UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Harry Hayfield]

Week Two Forecast
Labour 305 seats
Conservatives 282 seats
Liberal Democrats 25 seats
Other Parties 38 seats



Changes on last week
East Dunbartonshire from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Ross, Skye and Lochaber from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Falkirk from SNP to too close to call (SNP leading)
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Fife North East from too close to call (SNP leading) to SNP
Brecon and Radnorshire from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Cardiff Central from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to too close to call (Lab leading)
Vale of Glamorgan from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr from too close to call (Plaid leading) to Plaid
Bedford from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Peterborough from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Norwich North from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Bermondsey and Old Southwark from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Croydon Central from too close to call (Lab leading) to too close to call (Con leading)
Carshalton and Wallington from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Sutton and Cheam from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to Con
Hornsey and Wood Green from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to Lab
High Peak from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Cannock Chase from too close to call (Con leading) to too close to call (Lab leading)
Dudley South from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Eastleigh from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Eastbourne from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Hove from too close to call (Lab leading) to Lab
Bristol West from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Stroud from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Cheltenham from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Chippenham from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to too close to call (Con leading)
Taunton Deane from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
North Devon from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Torbay from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Cornwall North from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
St. Ives from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to too close to call (Con leading)
St. Austell and Newquay from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Somerton and Frome from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Wells from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Mid Dorset and Poole North from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Berwick upon Tweed from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Redcar from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to Lab
Weaver Vale from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Warrington South from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Cheadle from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
South Ribble from Con to too close to call (Con leading)

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 36, Con 33, UKIP 13, Lib Dems 7, Greens 5

[Phony Moderate]

TNS/BMRB poll of Scotland: SNP 52, Lab 24, Con 13, Lib Dems 6, Greens 3

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

TNS/BMRB poll of Scotland: SNP 52, Lab 24, Con 13, Lib Dems 6, Greens 3

Eeeep

[afleitch]

Week Two Forecast
Labour 305 seats
Conservatives 282 seats
Liberal Democrats 25 seats
Other Parties 38 seats



Changes on last week
East Dunbartonshire from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Ross, Skye and Lochaber from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Falkirk from SNP to too close to call (SNP leading)
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Fife North East from too close to call (SNP leading) to SNP
Brecon and Radnorshire from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Cardiff Central from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to too close to call (Lab leading)
Vale of Glamorgan from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr from too close to call (Plaid leading) to Plaid
Bedford from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Peterborough from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Norwich North from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Bermondsey and Old Southwark from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Croydon Central from too close to call (Lab leading) to too close to call (Con leading)
Carshalton and Wallington from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Sutton and Cheam from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to Con
Hornsey and Wood Green from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to Lab
High Peak from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Cannock Chase from too close to call (Con leading) to too close to call (Lab leading)
Dudley South from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Eastleigh from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Eastbourne from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Hove from too close to call (Lab leading) to Lab
Bristol West from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Stroud from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Cheltenham from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Chippenham from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to too close to call (Con leading)
Taunton Deane from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
North Devon from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Torbay from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Cornwall North from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
St. Ives from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to too close to call (Con leading)
St. Austell and Newquay from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Somerton and Frome from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Wells from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Mid Dorset and Poole North from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Berwick upon Tweed from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Redcar from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to Lab
Weaver Vale from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Warrington South from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Cheadle from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
South Ribble from Con to too close to call (Con leading)

Once again Harry, on what are you basing your Scottish predictions?

[Phony Moderate]

I was just going over which possible or probable MP oustings would please me most and the first names that sprang to mind are all Lib Dems: Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander, David Ward...and of course Mike Hancock, but he is no longer a Lib Dem.

[Clyde1998]

TNS/BMRB poll of Scotland: SNP 52, Lab 24, Con 13, Lib Dems 6, Greens 3

SNP up six on the last TNS poll, Labour down six compared to their late-Jan; mid-Feb poll. This poll was conducted between mid-March and early-April.

Labour in Scotland are attacking the SNP's flagship Full Fiscal Autonomy - which polls show that around 60% of Scots want and Labour are trying to win back Yes voters. Attacking FFA, the closest thing to independence on offer, is not going to convince supporters of independence. Additionally, lots of Scots wouldn't want Trident renewed or there being further budget cuts - the SNP are opposed to both. The SNP also support a higher minimum wage than Labour.

The SNP lead is massive among people of 'Twitter age' (55% of Twitter users are between 18 and 49)  - the Yes campaign had around 70% of traffic during the referendum, and I think it's one of the main reasons Yes reached 45% (without it, Yes would've been around 35%, IMO). In fact, polling showed Yes won among people of 'Twitter age'. My Twitter, and Facebook, feeds are full of people giving accurate figures that Scottish Labour are twisting - or show them for what they are. One that caught my eye yesterday was 62 Labour MPs employ people on zero-hour contracts.

I think Labour are all but finished in Scottish Westminster elections in the near future.

[You kip if you want to...]

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

[Clyde1998]

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The trouble is, the SNP basically want to turn Scotland into a tax haven - which is obviously kind of irritating for Labourites.

[Clyde1998]

The trouble is, the SNP basically want to turn Scotland into a tax haven - which is obviously kind of irritating for Labourites.

The SNP support raising the £150k tax rate to 50% - same as Labour.

[You kip if you want to...]

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

That's the thing, Labour'll never support independence, that's just not the party that it is.

The problem is, Labour are trying to make traditional class politics play to an electorate where identity politics has definitely become the new flavour of the month. The SNP will get themselves into trouble when a selection of voters, eventually, in a few year, get tired and the party over plays the 'identity' card and it starts to alienate people - as happens in plenty of separatist movements, the world over. The SNP won't want to gain a reputation over the next 10-15 years as 'the party of no'.

[bore]

Scotland is going to be an utter bloodbath.

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

That is the one of the worst arguments for or against anything that I've ever heard.

[You kip if you want to...]

Scotland is going to be an utter bloodbath.

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

That is the one of the worst arguments for or against anything that I've ever heard.

Again, it's the politics of identity that has taken over north of the border.

Plenty of swathes of the country in the North of England and Wales voted overwhelmingly against the Tories in 2010 and still got the Tories, but that's how elections work, as upsetting as that may be.

[Clyde1998]

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

That's the thing, Labour'll never support independence, that's just not the party that it is.

The problem is, Labour are trying to make traditional class politics play to an electorate where identity politics has definitely become the new flavour of the month. The SNP will get themselves into trouble when a selection of voters, eventually, in a few year, get tired and the party over plays the 'identity' card and it starts to alienate people - as happens in plenty of separatist movements, the world over. The SNP won't want to gain a reputation over the next 10-15 years as 'the party of no'.

If they're members of the SNP - they'll be expelled from the party. That goes against Party rules - assuming it descends into racism.

I hope that it doesn't end up like that - the party has never done this (as far as I can see). I'm glad Salmond didn't blame "money and the English vote" (slightly modified) for the referendum defeat, unlike a certain party that tried to cushion themselves up to the SNP during the campaign...

[Clyde1998]

Scotland is going to be an utter bloodbath.

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

That is the one of the worst arguments for or against anything that I've ever heard.

In what way?

A majority of Scottish voters want Full Fiscal Autonomy (according to polling) and the only party proposing it (who have a chance of winning a seat) is the SNP. The SNP generally act in the Scottish national interest - unlike the unionist parties (as they have to worry about winning votes elsewhere in the UK).

[bore]

Scotland is going to be an utter bloodbath.

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

That is the one of the worst arguments for or against anything that I've ever heard.

In what way?

A majority of Scottish voters want Full Fiscal Autonomy (according to polling) and the only party proposing it (who have a chance of winning a seat) is the SNP. The SNP generally act in the Scottish national interest - unlike the unionist parties (as they have to worry about winning votes elsewhere in the UK).

Maybe it becomes clearer why exactly that argument is so bad if you try and phrase it as a syllogism:

P1 In 2010 Scotland mainly voted for Labour
P2 After 2010 the Conservatives formed a government
C Therefore Scotland should not vote for Labour

It's functionally equivalent to saying the people of Perth should vote for Labour this time, because in 2010 they voted for the SNP and got a Tory government.

Added to that, even if the SNP had won 59 seats in 2010, a Conservative government would still have been formed with the SNP completely powerless to stop it.

[Phony Moderate]

Any predictions for turnout? Around two-thirds with YouGov say the chances of them voting is 10/10 (and that number will probably rise as we get closer to electon day, although actual turnout tends to be a bit lower than that number), and in Scotland it is over 80%. I'll predict that it just scrapes the 1997 figure of 71%ish.

[Clyde1998]

Scotland is going to be an utter bloodbath.

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

That is the one of the worst arguments for or against anything that I've ever heard.

In what way?

A majority of Scottish voters want Full Fiscal Autonomy (according to polling) and the only party proposing it (who have a chance of winning a seat) is the SNP. The SNP generally act in the Scottish national interest - unlike the unionist parties (as they have to worry about winning votes elsewhere in the UK).

Maybe it becomes clearer why exactly that argument is so bad if you try and phrase it as a syllogism:

P1 In 2010 Scotland mainly voted for Labour
P2 After 2010 the Conservatives formed a government
C Therefore Scotland should not vote for Labour

It's functionally equivalent to saying the people of Perth should vote for Labour this time, because in 2010 they voted for the SNP and got a Tory government.

Added to that, even if the SNP had won 59 seats in 2010, a Conservative government would still have been formed with the SNP completely powerless to stop it.

A lot of people voted Labour in Scotland on the basis of stopping Conservative governments - and didn't vote for other parties because of the fear of this occurring.

The point is referring to the fact that Scotland's votes don't usually decide who the government is - so this is an attempt to stop people from falling into the old trap of voting Labour to stop the Tories. There were/are people who vote Labour in UK elections and SNP in Scottish elections for this reason. It's these people who this is mainly aimed at.

The SNP were ~20% in 2010 and ~45% in 2011.
Labour were ~40% in 2010 and ~25% in 2011.

There's potentially a huge number of people that this would be aimed at.

[Tender Branson]

The Tories open a 6-point lead in the new Guardian/ICM poll:



ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 1042 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 10-12 April 2015. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/conservatives-six-point-lead-guardian-icm-poll-labour

[Tetro Kornbluth]

An important article here from the Grauniad on different methods of polling this election and their accuracy.

En fin: I don't even know what is going on any more.

[Phony Moderate]

That's the narrative for this week then.

Aside from the obvious difference from other recent polls, the Greens are slightly higher than their current average and UKIP are (much) lower...not the only ICM to have seemingly strange numbers in recent months either; their December poll had the Tories in the 20s IIRC.

ICM is either going to be massively vindicated or its credibility to going to take a huge blow on May 7th...it would be nice if we had polls from them more than once every couple of centuries or so, though.

[Simfan34]

Very nice! Sad it's just noise. Sadder indeed that with the Scotland thing it's probably best for the country that Labour win...

[Torie]

An important article here from the Grauniad on different methods of polling this election and their accuracy.

En fin: I don't even know what is going on any more.

One can speculate about different polling methods all day long, but the ICM poll showed a five point move to the Tories from their last poll, presumably using the same polling methods. Odds are some of the move is just statistical noise within the margin of error.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

An important article here from the Grauniad on different methods of polling this election and their accuracy.

En fin: I don't even know what is going on any more.

One can speculate about different polling methods all day long, but the ICM poll showed a five point move to the Tories from their last poll, presumably using the same polling methods. Odds are some of the move is just statistical noise within the margin of error.

Everything I read indicates it is a rogue poll (look at subsamples)

In contrast here is Ashcroft's poll: CON 33 LAB 33 LD 9 UKIP 13 GP 6