UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 160452 times)
Clyde1998
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« Reply #425 on: April 16, 2015, 05:20:57 PM »

This is interesting:

% of those asked by voting intentions:
Lab - 32.7%
Con - 25.2%
Ukip - 18.8%
Oth - 9.9%
Und - 8.1%
Lib - 5.2%

Hmm...
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #426 on: April 16, 2015, 05:21:18 PM »

Most people didn't watch the first 2010 debate either; not saying that there will be a big Labour surge, but the most important thing about these debates (in terms of their effect) is how they are portrayed by the media in the aftermath.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #427 on: April 16, 2015, 05:25:28 PM »

Tbh I'm of the opinion that no matter what Ed does, he's not gonna win in scotland. Labour could come out against trident, and bring back clause IV and it wouldn't make a difference. The scots want to feel good about themselves and embrace the SNP.

Ed looked more prime ministerial tonight, real challenge is that most people didn't watch it
Saw this on Facebook:


Ed looked more prime ministerial tonight, real challenge is that most people didn't watch it
Miliband was the only one there tonight, who could become Prime Minister. He had to look like PM material - and I think he did alright.

I think he'll depend on the SNP though...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #428 on: April 16, 2015, 05:35:05 PM »

Nothing else on telly at that hour this time, so I watched it. Not particularly edifying, but then a debate using that format is never going to be. Miliband put in a good solid performance which (from my partisan perspective) is the main thing.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #429 on: April 16, 2015, 05:37:57 PM »

Though it's worth noting that Farage was... off. He lost it a couple of times and even insulted the audience. His closing statement was embarrassing: he was sweating profusingly, breathing heavily and his speech seemed rushed.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #430 on: April 16, 2015, 05:41:48 PM »
« Edited: April 16, 2015, 05:50:22 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

I thought Miliband's performance was pretty impressive. I apologize in advance for my American-style analysis but I thought Ed Miliband seemed very "prime ministerial". Normally, I would not say something like this as if it mattered but I think this campaign has had the effect of erasing Miliband's perceived negative qualities, which were related to his personality.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #431 on: April 16, 2015, 05:49:46 PM »

I thought Miliband's performance was pretty impressive.
Miliband performed well tonight. Compared to Sturgeon, he didn't win the debate for me.
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Vega
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« Reply #432 on: April 16, 2015, 06:47:33 PM »

Though it's worth noting that Farage was... off. He lost it a couple of times and even insulted the audience. His closing statement was embarrassing: he was sweating profusingly, breathing heavily and his speech seemed rushed.

Yeah, that was a bit odd. Especially since it was Nigel Farage.

Maybe he had one pint too many.
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adma
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« Reply #433 on: April 16, 2015, 07:51:22 PM »

Though it's worth noting that Farage was... off. He lost it a couple of times and even insulted the audience. His closing statement was embarrassing: he was sweating profusingly, breathing heavily and his speech seemed rushed.

Yeah, that was a bit odd. Especially since it was Nigel Farage.

Maybe he had one pint too many.

And the fact that 26% still deemed his the best performance shows how the Keyes Constant rules in the UK, too
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #434 on: April 17, 2015, 01:02:42 AM »

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-voter-says-my-buttocks-5528390
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afleitch
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« Reply #435 on: April 17, 2015, 06:15:06 AM »

While you’re all waiting, I used date from the 2007 results (which I published on here last year) to estimate how Scotland would have looked at ward level in 2011. Below is the same thing…but for 1992




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YL
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« Reply #436 on: April 17, 2015, 08:23:08 AM »

Polls (all online, all released in the last 24 hours or so):

YouGov: Lab 34 Con 34 UKIP 14 Lib Dem 7 Green 5 SNP/Plaid 5
Populus: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 14 Lib Dem 9 SNP 5 Green 4
Panelbase: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 16 Lib Dem 8 SNP 4 Green 4
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #437 on: April 17, 2015, 08:26:11 AM »

Polls (all online, all released in the last 24 hours or so):

YouGov: Lab 34 Con 34 UKIP 14 Lib Dem 7 Green 5 SNP/Plaid 5
Populus: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 14 Lib Dem 9 SNP 5 Green 4
Panelbase: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 16 Lib Dem 8 SNP 4 Green 4
At least they're all starting to agree with each other now...
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #438 on: April 17, 2015, 10:34:19 AM »

New Ashcroft Scotland polls



All I can say is wow.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #439 on: April 17, 2015, 10:51:56 AM »

Surely, surely, surely he can't continue if he loses his own seat, right?
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« Reply #440 on: April 17, 2015, 11:29:29 AM »

That Con gain in Steel's old seat is quite interesting. Will the Lib Dem vote there be squeezed? And if it does, which party will be the benefactor? (I.e. Would unionists try to prop up the Tories, or is there a reflexive 'anyone but the tories' instinct?)
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Hifly
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« Reply #441 on: April 17, 2015, 01:12:38 PM »


This is now old news.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #442 on: April 17, 2015, 01:13:41 PM »

I see that now... Sad
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« Reply #443 on: April 17, 2015, 01:41:40 PM »

To put the Glasgow SW swing into some context, the largest GE swing between Labour and the Tories since 1945 was around 19% - Brent North, 1997.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #444 on: April 17, 2015, 01:42:37 PM »

If those recent polls that are actually tallying the SNP, then there has been a marked change. At the 2010 general election the SNP won 14.31% of the Others vote (UKIP + Green + Plaid + SNP + Others). According to those recent polls they are winning nearly 21% of the Others vote.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #445 on: April 17, 2015, 01:50:39 PM »

To put the Glasgow SW swing into some context, the largest GE swing between Labour and the Tories since 1945 was around 19% - Brent North, 1997.

Largest swing (from two parties contesting the same seat in sequential elections) since 1987


1987: Western Isles (Lab GAIN from SNP) on a swing of 19.33% from SNP to Lab
1992: Glasgow, Govan (Lab HOLD) on a swing of 21.31% from Lab to SNP
1997: Brent North (Lab GAIN from Con) on a swing of 18.83% from Con to Lab
2001: Kingston and Surbiton (Lib Dem HOLD) on a swing of 15.92% from Con to Lib Dem
2005: Lagan Valley (DUP GAIN from UUP) on a swing of 38.13% from UUP to DUP
2010: Blaenau Gwent (Lab GAIN from Ind) on a swing of 29.17% from Ind to Lab
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #446 on: April 17, 2015, 02:37:08 PM »

If those recent polls that are actually tallying the SNP, then there has been a marked change. At the 2010 general election the SNP won 14.31% of the Others vote (UKIP + Green + Plaid + SNP + Others). According to those recent polls they are winning nearly 21% of the Others vote.
The SNP are listed as a separate entity in the data tables.

However, I should point out that it's possible that SNP support is being downplayed (amazingly), as Ashcroft weights by 2010 voting intentions. Many Scots may get confused between how they voted in 2010 and 2011 - due to the vastly different results. For example, 2010 Labour voters may say they voted SNP, due to voting for them in 2011. The 2010 recalled vote method should work well in England though.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #447 on: April 17, 2015, 02:43:24 PM »

British politics is looking pretty Canadian right now. Tongue
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Gustaf
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« Reply #448 on: April 17, 2015, 03:31:42 PM »

In contemporary British political culture, how much does biggest party status count for when forming a government?
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #449 on: April 17, 2015, 04:06:42 PM »

In contemporary British political culture, how much does biggest party status count for when forming a government?
As Jim Murphy keeps saying - the last time that largest party didn't form the Government was 1924. I should point out that we've only had four hung parliaments since universal suffrage (I think) - so it's a 75% success rate for the largest party forming the government in the event of a hung parliament.
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