UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM are sounding a little embarrassed by the poll and are briefing that maybe people shouldn't be reading too much into it. Which is unusually contrite for any polling company, but outright shocking for one as congenitally bullish as ICM.

[Torie]

ICM are sounding a little embarrassed by the poll and are briefing that maybe people shouldn't be reading too much into it. Which is unusually contrite for any polling company, but outright shocking for one as congenitally bullish as ICM.

Yes, the polling company itself said the sample was a tad Tory bloated. Any sense as to whether or not the Green voters give a damn whether they tank Labor or not?  One of the guessing games is how much UKIP voters tactically vote Tory versus Green's tactically voting Labor. The movement to the Tories in this last poll as noted in the article is mostly about the Green vote going up, and the UKIP vote going down. The suggests that the Green voters don't care much if they let Cameron keep the keys to 10 Downing Street.

[Phony Moderate]

For the record, there was an infamous rogue poll during the 1997 campaign from ICM; it showed a 5-point Labour lead - by far the lowest of the Blair leadership up to that point.

[DL]

That's the narrative for this week then.

ICM is either going to be massively vindicated or its credibility to going to take a huge blow on May 7th...it would be nice if we had polls from them more than once every couple of centuries or so, though.

No one will care what their poll said three weeks before the election - they will be judged based on what their final poll says the day before the election.

[Phony Moderate]

That's the narrative for this week then.

ICM is either going to be massively vindicated or its credibility to going to take a huge blow on May 7th...it would be nice if we had polls from them more than once every couple of centuries or so, though.

No one will care what their poll said three weeks before the election - they will be judged based on what their final poll says the day before the election.

Will there even be one? This is their first poll of the (two week old) campaign and they have only been conducting them on a monthly basis. They were far more regular in 2010.

[You kip if you want to...]

Take it as just another poll until the rest start showing it.

ICM normally do have weird results, but their final one will be the yard stick people use for election night.

Another reason could be that UKIPers are wavering towards undecided. Under ICM's model, I think a chunk just get assigned back to the Tories then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's worth noting that it is conventionally assumed that one in ten polls from a given pollster will be 'wrong', due to the unavoidable difficulties of getting a genuinely accurate sample and so on. I mention this specifically because the internals of this one are really screwy: I suspect that they (rather than the odd headline figures) are why ICM have suggested that salt is required before consumption.

[You kip if you want to...]

It's worth noting that it is conventionally assumed that one in ten polls from a given pollster will be 'wrong', due to the unavoidable difficulties of getting a genuinely accurate sample and so on. I mention this specifically because the internals of this one are really screwy: I suspect that they (rather than the odd headline figures) are why ICM have suggested that salt is required before consumption.

I seem to remember every other ICM getting labeled as an outlier...

[bore]

It's worth noting that it is conventionally assumed that one in ten polls from a given pollster will be 'wrong', due to the unavoidable difficulties of getting a genuinely accurate sample and so on. I mention this specifically because the internals of this one are really screwy: I suspect that they (rather than the odd headline figures) are why ICM have suggested that salt is required before consumption.

I seem to remember every other ICM getting labeled as an outlier...

Maybe they're just really really really really unlucky.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps they broke a mirror or something.

[Harry Hayfield]

The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

[You kip if you want to...]

The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

Well this could get interesting...

[Phony Moderate]

The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

Oh for 's sake. Why can't they just allow the electorate the option of voting for a dead person ala Missouri 2000. ing British electoral laws.

[MaxQue]

The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

No, it won't. He was an independent, and, so, the election is continuing as planned.

[Phony Moderate]

The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

No, it won't. He was an independent, and, so, the election is continuing as planned.

[You kip if you want to...]

The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

No, it won't. He was an independent, and, so, the election is continuing as planned.

As glad as I am it'll still go ahead, what f'in bizarre technicality in the law that it doesn't count if you're an indie.

[Clyde1998]

The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

No, it won't. He was an independent, and, so, the election is continuing as planned.

As glad as I am it'll still go ahead, what f'in bizarre technicality in the law that it doesn't count if you're an indie.

It's because they won't be replaced. If it was a party, they can replace them with a new candidate - which would take a bit of time.

[YL]

Time for some more salt: we have some more Ashcroft constituency polls.  Most of these are ones which need about a 5% swing for Labour to win.

Cleethorpes: Con 2 ahead of Lab
Crewe & Nantwich: Lab 3 ahead of Con
Dover: Con 8 ahead of Lab
Dudley South: Con 4 ahead of Lab
Finchley & Golders Green: Lab 2 ahead of Con
Harlow: Con 10 ahead of Lab
Milton Keynes South: Lab 2 ahead of Con
North East Somerset: Con 16 ahead of Lab (I suppose voters tend to like "characters")
Rossendale & Darwen: Con/Lab tie
South Ribble: Con/Lab tie

[You kip if you want to...]

Time for some more salt: we have some more Ashcroft constituency polls.  Most of these are ones which need about a 5% swing for Labour to win.

Cleethorpes: Con 2 ahead of Lab
Crewe & Nantwich: Lab 3 ahead of Con
Dover: Con 8 ahead of Lab
Dudley South: Con 4 ahead of Lab
Finchley & Golders Green: Lab 2 ahead of Con
Harlow: Con 10 ahead of Lab
Milton Keynes South: Lab 2 ahead of Con
North East Somerset: Con 16 ahead of Lab (I suppose voters tend to like "characters")
Rossendale & Darwen: Con/Lab tie
South Ribble: Con/Lab tie

Yeah, Halfon and Rees-Mogg are two who'll hold on until their personal vote goes stale.

Again, Labour are beating the Tories on the ground. Important for obvious reasons, postals, GOTV, etc.

Finchley's probably the most interesting. It's the furthest Tory seat down Labour's list to change hands of all the seats Ashcroft's polled ever. They could take Finchley and struggle in seats as high up the list as Pudsey and Gloucester.

Crewe, which is quite far down the Labour target list, had an over inflated majority because of the by-election, of course.

If you believe Ashcroft's marginal polling (again, salt needed) Labour should be on for about ~50-60 gains, while losing about ~30-35 in Scotland.

[You kip if you want to...]

Thought. Is this 'he stabbed David in the back' meme that's reemerged over the last fortnight an attempt by Lynton Crosby to play the Rudd-Gillard game?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As I think I've noted before, Labour have a very good candidate in Finchley so a surprisingly good Labour figure there does not come as a shock. Anyway, intuitively most of those don't look particularly dodgy (just so long as you remember that even more than national polls these are indicative more than they are anything else) and do fit in with the pattern of better Labour performances in the North and London than elsewhere. Not sure about the Dudley South figure though, but we'll see.

[You kip if you want to...]

As I think I've noted before, Labour have a very good candidate in Finchley so a surprisingly good Labour figure there does not come as a shock. Anyway, intuitively most of those don't look particularly dodgy (just so long as you remember that even more than national polls these are indicative more than they are anything else) and do fit in with the pattern of better Labour performances in the North and London than elsewhere. Not sure about the Dudley South figure though, but we'll see.

Yeah, the regional swings I think are going to be odd. It's not entirely inconceivable that Labour hit all but 1-2 targets in the North West, while missing out on loads in the South and the Midlands.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, but that would not be odd: swings with a distinct regional dimension have been the norm in British elections since basically ever. The narrowness of Wilson's victory in '64 was largely down to a poor result in the West Midlands, while Labour's recovering in 1935 was much stronger in places that had been hit particularly bad by the Depression. And I'm not so sure about missing out on loads in the Midlands: all indications here - as is so often the case - is that all is to play for...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems that there is a very strong Independent candidate running in East Devon (a safe Tory seat). Normally local government independents who try to transfer to General Elections are lucky to poll 10%, but there are indications that this one might be a little different.

[Simfan34]

North East Somerset: Con 16 ahead of Lab (I suppose voters tend to like "characters")

Isn't Labour running some American there? Serves them right.