UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Slightly odd story here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32177315

[politicus]

Slightly odd story here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32177315

Labour plant?

[Peeperkorn]

We should set up a dodgy polling company of our own. And do what certain American ones did and blatantly make up numbers. All we'd have to do is follow the crowd!

Our first poll...

Con - 35%
Lab - 34%
UKIP - 12%
Lib - 8%
Grn - 5%
SNP - 4%
Oth - 2%

I asked 1,000 people who exist... honestly...

I'm calling this for Con, +4% victory margin.

[afleitch]

Slightly odd story here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32177315

Labour plant?

Not sure. French denied it, Nicola denied it. Telegraph published the full memo where the writer says he thinks she's been lost in translation. Scottish Labour all over it, some have tracked back while others are still engaged in a Moby Dick style obsession. If it's a stitch up then it's backfired on quite a few faces.

[Blair]

Probably a torygraph smear, seems a bit convient to release it a night after the debates. If I became King that paper would be nationalized

[afleitch]

The consul general in Edinburgh has given an interview denying it. So people in the room are denying it. And the memo itself sort of suggests it didn't happen. It's all very weird. I suppose it's more a matter of now who leaked it, but who wrote it?

For the record, I went to school with the co-reporter on this Telegraph story.

[Phony Moderate]

What is the Torygraph playing at exactly? What's the goal they're aiming for?

[afleitch]

What is the Torygraph playing at exactly? What's the goal they're aiming for?

To discredit Labour and or undermine any cooperation with the SNP. Scottish Labour jumped on it too quickly then backtracked. At least until this morning when Ed, having apparently not been briefed, jumped in to accuse Sturgeon so now Labour have had to run with it again. It was a spiked story in that it wasn't one but may end up shoring up the SNP at Labour's expense.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What is the Torygraph playing at exactly? What's the goal they're aiming for?

A question worth asking because during election campaigns the Torygraph normally doubles up as a press organ of the Conservative Party and the angle of this story doesn't entirely gel with that. Some of the denials have also been strangely worded.

Adding to the oddness is the substance of the claim itself which generally speaking hardly looks serious; a better example of quite how odd Scottish politics has become in recent decades would be hard to find.

C'est bizarre, non?

[Gustaf]

Here is some commentary. Quite confusing situation. :/

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/will-we-find-out-what-nicola-sturgeon-said-to-the-french-ambassador/

[afleitch]

Here is some commentary. Quite confusing situation. :/

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/will-we-find-out-what-nicola-sturgeon-said-to-the-french-ambassador/

There are better commentators than Damian McBride. Like my cat for instance...

[Gustaf]

Here is some commentary. Quite confusing situation. :/

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/will-we-find-out-what-nicola-sturgeon-said-to-the-french-ambassador/

There are better commentators than Damian McBride. Like my cat for instance...

Oh, I'm sure. Just followed this from a Labour friend's post.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

OpiumOpinium/Observer: Labour 33, Con 33, UKIP 14, LDem 7, Greens 7

[Silent Hunter]

Come 8 May, some pollsters are going to look very stupid.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov: Con 34, Labour 33, UKIP 13, LDem 10, Nats 5, Greens 4

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Come 8 May, some pollsters are going to look very stupid.

Probably not nearly as stupid as some ended up looking in 2010 though.

[afleitch]

Panelbase have polled Scotland again. Don't have the full figures as they come from a scanned copy of their front page

SNP 45% (+4)
Labour 29% (-2)

[Silent Hunter]

YouGov: Con 34, Labour 33, UKIP 13, LDem 10, Nats 5, Greens 4

Now, I'm a YouGov member myself, but their daily tracker is all over the map!

[Clyde1998]

Panelbase have polled Scotland again. Don't have the full figures as they come from a scanned copy of their front page

SNP 45% (+4)
Labour 29% (-2)

Con 14% (N/C)
Lib 4% (+1)
Ukip 4% (-3%)
Grn 2% (N/C)

to complete it.

It's Panelbase's second largest led for the SNP over Labour ever (in Westminster polling).

Sample dates: 30th March - 2nd April

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Con 34, Labour 33, UKIP 13, LDem 10, Nats 5, Greens 4

Now, I'm a YouGov member myself, but their daily tracker is all over the map!

Not to sound like Anthony Wells, but with daily trackers you have to look at the trend rather than at the individual polls.

Anyway, leaders' 'well/badly' ratings from YouGov:

Cameron - 47/46
Miliband - 33/59 (the good news for him here is that he's in line with his party's VI for the first time since...maybe ever?)
Clegg - 29/62
Farage - 53/35

So bounces for all of the first three, probably on the basis of their bases (mouthful there!) uniting around them + some of their non-supporters thinking 'Oh, maybe I don't agree with them but look how hard they are working right how." Farage is down...but he was last polled in October of last year so that should be no surprise.

'Better Prime Minister' numbers are Cameron 36, Miliband 24, Farage 8, Clegg 6

[Phony Moderate]

ICM Wisdom Index (asking for an estimate of the party shares on May 7th) has Labour and the Tories both on 32 with the Lib Dems on 14 and UKIP on 12.

A private poll of Thanet South has Con 31, UKIP 30, Labour 29.

[YL]

ICM Wisdom Index (asking for an estimate of the party shares on May 7th) has Labour and the Tories both on 32 with the Lib Dems on 14 and UKIP on 12.

They're still doing that thing?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Carried out by ComedyResults for a UKIP donor (not the one who commissions constituency polls from Survation).  There are some claims about the methodology floating around, but I haven't seen tables yet.  Take with a pinch of salt.

[ChrisDR68]

ICM Wisdom Index (asking for an estimate of the party shares on May 7th) has Labour and the Tories both on 32 with the Lib Dems on 14 and UKIP on 12.

A private poll of Thanet South has Con 31, UKIP 30, Labour 29.

That's the first post on here that's near my prediction of 13.5% for the Lib Dems and 11% for UKIP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ComRes is trash and constituency polling is... well... a curates egg... but if (a huge 'if' the scale of which cannot be expressed enough) that's anything like accurate then UKIP are not certain of winning anywhere in May: not only is Farage their leader and only real 'face', but Thanet was one of their strongest districts in the entire country in the European elections.

[Phony Moderate]

Not entirely on topic, but scroll down to the bottom of this page to the vote breakdowns by class: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemID=101&view=wide

If these are accurate, then the Tories' failure to win an overall majority last time was based almost entirely on their failure to get anywhere near their 1992 levels of support amongst the middle class (in fact they matched their 1997 (!) share in that demographic); they did amongst both C2s and DEs. Will we see a return to more traditional patterns this time, with the Tories losing ground amongst the working-class and Labour amongst the middle-class?