UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Gary J]

Surely another hung parliament must mean the end of FPTP?

Not necessarily. The Conservative and Labour parties both have a very strong self interest in preserving FPTP. Presumably any proportional system would accelerate the decline (and possible fragmentation) of the two largest parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We have a new Populus: Labour 33, Con 31, UKIP 15, LDem 10, Greens 4

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Canadian terms, what the LibDems had built them selves up to by 2010 roughly parallels what the Canadian Liberals had been reduced to by 2011: campus towns a la Guelph/Kingston and the Maritimey "Celtic fringe"...

Broadly speaking, yes. And aren't a load of people on Newfies even descended from West Country families?

[Clyde1998]

Good news for both the Greens and the Lib Dems today, I'd say.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32198938

YouGov's website contains a live (unweighted) poll.

Today Tony Blair is publicly endorsing Ed Miliband. Do you think this will help or hinder the Labour party’s election campaign?

After 10,222 votes:
Help - 15%
Hinder - 50%
Neither - 24%
Don't Know - 11%

The weighted poll goes live at 6pm - so it'll be interesting to see what Labour voters think about this...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually, class-based voting was never as prevalent in Britain as one might have expected in such a society (though I guess there were significant regional variations). It never reached the same extent as class-based voting in the Scandinavian countries during the 50s and 60s, for instance (according to Stein Rokkan, who specialised in comparative politics). I don't remember the reasons for this, though.

Well, yes, in the 50s you had (lets use the classic examples) some solidly proletarian Liverpool seats with Conservative MPs while Labour held a bunch of not-particularly-gritty seats based on large market towns. Class has been the main thing since the 20s, but it has always applied itself in complex ways. Part of the issue was (is) that class in Britain arguably has less in common with the classical sociological understandings of it than it does with caste.

[Blair]

It's a stupid question re Blair. Of course most people will 'think' its a bad thing because most people 'think' TB is unpopular when in fact he's a good opposite of Miliband. I know Blair is a warmongering tory according to most labourites but he's still a voice of reason on the EU

[Zanas]

Do I smell an oh-so-slight increase of voting intention for the LibDems in the last few polls ? They've hit double digits in a few of the latest ones, a thing they hadn't done for a number of weeks, to my knowledge. Is that so ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, they do seem to be up very very slightly, at least for the moment. Of course even 10% represents a loss of a majority (!) of their votes from 2010.

[Phony Moderate]

Not worth much, but the YouGov Scottish internals show a huge gender gap - SNP ahead 52-24 amongst men, 40-34 amongst women.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A peculiarity of YouGov's methodology is that while they're probably one of the more reliable polling companies (though is this really saying a lot he mutters darkly), their internals are best left well alone.

Anyway, a blank Scottish map will be out by the end of the week.

[King of Kensington]

In Canadian terms, what the LibDems had built them selves up to by 2010 roughly parallels what the Canadian Liberals had been reduced to by 2011: campus towns a la Guelph/Kingston and the Maritimey "Celtic fringe"...

That's a very apt comparison.

[King of Kensington]

Broadly speaking, yes. And aren't a load of people on Newfies even descended from West Country families?

Yes, the vast majority of Newfoundland's population is made up of West Country English stock in the rural areas and Irish Catholic in St. John's and the Avalon Peninsula (aka the Irish Shore).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Surely another hung parliament must mean the end of FPTP?

Actual quote from someone way more right-on and constitutionally 'progressive' than me at the time of the AV referendum: 'you know, I rather like dear old First Past The Post.'

[afleitch]

So today's battleground is Europe. And Labour brought it up. Strange times.

[Silent Hunter]

It's a stupid question re Blair. Of course most people will 'think' its a bad thing because most people 'think' TB is unpopular when in fact he's a good opposite of Miliband. I know Blair is a warmongering tory according to most labourites but he's still a voice of reason on the EU

Nearly all of the people who won't vote Labour because Tony Blair turned up weren't voting Labour anyway. That ship not only sailed, its been scrapped under the SDSR.

(It was estimated in 2005 that Iraq cost Labour 3% and 3% only)

[Clyde1998]

I'm listening to the STV debate between the Scottish leaders - Ruth Davidson (Conservative) has said that the Conservatives would attempt to form a majority government if they're the largest party.

Meanwhile, Jim Murphy (Labour) has said that "David Cameron ain't no Lionel Messi"...

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm listening to the STV debate between the Scottish leaders - Ruth Davidson (Conservative) has said that the Conservatives would attempt to form a majority government if they're the largest party.

Meanwhile, Jim Murphy (Labour) has said that "David Cameron ain't no Lionel Messi"...

I didn't watch, but I'm seeing that Sturgeon went full Marois on the neverendum question...

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 35, Con 33, UKIP 14, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

[Clyde1998]

I'm listening to the STV debate between the Scottish leaders - Ruth Davidson (Conservative) has said that the Conservatives would attempt to form a majority government if they're the largest party.

Meanwhile, Jim Murphy (Labour) has said that "David Cameron ain't no Lionel Messi"...

I didn't watch, but I'm seeing that Sturgeon went full Marois on the neverendum question...

She said that she wouldn't rule out another referendum after the 2016 Scottish election, but she didn't say if it would definitely be in or not in the 2016 SNP manifesto.

It's not certain that it will be in it under any terms, but it could be in the manifesto under certain terms (such as Scotland voting to stay in the EU, but the UK leaving).

[Lurker]

So, a generation  = two years, or so, in Scotland.

[Angel of Death]

Surely another hung parliament must mean the end of FPTP?

Actual quote from someone way more right-on and constitutionally 'progressive' than me at the time of the AV referendum: 'you know, I rather like dear old First Past The Post.'

Obviously I'm thinking of proportional representation this time, not AV. Of course, the big question is how the SNP feels about it.

[YL]

(It was estimated in 2005 that Iraq cost Labour 3% and 3% only)

I would argue that, in the context of UK general election swings, 3% is actually quite a lot for a single issue.  And there are still people who won't vote Labour, or are reluctant to do so, because of Iraq; I know some of them.

[I'd be a bit sceptical of any precise claim about how big the effect was, anyway; it's not going to be an easy thing to measure.]

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov 'absolutely certain to vote' figure is 69%. At this point in the 2010 campaign it was 63%. Which would point to a turnout of 71% or so.

[bore]

So, a generation  = two years, or so, in Scotland.

I mean that's true in parts of Glasgow

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Ashcroft constituency polls (salt necessary? Too early to say):