campaign. And there's your answer.

As to constituency polls, remember to handle with care. There were a couple of howlers in the recent NSW state election, you might like to note.

[Krago]

For those looking for detailed Westminster Constituency Boundaries maps...

(1)  Great Britain - Here's the Ordnance Survey OpenData Viewer: http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/opendata/viewer/index.html

(2)  Northern Ireland - I couldn't find any, so I made my own: http://goo.gl/mOIbXH

[YL]

As to constituency polls, remember to handle with care. There were a couple of howlers in the recent NSW state election, you might like to note.

Both the Hallam and Cambridge polls were carried out in university vacations.  I don't think this is a good idea in either, especially the latter.  (This may also have been the explanation for Ashcroft's Southampton Itchen apparent outlier; he even suggested that himself at the time IIRC.)

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov's website is now the most impressive UK political website around imo. Check out their election centre: https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre

[afleitch]

YouGov's website is now the most impressive UK political website around imo. Check out their election centre: https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre

The little forecast is interesting, though it's Nowcast suggests 0 Plaid MP'S :/

[YL]

YouGov's website is now the most impressive UK political website around imo. Check out their election centre: https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre

... though they think I live in the West Midlands.

[AelroseB]

Anyone else have a feeling that this will be slightly akin to 1992? 

[Blair]

Anyone else have a feeling that this will be slightly akin to 1992? 

No, not at all. This is a weak example used by tories hoping for a last minute victory

[Blair]

Anyone else have a feeling that this will be slightly akin to 1992?  

No, not at all. This is a weak example used by tories hoping for a last minute victory

I can't wait till you Progress lot are expelled from the party.

Us progress lot? What are you talking about? I'm a proud Miliband supporter, and a proud Labour supporter. I've donated money to the party (despite being a rather tight student) I've traveled to party conferences, I've canvassed dozens of times for labour candidates-is that good enough for you?

[MaxQue]

Anyone else have a feeling that this will be slightly akin to 1992?  

No, not at all. This is a weak example used by tories hoping for a last minute victory

I can't wait till you Progress lot are expelled from the party.

Us progress lot? What are you talking about? I'm a proud Miliband supporter, and a proud Labour supporter. I've donated money to the party (despite being a rather tight student) I've traveled to party conferences, I've canvassed dozens of times for labour candidates-is that good enough for you?

For someone who unashamedly espouses Blair you appear to be peculiarly cavalier. Whether you support Miliband is not the issue.
I'm sure you have been campaigning for certain candidates.
It's a matter of time.

If anything, social conservative fossils like you will be purged first.

[MaxQue]

Anyone else have a feeling that this will be slightly akin to 1992?  

No, not at all. This is a weak example used by tories hoping for a last minute victory

I can't wait till you Progress lot are expelled from the party.

Us progress lot? What are you talking about? I'm a proud Miliband supporter, and a proud Labour supporter. I've donated money to the party (despite being a rather tight student) I've traveled to party conferences, I've canvassed dozens of times for labour candidates-is that good enough for you?

For someone who unashamedly espouses Blair you appear to be peculiarly cavalier. Whether you support Miliband is not the issue.
I'm sure you have been campaigning for certain candidates.
It's a matter of time.

If anything, social conservative fossils like you will be purged first.

Jesus Christ do you know anything?

Who was the only deselected Labour MP this time? The very socially conservtive Bootle one.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbf Benton was deselected because he was becoming lazy and not bothering to turn up to work. Historically Hifly tends to forgive dull backbench hacks (especially in Australia) as long as they make a big noise about being soccon, but the constituency party was err less charmed.

Anyway, it's not the 1980s and Labour doesn't have an entryist problem. Let's cut this talks of purging.