UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, but I suspect it's more that Dan Norris isn't running again.

[Simfan34]

Well that seat (and its predecessors) had long been safe Tory before, no? So it shouldn't be terribly surprising. Won't claim to be an expert, though, just a fan of Rees-Mogg (which should surprise absolutely no one).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was (in one form or another) Tory from 1950 until 1997, though until the 70s you'd have called it reliable rather than safe.

[You kip if you want to...]

It seems that there is a very strong Independent candidate running in East Devon (a safe Tory seat). Normally local government independents who try to transfer to General Elections are lucky to poll 10%, but there are indications that this one might be a little different.

Although, after a quick Google, I see she's not at all UKIPy, I feel like UKIP would have to give an independent a free run in this part of the world if they were to win.

[YL]

It seems that there is a very strong Independent candidate running in East Devon (a safe Tory seat). Normally local government independents who try to transfer to General Elections are lucky to poll 10%, but there are indications that this one might be a little different.

Although, after a quick Google, I see she's not at all UKIPy, I feel like UKIP would have to give an independent a free run in this part of the world if they were to win.

Some of the generic protest vote which has attached itself to UKIP might well consider an Independent, even one who, as you say, isn't at all UKIPy.  If she could combine that with a large chunk of the ABT vote then she could do pretty well, but it'd be amazing if she actually won, given that I can't see any of the sort of unusual circumstances that are usually associated with Independent wins.  And I think that part of the world has been Tory essentially since the Precambrian.

[Silent Hunter]

UKIP have a problem in that their only national figure of note is Farage. If he had died in that plane crash on the polling day last time, they'd be a much smaller party.

And there's no guarantee he'll win Thanet South this time, which is his personal requirement to stay leader.

[Phony Moderate]

I hold the view that Diane James would be a more successful leader; she comes across as a Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond.

[Harry Hayfield]

I hold the view that Diane James would be a more successful leader; she comes across as a Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond.

That is the view of the only UKIP supporter in our village here in Ceredigion. He believes that Nigel Farage alienates as many people as he attracts and that Diane James would "bridge the gap between Conservatives and UKIP"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tonights YouGov: Labour 35, Con 33, UKIP 13, LDem 8, Greens 5

[ChrisDR68]

Tonights YouGov: Labour 35, Con 33, UKIP 13, LDem 8, Greens 5

The polls are moving as fast as an asthmatic ant with some heavy shopping.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

On a completely unrelated note, I like scrolling through this thread and seeing the multichromatic repeated UK avatars. It has a very pleasing Pop Art aesthetic.

Also although manifesto launch day is all very important yadda yadda, what really brought my attention is the fact that some crazy has apparently restarted the Whigs!

Choice quote: “once you’ve got over the barrier of explaining it’s with an ‘h’, it’s not about hair, people are interested”.

[adma]

I hold the view that Diane James would be a more successful leader; she comes across as a Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond.

The Marine Le Pen to Farage's Jean-Marie Le Pen?

[You kip if you want to...]

I hold the view that Diane James would be a more successful leader; she comes across as a Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond.

The Marine Le Pen to Farage's Jean-Marie Le Pen?

Nah. Farage isn't quite JMLP yet and Diane James is probably way more moderate and level headed than MLP.

[Phony Moderate]

I'm going to predict that by this time next week the Lib Dems will have taken a point or two off both Labour and the Tories to 'surge' to 12-13%. The 'moderate hero' message that Clegg is pitching today (and will presumably continue to pitch) goes down very well in some quarters. Plus, the Lib Dems almost always enjoy at least a modest increase in the two to three weeks before polling day.

[Clyde1998]

Usual constituency poll warnings:

East Dunbartonshire (Lib Dem poll)
Lib - 34.5% (-4.2% on 2010)
SNP - 32.1% (+21.6%)
Lab - 16.2% (-17.9%)
Con - 13.1% (-2.4%)
Grn - 2.0% (+2.0%)
UKIP - 0.7% (-0.4%)

This is a Lib Dem poll - so it's likely that it's weighted to benefit the Lib Dems. Apparently Ashcroft are polling there right now, which would give an indication on what non-partisan (or as close as we're going to get) polling says. East Dunbartonshire was 39% Yes in the referendum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remembering the one of Hornsey & Wood Green they put out a while ago then it is almost certainly a push poll and should be ignored.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regarding the earlier discussion; I'm not convinced that UKIP actually need (and I suspect would not in any case want) a calmer leader less prone to publicity stunts and metaphorical firebombs. Remember that this is a party without a loyal electorate or a firm social base that thrives (on those occasions when it thrives) on grumbles and discontent...

[You kip if you want to...]

If the Libs honestly think they've got a chance in Hornsey and Dunbarton, then... well, I think they'll be more than shell shocked on election night.

To fall from 24% to 7-10%, then votes need to be being lost somewhere. I mean, how do they explain adding votes on last time and still losing seats?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another YouGov Wales poll: Labour 40, Con 23, UKIP 13, Plaid 12, LDem 6, Greens 4

Insert the usual remarks.

[You kip if you want to...]

If the Libs honestly think they've got a chance in Hornsey and Dunbarton, then... well, I think they'll be more than shell shocked on election night.

To fall from 24% to 7-10%, then votes need to be being lost somewhere. I mean, how do they explain adding votes on last time and still losing seats?

And while I'm on the topic, ComRes released a poll of the SW Con-LD marginals (ahem, stay with me) showing them down 22%. Not sure what seats they polled though.

[Clyde1998]

Another YouGov Wales poll: Labour 40, Con 23, UKIP 13, Plaid 12, LDem 6, Greens 4

Insert the usual remarks.

If this is to be believed:

Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP are level on the YouGov March poll; Conservatives and Greens down one; Plaid up three.

What does everyone think of the YouGov nowcast - is it actually worth anything, or is it just a bit of fun?

[You kip if you want to...]

Another YouGov Wales poll: Labour 40, Con 23, UKIP 13, Plaid 12, LDem 6, Greens 4

Insert the usual remarks.

If this is to be believed:

Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP are level on the YouGov March poll; Conservatives and Greens down one; Plaid up three.

What does everyone think of the YouGov nowcast - is it actually worth anything, or is it just a bit of fun?

Just a bit've fun, but then most forecasts usually are.

[YL]

What does everyone think of the YouGov nowcast - is it actually worth anything, or is it just a bit of fun?

They haven't revealed their methodology in full, so I can't really tell how sensible it is, but without a variety of reliable constituency polls it's hard to do a good 538 style prediction in the UK.  (They're using their own data, but they don't really have enough members in each constituency IMO.)

That said, it seems to look reasonably plausible in most places.

[YL]

Usual constituency poll warnings:

East Dunbartonshire (Lib Dem poll)
Lib - 34.5% (-4.2% on 2010)
SNP - 32.1% (+21.6%)
Lab - 16.2% (-17.9%)
Con - 13.1% (-2.4%)
Grn - 2.0% (+2.0%)
UKIP - 0.7% (-0.4%)

This is a Lib Dem poll - so it's likely that it's weighted to benefit the Lib Dems. Apparently Ashcroft are polling there right now, which would give an indication on what non-partisan (or as close as we're going to get) polling says. East Dunbartonshire was 39% Yes in the referendum.

There are two things which have to be borne in mind with this poll on top of any concerns about constituency polling in general.

Firstly, the Lib Dems chose the methodology, and as Al said, if their Hornsey & Wood Green poll is anything to go by it may have been quite dodgy methodology.  In H & WG they asked favourability questions about the candidates before the voting intention question, which gives me an excuse to post this.

Secondly, we've been told that the Lib Dems have commissioned an awful lot of these polls, around 100.  However, only three (I think) of them have actually had figures released to the press; it would be naïve to assume that those three were a representative selection.  Indeed, it wouldn't surprise me if this is not the only poll that they've commissioned of East Dunbartonshire, but it is the one where they decided to release the numbers...

PS: today's YouGov says Lab 35 Con 34 UKIP 13 Lib Dem 8 Green 5 SNP/Plaid 5.

[YL]

Ipsos MORI phone poll: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 10 Green 8 Lib Dem 7.  They were ramping this as "definitely worth watching"...