UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 160462 times)
morgieb
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« Reply #400 on: April 16, 2015, 07:19:08 AM »

Ipsos MORI phone poll: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 10 Green 8 Lib Dem 7.  They were ramping this as "definitely worth watching"...
Lib Dems 5th, lol.
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bore
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« Reply #401 on: April 16, 2015, 11:24:13 AM »

Good to see the LIB DEM SURGE!!111!!! is definitely a real thing that's happening.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #402 on: April 16, 2015, 12:13:45 PM »

BBC Debate tonight at 8pm - Miliband, Farage, Sturgeon, Wood and Bennett.

Cameron not taking part


Clegg isn't either. My local Lib Dem PPC is claiming that he wasn't invited by the broadcasters...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #403 on: April 16, 2015, 12:30:58 PM »

Ipsos MORI phone poll: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 10 Green 8 Lib Dem 7.  They were ramping this as "definitely worth watching"...

MORI were the first to whore themselves out in their press releases and are still the worst for it. I presume those headline figures are their usual Certains Only ones? What are the Everyone figures?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #404 on: April 16, 2015, 12:47:23 PM »

Richard 'Dirty' Desmond, pornographer and media magnate, has donated a £1 million to UKIP. As everyone knows, Desmond owns The Daily Express and The Daily Star and used to own Channel Five.
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YL
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« Reply #405 on: April 16, 2015, 12:58:52 PM »

Ipsos MORI phone poll: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 10 Green 8 Lib Dem 7.  They were ramping this as "definitely worth watching"...

MORI were the first to whore themselves out in their press releases and are still the worst for it. I presume those headline figures are their usual Certains Only ones? What are the Everyone figures?

The Everyone figures are Lab 35 Con 32 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 8 SNP 5.  (The SNP are also on 5 in the Certains Only ones.)  So not much difference this time.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #406 on: April 16, 2015, 01:07:38 PM »

I still don't get why they do that you know.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #407 on: April 16, 2015, 01:14:21 PM »

Ipsos MORI phone poll: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 10 Green 8 Lib Dem 7.  They were ramping this as "definitely worth watching"...

MORI were the first to whore themselves out in their press releases and are still the worst for it. I presume those headline figures are their usual Certains Only ones? What are the Everyone figures?

The Everyone figures are Lab 35 Con 32 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 8 SNP 5.  (The SNP are also on 5 in the Certains Only ones.)  So not much difference this time.
The SNP figure will depend on how Scotland's weighted.

Taking the last YouGov polls for the UK and Scotland - turnout could give the SNP 5% of the total vote - of those certain to vote (10/10):
UK - 69%
Scotland - 81%
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #408 on: April 16, 2015, 01:19:02 PM »

What does everyone think of the YouGov nowcast - is it actually worth anything, or is it just a bit of fun?

They haven't revealed their methodology in full, so I can't really tell how sensible it is, but without a variety of reliable constituency polls it's hard to do a good 538 style prediction in the UK.  (They're using their own data, but they don't really have enough members in each constituency IMO.)

That said, it seems to look reasonably plausible in most places.

It does seem to be quite vulnerable to outside manipulation though. Sigh.
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afleitch
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« Reply #409 on: April 16, 2015, 01:58:47 PM »

What does everyone think of the YouGov nowcast - is it actually worth anything, or is it just a bit of fun?

They haven't revealed their methodology in full, so I can't really tell how sensible it is, but without a variety of reliable constituency polls it's hard to do a good 538 style prediction in the UK.  (They're using their own data, but they don't really have enough members in each constituency IMO.)

That said, it seems to look reasonably plausible in most places.

It does seem to be quite vulnerable to outside manipulation though. Sigh.

It's all algorithms, so it makes some assumptions about areas based on demographics and it doesn't seem to be doing anything 'better' or even different than regional polls/constituency polls are doing. Any model that doesn't tell you why it's doing what it's doing (and even old fashioned swing at least explains itself) isn't really worth anything.

It will be worth keeping an eye on when we reach the final few days at which point all models should be no longer forecasting but predicting.
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Hifly
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« Reply #410 on: April 16, 2015, 02:27:32 PM »
« Edited: April 16, 2015, 02:47:36 PM by Hifly »

Opposition leaders' debate right now. The first question was Ed bashing from all fronts. This is probably how it will continue.
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YL
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« Reply #411 on: April 16, 2015, 02:34:55 PM »
« Edited: April 16, 2015, 02:37:19 PM by YL »

Farage just had a go at the audience.

... and then Sturgeon demolished him.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #412 on: April 16, 2015, 02:41:19 PM »

Opposition leaders' debate right now. The first question was Ed bashing on all fronts. This is probably how it will continue.
He's getting attacked from the left by Sturgeon, Wood and Bennett and by a xenophobe in Farage.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #413 on: April 16, 2015, 04:00:27 PM »

Didn't watch it, but saw some clips. All I can ask is what on earth was Farage doing?!!!!? He completely turned into a Mail Online commenter. I thought the man, for all his faults, had some degree of restraint. Unbelievable.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #414 on: April 16, 2015, 04:30:56 PM »

Survation poll on 'who won?': Miliband 35, Sturgeon 31, Farage 27, Bennett 5, Wood 2
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #415 on: April 16, 2015, 04:41:54 PM »

Survation poll on 'who won?': Miliband 35, Sturgeon 31, Farage 27, Bennett 5, Wood 2
35% is roughly what Labour is polling at.

A few questions that will be answered with the data tables:
Was Miliband preaching to the converted?
How did Conservative/Lib Dem voters split?
How well did Miliband do among Scottish voters?

I think Miliband only did as well as he did in the polls due to moderate Conservative voters and Lib Dem voters siding with him tonight.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #416 on: April 16, 2015, 04:45:34 PM »

Performed the “best”?
Nicola Sturgeon - 35%
Ed Miliband - 29%
Nigel Farage - 26%
Natalie Bennett - 5%
Leanne Wood - 5%
 
Performed the “worst”?
Nigel Farage - 36%
Natalie Bennett - 21%
Ed Miliband - 18%
Leanne Wood - 17%
Nicola Sturgeon - 6%

Survation net performance
Nicola Sturgeon - +29%
Ed Miliband - +11%
Nigel Farage - -10%
Leanne Wood - -12%
Natalie Bennett - -16%

http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=e17762efe2cccb1f0ed943c1f&id=8f6f97df25
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #417 on: April 16, 2015, 04:51:07 PM »

Who should be Prime Minister - Miliband or Cameron?

Miliband - 45%
Cameron - 40%

That's terrible news for David Cameron (see what I did there?). But the audience was almost certainly to the left of the population as a whole, so meh.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #418 on: April 16, 2015, 04:51:51 PM »

Who should be Prime Minister - Miliband or Cameron?

Miliband - 45%
Cameron - 40%

That's terrible news for David Cameron (see what I did there?). But the audience was almost certainly to the left of the population as a whole, so meh.
Is that because the average Briton is to the left though?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #419 on: April 16, 2015, 04:59:52 PM »

Who should be Prime Minister - Miliband or Cameron?

Miliband - 45%
Cameron - 40%

That's terrible news for David Cameron (see what I did there?). But the audience was almost certainly to the left of the population as a whole, so meh.
Is that because the average Briton is to the left though?

Well, let me put it another way: few Conservative voters watched the debate, presumably. Tongue Still, this poll is 'historic' - the first time Miliband has ever been ahead of Cameron on this question.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #420 on: April 16, 2015, 05:03:53 PM »

Scotland sub-sample data:
Peformed "best"Sad
Sturgeon - 71.6%
Miliband - 16.1%
Wood - 4.5%
Farage - 4.2%
Bennett - 3.5%

Performed "worst"Sad
Farage - 59.4%
Miliband - 17.3%
Wood - 15.5%
Bennett - 6.1%
Sturgeon - 1.8%

Net result:
Sturgeon +69.8%
Miliband -1.2%
Bennett -2.6%
Wood -11.0%
Farage -55.2%
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #421 on: April 16, 2015, 05:07:49 PM »

There wasn't really any way that Sturgeon could lose from these debates, short of a Gerald Ford 1976 style gaffe. The others could only attack her on her desire for independence...which about half of Scots support. The whole "Vote SNP, get the Tories" argument was/is weak and pretty embarassing tbh.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #422 on: April 16, 2015, 05:08:34 PM »

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Post-Debate-Poll-Tables.pdf

Only 55% of those who play to vote Labour thought Miliband performed best. 34% thought Sturgeon did best.

To answer my earlier question:

Conservative voters:
37.5% - Farage
37.4% - Sturgeon
15.7% - Miliband
4.9% - Bennett
4.5% - Wood

Lib Dem voters:
57.4% - Sturgeon
21.9% - Miliband
11.7% - Farage
7.6% - Wood
1.4% - Bennett
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #423 on: April 16, 2015, 05:11:37 PM »

There wasn't really any way that Sturgeon could lose from these debates, short of a Gerald Ford 1976 style gaffe. The others could only attack her on her desire for independence...which about half of Scots support. The whole "Vote SNP, get the Tories" argument was/is weak and pretty embarassing tbh.
Being involved in these debates will stop Scotland from thinking it's all about Labour and the Tories. The others don't know how to confront the SNP - I saw a poll that suggested that around 50%(ish) of SNP supporters take it as a personal insult to attack the SNP. You're not winning those people back in a hurry.

The SNP vote share may hold up until polling day - it probably wouldn't if they hadn't been involved.
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Blair
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« Reply #424 on: April 16, 2015, 05:16:39 PM »

Tbh I'm of the opinion that no matter what Ed does, he's not gonna win in scotland. Labour could come out against trident, and bring back clause IV and it wouldn't make a difference. The scots want to feel good about themselves and embrace the SNP.

Ed looked more prime ministerial tonight, real challenge is that most people didn't watch it
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