UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 160477 times)
ObserverIE
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« Reply #250 on: April 08, 2015, 07:33:39 PM »

Portsmouth South?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #251 on: April 08, 2015, 07:34:54 PM »

United Russia hold?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #252 on: April 08, 2015, 09:52:09 PM »

Were there any talks between the Tories and UKIP of a limited electoral pact wherein UKIP doesn't run candidates in most marginal seats held by a pro-referendum Tory, and in return the Tories stand down in some Labour held seats that UKIP have visions, however far fetched, of winning?
   This would seem to make a lot of sense if in fact UKIP is serious about wanting a referendum about withdrawal from the EU, as surely it would be help elect more MP's in favor of it.  Or perhaps it would be more of a wash, as so many UKIP voters would then wander over to Labour in many of these Tory marginal seats?
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #253 on: April 09, 2015, 03:17:04 AM »

Here's my forecast using the average of the polls in the first week



Conservatives 273
Labour 302
Liberal Democrats 38
Scottish Nationalists 15
Plaid Cymru 2
Greens 1
Speaker 1

I will be forecasting Northern Ireland once nominations close today
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Diouf
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« Reply #254 on: April 09, 2015, 04:15:38 AM »

Any constituencies with a winner between 25-30% this time do we think?

Electionforecast.co.uk predicts that will happen in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (Plaid 29, Labour 29, Conservatives 21, UKIP 11) and Edinburgh West (Labour 26, SNP 24, Conservative 24, Lib Dems 23)

They predict winners just above 30% in constituencies like Edinburgh North and Leith, Aberdeen South, Watford and Dumfries and Galloway
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afleitch
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« Reply #255 on: April 09, 2015, 05:45:18 AM »

Here's my forecast using the average of the polls in the first week



Conservatives 273
Labour 302
Liberal Democrats 38
Scottish Nationalists 15
Plaid Cymru 2
Greens 1
Speaker 1

I will be forecasting Northern Ireland once nominations close today

Harry, what polls are you using to forecast Scotland?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #256 on: April 09, 2015, 05:49:12 AM »

I was going to say that it's based entirely on GB-wide polls...but in that case the Lib Dems wouldn't be as high as 38.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #257 on: April 09, 2015, 08:07:16 AM »

I was going to say that it's based entirely on GB-wide polls...but in that case the Lib Dems wouldn't be as high as 38.

That is indeed correct, I am using GB wide polls but a doing the following to reflect the SNP and Green surge.

Most polls list the vote share for Con, Lab, Lib Dem, UKIP and Green. Where a poll rating is listed I enter that into my tables. In the 2010 general election, Plaid Cymru polled 9.52% of the total Others vote, the SNP 63.49% and the Others 26.98%, so I allocate the Other vote between those three parties (so in this average) I have Plaid 0.51%, SNP 3.46%, Others 1.47%.

I then enter those numbers into UK-Elect and then add a 1% swing from Lab to Con (difference between the exit poll and the final result) and then add in incumbency for all parties (Con, Lab, Lib Dem incumbents do 2% better than the UK average, Plaid incumbents 4% better and SNP incumbents 5% better) and that is what produces that forecast.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #258 on: April 09, 2015, 08:12:57 AM »

Apparently, David Cameron wanted to appear folksy recently and ordered a hotdog.

And then he ate it with fork and knife, instead of using his hands like a normal person would ...

Wink
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Lurker
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« Reply #259 on: April 09, 2015, 08:53:52 AM »

Here's my forecast using the average of the polls in the first week



Conservatives 273
Labour 302
Liberal Democrats 38
Scottish Nationalists 15
Plaid Cymru 2
Greens 1
Speaker 1

I will be forecasting Northern Ireland once nominations close today

You really should change your methodology as far as Scotland is concerned. Most prediction models have the SNP getting three times as many MPs. If they only win 15 seats it would be one of the worst polling failures in history.
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jaichind
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« Reply #260 on: April 09, 2015, 08:58:56 AM »

Here's my forecast using the average of the polls in the first week



Conservatives 273
Labour 302
Liberal Democrats 38
Scottish Nationalists 15
Plaid Cymru 2
Greens 1
Speaker 1

I will be forecasting Northern Ireland once nominations close today

You really should change your methodology as far as Scotland is concerned. Most prediction models have the SNP getting three times as many MPs. If they only win 15 seats it would be one of the worst polling failures in history.

I agree.  You should use something like http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html which allows you to put in votes share predictions by region which will give a more realistic seats distribution than just a all UK wide polling.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #261 on: April 09, 2015, 09:58:10 AM »

Here's my forecast using the average of the polls in the first week



Conservatives 273
Labour 302
Liberal Democrats 38
Scottish Nationalists 15
Plaid Cymru 2
Greens 1
Speaker 1

I will be forecasting Northern Ireland once nominations close today
Are the seats in white ties?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #262 on: April 09, 2015, 11:00:10 AM »
« Edited: April 09, 2015, 11:04:17 AM by Phony Moderate »

Panelbase: Lab 37, Con 31, UKIP 15, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4
TNS: Lab 33, Con 30, UKIP 19, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4
Survation: Lab 35, Con 31, UKIP 15, Lib Dems 9, Greens 4

Salt, etc.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #263 on: April 09, 2015, 11:04:08 AM »

Panelbase (heaps of salt probably a necessity): Lab 37, Con 31, UKIP 15, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4
That's got the looks of an outlier, without even looking at the datatables...
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #264 on: April 09, 2015, 11:05:13 AM »

Panelbase (heaps of salt probably a necessity): Lab 37, Con 31, UKIP 15, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4
That's got the looks of an outlier, without even looking at the datatables...

Edited in a couple of other polls released today that make it look less so. All three are not exactly highly regarded, it should be noted.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #265 on: April 09, 2015, 11:11:45 AM »
« Edited: April 09, 2015, 11:21:40 AM by You kip if you want to... »

Probably an outlier, but Labour have been creeping up this week.

Survation have Ed's approvals at the highest for 5 years, ahead of the PM.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #266 on: April 09, 2015, 11:28:00 AM »


That's right, the border indicate the party that is in the lead
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Blair
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« Reply #267 on: April 09, 2015, 11:41:36 AM »



Ed's personality ratings are finally above DC, after 4 years haha. I said that when the public got to see him, and got to see his policies they'd move towards him. Nom-doms yesterday, and the Trident smear today have been a gift to Labour. The tories appear to be ing up their campaign
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #268 on: April 09, 2015, 11:45:08 AM »



Ed's personality ratings are finally above DC, after 4 years haha. I said that when the public got to see him, and got to see his policies they'd move towards him. Nom-doms yesterday, and the Trident smear today have been a gift to Labour. The tories appear to be ing up their campaign
Interesting that the nationalist leaders are the top two - is that because of a high number of don't knows?

Great to see Farage's approval rating fall off the edge of a cliff in this poll.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #269 on: April 09, 2015, 04:05:38 PM »

YouGov/Times Scotland Poll:
SNP - 49% (+4%)
Lab - 25% (-3%)
Con - 18% (+2%)
Lib - 4% (+1%)

SNP surge to largest ever YouGov lead.
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afleitch
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« Reply #270 on: April 09, 2015, 04:08:52 PM »

YouGov/Times Scotland Poll:
SNP - 49% (+4%)
Lab - 25% (-3%)
Con - 18% (+2%)
Lib - 4% (+1%)

SNP surge to largest ever YouGov lead.

Unexpected actually.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #271 on: April 09, 2015, 04:10:26 PM »

YouGov/Times Scotland Poll:
SNP - 49% (+4%)
Lab - 25% (-3%)
Con - 18% (+2%)
Lib - 4% (+1%)

SNP surge to largest ever YouGov lead.

Unexpected actually.

Who knew Nicola's tartan was teflon?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #272 on: April 09, 2015, 04:11:20 PM »

ComRes: Con 34, Lab 33, Lib Dems 12, UKIP 12, Greens 4
YouGov: Con 35, Lab 34, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4

For what it's worth, four out of the five UK polls today have shown a shift to Labour. Also, the highest Lib Dem number in a while with ComRes.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #273 on: April 09, 2015, 04:15:10 PM »

YouGov/Times Scotland Poll:
SNP - 49% (+4%)
Lab - 25% (-3%)
Con - 18% (+2%)
Lib - 4% (+1%)

SNP surge to largest ever YouGov lead.

Unexpected actually.
I was expecting Labour to close the gap, but obviously not. Are the Conservatives going to beat Labour in Scotland?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #274 on: April 09, 2015, 04:22:30 PM »

YouGov/Times Scotland Poll:
SNP - 49% (+4%)
Lab - 25% (-3%)
Con - 18% (+2%)
Lib - 4% (+1%)

SNP surge to largest ever YouGov lead.

Unexpected actually.
I was expecting Labour to close the gap, but obviously not. Are the Conservatives going to beat Labour in Scotland?

No.
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