UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 160487 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #275 on: April 09, 2015, 08:12:59 PM »

Thinking about this from a game theory point of view, I think the CON should do the following given the situation in Scotland:  Publicly ask LAB for a CON-LAB pact that which ever party emerges with the largest number of seats, the other party would support the winning party to form a government and would abstain in the vote of confidence. 

If LAB agrees and signs this agreement, then the CON can appeal to UKIP supporters saying "Vote CON to ensure a CON government since UKIP MPs are not necessary to prop up a CON government that will give you a referendum on EU."  While LAB can appeal to SNP supporters in Scotland saying "Vote LAB to make LAB the biggest party and block the CON from forming a government."  It seems to me that the first appeal would be more effective than the second since in Scottish voter eyes, this deal is and attempt to marginalize Scotland and for dignity sake they will more or less still go with SNP.

So say LAB realizes this and rejects this deal.  Then CON can appeal to the centrist voters saying "by rejecting this deal LAB shows it true colors of a secret deal with the far left SNP to form a government while the CON is trying to do everything possible to keep fringe parties like SNP and UKIP from power"  The CON can also appeal to the right, especially UKIP supporters, saying "see, Labor wants hoist the separatist SNP on the UK.  People of England ! Unite behind CON to stop this !" 
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politicus
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« Reply #276 on: April 09, 2015, 08:15:49 PM »


LOL
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #277 on: April 09, 2015, 08:19:20 PM »

some excellent spinning from the grauniad

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« Reply #278 on: April 09, 2015, 08:37:25 PM »

some excellent spinning from the grauniad



Of epic proportions (from the newspaper which led the parade of Cleggmania last time, might I add). Although, we've still not seen anything of Lynton's promised 'crossover' yet and the clock's ticking. The important polling figure to take from today (even if it is Survation) is that Ed's making gains on leadership, and this could neutralise of the Tory's key attacks on Labour.

Although, the Tories should be weary of a narrative starting to build up. They've not had a good few days at all.
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« Reply #279 on: April 10, 2015, 02:00:49 AM »

I see the Conservatives are running in 16 of the 18 NI constituencies (with 11 candidates not from NI).

The two constituencies where they are not standing: Fermanagh-South Tyrone and North Belfast.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/10/one-all-male-constituency-24-candidates-are-female-3-unionist-parties-running-all-male-candidates-ge2015/
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« Reply #280 on: April 10, 2015, 03:29:59 AM »


To be fair, that phrase was within a quotation. But yeah, any party that receives donations from the owner of Stagecoach is most certainly not 'far-left'.
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« Reply #281 on: April 10, 2015, 04:55:48 AM »

More from YouGov's Scotland poll: Sturgeon surges to a 71/23 'doing well/badly' rating; 56% say she won this week's Scottish debate.
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afleitch
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« Reply #282 on: April 10, 2015, 05:52:45 AM »

Miliband's rating in Scotland is up from -53 to -46 and Cameron up from -36 to -25.

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afleitch
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« Reply #283 on: April 10, 2015, 07:22:05 AM »


In retrospect, looking at this poll, The Daily Telegraph played a blinder. It planted a story that it likely knew would fall apart in 30 minutes but not before Scottish Labour had fallen all over themselves to share it amongst themselves. The story was not only ludicrous and out of step with not only SNP policy but public perception of policy but also happened to be Scottish Labour’s only election tactic; to say that the SNP wanted the Tories, which is why they pounced on it. Now the whole line of attack has been blunted. Tory sympathisers can say they are the ‘unionist’ party, against Labour and the SNP and attract a small but useful pool of voters

Miliband was in Edinburgh today. Labour’s new line is to talk about ‘Devo Max, raised by Nicola Sturgeon at the debates, as being too expensive. There’s a problem here. Firstly there is the perception that Devo Max was offered in ‘The Vow’ and the perception that it was reneged upon. This re-affirms that Labour were never serious about the matter. And secondly, you aren’t going to win over Labour Yes supporters who are now backing the SNP by repeating what was said at the referendum which caused them to abandon Labour in the first place.
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« Reply #284 on: April 10, 2015, 07:59:16 AM »

Gorgeous George up to his usual unpleasant tricks in Bradford West. This time he seems to be trying to smear the Labour candidate who says she was forced into marriage at 15. Galloway apparently has received TOP SECRET information that proves she was actually forced into marriage at sixteen and a half.

Of course this does raise the question of how Galloway managed to get access to the private marriage certificate of his opponent.

He also had an imao worthy tweet war with a local pub.
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« Reply #285 on: April 10, 2015, 08:15:47 AM »

Statements of Persons Nominated began being released yesterday. Rotherham is going to be even uglier than expected - aside from UKIP, there is the leader of the BNP and an English Democrat standing there.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #286 on: April 10, 2015, 08:20:59 AM »

The YouGov Scotland poll suggests the SNP are on 61% among 18-24 year olds [9% MoE] and only 9% of the C2DE category thought Murphy won the STV Debate, compared to 63% for Sturgeon.

Is this a short term blip for Labour [in Scottish Westminster voting] - or is it going to be a near-permanent decline for them (like the Conservatives)?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #287 on: April 10, 2015, 08:31:42 AM »

I see the Conservatives are running in 16 of the 18 NI constituencies (with 11 candidates not from NI).

The two constituencies where they are not standing: Fermanagh-South Tyrone and North Belfast.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/10/one-all-male-constituency-24-candidates-are-female-3-unionist-parties-running-all-male-candidates-ge2015/

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

Any bets for how the paper endorsements going to go this time around?
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #288 on: April 10, 2015, 08:37:39 AM »

I see the Conservatives are running in 16 of the 18 NI constituencies (with 11 candidates not from NI).

The two constituencies where they are not standing: Fermanagh-South Tyrone and North Belfast.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/10/one-all-male-constituency-24-candidates-are-female-3-unionist-parties-running-all-male-candidates-ge2015/

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

Any bets for how the paper endorsements going to go this time around?
The Conservative alliance with the UUP seems to have fallen apart - so they're standing their own candidates now.

I think Labour are grouped with the SDLP and the Lib Dems with the Alliance party.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #289 on: April 10, 2015, 08:52:46 AM »

Kippers are also standing in 10 NI seats.

the Tories always feel obliged to run in NI. They are Unionists after all - so they normally have to drag whatever fossils willing to look silly on a stage.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #290 on: April 10, 2015, 08:57:01 AM »
« Edited: April 10, 2015, 08:59:09 AM by ObserverIE »

I see the Conservatives are running in 16 of the 18 NI constituencies (with 11 candidates not from NI).

The two constituencies where they are not standing: Fermanagh-South Tyrone and North Belfast.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/10/one-all-male-constituency-24-candidates-are-female-3-unionist-parties-running-all-male-candidates-ge2015/

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

Any bets for how the paper endorsements going to go this time around?

There has been a local Conservative organisation in Northern Ireland since the late 80s/early 90s (originally consisting of integrationists - people who wanted NI to be governed as an integral part of the UK without any local devolved government and therefore avoiding any power-sharing with the Nationalist community).

They had some modest initial support in the early 1990s in upper middle-class mainly Protestant exurbs of Belfast (Bangor, Holywood, Lisburn) winning some local council seats, but their support collapsed in the mid-90s and hasn't recovered since. They are effectively a micro-party with delusions of grandeur.
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Gary J
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« Reply #291 on: April 10, 2015, 09:16:04 AM »

The Conservative Party was politically linked with the Ulster Unionist Party until 1974. Since then the UUP has been independent of the Conservatives apart from during an electoral pact at the last general election. In recent years the Conservatives have run their own candidates in Northern Ireland with minimal success.

The British Labour Party has never organised in Northern Ireland. It has some international links with the SDLP, who often co-operate with Labour at Westminster.

The Liberal Democrats do have some members in Northern Ireland, but they have not chosen to nominate candidates. The members involved are usually also members of the Alliance Party, which does present candidates. The Alliance Party has international links with the Liberal Democrats and its peers seem to take the Lib Dem whip in the House of Lords. Naomi Long did not do this in the House of Commons, possibly to distance herself from the coalition.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #292 on: April 10, 2015, 09:18:45 AM »

The new conservative line on Miliband is a bit mystifying to me: do they want people to think Miliband is a charmless North London nerd or do they want them to think of him as a slick operator without principles?
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Cassius
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« Reply #293 on: April 10, 2015, 10:24:47 AM »

The new conservative line on Miliband is a bit mystifying to me: do they want people to think Miliband is a charmless North London nerd or do they want them to think of him as a slick operator without principles?

Both. Now that the crunch has finally come, so to speak, I imagine that the Tory high command and associates are getting rather worried by the fact that Labour appear to be experiencing a modest rally of sorts in the polls (not that a lot of them mean much). Now there really going to throw all the sh**te they can at Labour in the hope that some will stick.
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YL
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« Reply #294 on: April 10, 2015, 10:47:59 AM »

The Northern Ireland Tories actually got 32% in maverick North Down in 1992, standing against the Popular Unionist (a one-person political party, essentially) incumbent James Kilfedder, coming within 3000 votes of taking the seat.  (This was a bit odd as Kilfedder actually took the Tory whip at Westminster.)

But in 1995, Kilfedder died, and in the by-election the Tories collapsed dramatically (even by 1995 standards), getting only just over 2% of the vote.  (The by-election was won by Robert McCartney, who set up his own more or less one-person party, the UK Unionists.)

Even in 1992, they didn't do much outside of North Down.

Speaking of GB parties fighting NI elections, there was also a by-election in Upper Bann in 1990 (won by David Trimble).  The Tories stood in that, getting 3%, but the continuing SDP also stood, and did, well, about as well as they famously did in a by-election in Bootle a week later.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #295 on: April 10, 2015, 10:52:51 AM »

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

In the case of the Conservatives in the late 1980s (see ObserverIE's post) although before 1974 the Ulster Unionist Party was technically the NI wing of the Conservative Party. That particular weird little project basically folded by the middle of the 1990s only to be somewhat revived under David Cameron's leadership; the UUP and the Tories ran on a joint slate in 2010 with UUP candidates in some constituencies and Tory ones in others (none were elected). This also resulted in the last UUP MP (left-leaning Sylvia Hermon) to leave the UUP and to seek re-election (successfully) as an Independent Unionist. All of which was rather embarrassing.

Labour's organisational position wrt Northern Ireland is messy. Essentially there is a conflict between the Republican sympathies of many Labour politicians, members and voters over here (which meant that until very recently it was not possible to join the Labour Party if you lived in Northern Ireland), and the fact that most of the people in Northern Ireland who have an interest in politics Labour Party style are notably lacking in Republican tendencies. Before the fall of Stormont this wasn't a big deal because such people could just join the Northern Ireland Labour Party, which was entirely independent from the Labour Party in organisational terms but which had identical policies on most issues. After the NILP collapsed as the civil war intensified in the 1970s, the issue opened up again. The official Labour line until literally a few years ago was that supporters in Northern Ireland could just join the SDLP which, after all, is a fellow PES member and so on (when Kevin McNamara was Labour's NI spokesman - 1987-94 - this position was repeated with particular vehemence). Given that the SDLP is a Nationalist party this did not go down particularly well. In 2004 the small band of campaigners who had been very insistent on this finally got their way; Labour Party membership in Northern Ireland is now allowed. Except that (and much to the annoyance of NI Labour) they are not allowed to run candidates for anything.

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The Telegraph, The Times, The Mail and The Sun will all doubtless endorse the Conservatives, while The Mirror will certainly endorse Labour. The Guardian and The Independent will presumably call for a change in government although we'll have to see whether that will add up to an actual endorsement of Labour. The FT has natural Tory leanings but also has a surprisingly large Labour-ish element high up in the paper, so it's hard to call. The Express had seemed certain to endorse UKIP, but has been running more pro-Tory headlines of late which might indicate a return to tradition.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #296 on: April 10, 2015, 10:57:11 AM »

(The by-election was won by Robert McCartney, who set up his own more or less one-person party, the UK Unionists.)

Adding to the weirdness: McCartney unofficially took the Labour whip at Westminster. Further adding to the weirdness: Sylvia Hermon (who defeated him) has done much the same thing.
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« Reply #297 on: April 10, 2015, 11:17:31 AM »

Could the Murdoch papers sulk over Leveson and refuse to endorse anyone?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #298 on: April 10, 2015, 11:20:09 AM »

Their coverage has been so relentlessly partisan thus far that it seems unlikely.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #299 on: April 10, 2015, 11:44:17 AM »

This article needs to be shared:

Election sketch: Amandeep Singh Bhogal, the Sikh Conservative who wants to end sectarian politics in Northern Ireland

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Not everyone went to Eton! Some people went to Charterhouse!

Never change, Tories.
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