UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 160450 times)
Diouf
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« Reply #450 on: April 17, 2015, 04:19:58 PM »

In contemporary British political culture, how much does biggest party status count for when forming a government?

There is of course, unlike what Jim Murphy hints at, no requirement for it to happen. Especially since most models predict that the Conservatives and Labour, unlike 2010, won't be very far apart in terms of seats.
For most of the parties who pretty clearly belong to one side or another, e.g. SNP, UKIP, Greens, then it does not matter at all. However, the Lib Dems could do as last time and say that they will start out by talking to the largest party, but perhaps with the result we are looking at, it might make more sense to talk to the largest fraction of parties first. The DUP has not commited to either Labour or the Conservatives yet, and could choose the largest party or largest fraction strategy as well. Their position is discussed here: http://cambridgeglobalist.org/2015/04/16/forget-the-snp-what-about-the-dup/

However, the right-wing media will of course go crazy if Ed forms a government despite the Conservatives being the largest party. Even if there is no real possibility for Cameron to gather a majority.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #451 on: April 17, 2015, 06:00:15 PM »

I'm aware there is no rule, which is why I used the formulation I did. I have the impression that in some countries with a FPTP tradition the largest party can be viewed as having a mandate to the extent that it becomes difficult for another party to form a government. In a country like Sweden this is not the case at all. I was wondering to what extent that may affect things.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #452 on: April 17, 2015, 06:57:49 PM »

To put the Glasgow SW swing into some context, the largest GE swing between Labour and the Tories since 1945 was around 19% - Brent North, 1997.

That's more a case of placing it into a misleading context though: Labour-Tory swings are much lower than between any other combination of parties (one of several reasons why they're more interesting actually). The 'swing' to the Liberals in Southwark & Bermondsey in 1983 was around 36%, for instance (more recently the 'swing' in Brent East in 2005 was 30.6).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #453 on: April 17, 2015, 07:15:38 PM »

Just to clear this up: the convention is that the Sovereign appoints as Prime Minister the person who is most likely to be able to command the confidence of the House. If there is a majority government, then matters are blissfully simple. If not, the convention is that the previous Prime Minister retains office (effectively as a caretaker) until it becomes clear who that person is. Technically they have the right to tough it out even if their position is hopeless and wait to be voted down by the Commons, but this feels... archaic. There aren't really any rules beyond that, though in practice the largest party has a significant advantage, even if it isn't the incumbent party (see 1974).
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #454 on: April 18, 2015, 03:06:17 AM »

YouGov poll of 18-24 year-olds which is fairly old in terms of when the fieldwork was done but hey: Lab 34, Con 23, Greens 20, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, SNP/PC 5, Others 1

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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #455 on: April 18, 2015, 06:06:01 AM »

However, the right-wing media will of course go crazy if Ed forms a government despite the Conservatives being the largest party. Even if there is no real possibility for Cameron to gather a majority.


Of course they will; I can imagine some possible civil disobedience if that happened.
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YL
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« Reply #456 on: April 18, 2015, 06:11:40 AM »

Is there any mainland Scottish seat which anyone feels confident that the SNP won't win?
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politicus
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« Reply #457 on: April 18, 2015, 06:26:42 AM »
« Edited: April 18, 2015, 06:35:28 AM by Charlotte Hebdo »

Is there any mainland Scottish seat which anyone feels confident that the SNP won't win?

The ones along the border (Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Dumfries, Galloway and Upper Nithsdale).
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #458 on: April 18, 2015, 06:34:39 AM »

Is there any mainland Scottish seat which anyone feels confident that the SNP won't win?

A good number of the Glasgow ones.
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morgieb
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« Reply #459 on: April 18, 2015, 07:30:24 AM »

Is there any mainland Scottish seat which anyone feels confident that the SNP won't win?
Orkney & Shetlands?

EDIT: Misread the mainland qualifier.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #460 on: April 18, 2015, 09:25:51 AM »

Given the polling and the fact that it seems to be more in line with the referendum result than the Hollyrood elections I wouldn't be surprised if the SNP actually did better in Glasgow than in Edinburgh. In which case, I'd say there is a good chance of Labour holding Edinburgh North and Leith.
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bore
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« Reply #461 on: April 18, 2015, 11:19:58 AM »

I think my own seat of Edinburgh South is even less likely to fall than Edinburgh North and Leith and may even be one of the last in the country. In 2010 it had the second lowest number of SNP votes in the country after Orkney and Shetland and the major compeitition to Labour last time were the Lib Dems, who are now running pretty much no campaign at all.

For reference, these are the Edinburgh constituency referendum results:

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afleitch
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« Reply #462 on: April 18, 2015, 11:28:47 AM »

Glasgow more than Edinburgh, Coatbridge more than Airdrie, West Dunbartonshire more than East Dunbartonshire, Paisley more than Newton Mearns, Aberdeen North more than Aberdeen South. And so on.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #463 on: April 18, 2015, 12:17:15 PM »

It seems likely that both parties will poll better in Glasgow than in Edinburgh. Actually given the relatively similar patterns of support for both in central Scotland (something likely to be even truer than before if we assume referendum voting patterns will play a big role) the actual distribution of seats could well look almost random.
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afleitch
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« Reply #464 on: April 18, 2015, 12:34:20 PM »

Worth noting that the SNP vote was more uniform in Edinburgh than Glasgow which allowed it to outperform in a more crowded field. The SNP relative to other parties would have to underperform on 2011 in Edinburgh to not make an almost clean sweep there.
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bore
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« Reply #465 on: April 18, 2015, 01:01:58 PM »

To state the obvious, if we're talking about an SNP performance which is short of a clean sweep then the question to answer is whether their vote pattern follows 2011 or 2014.

I think the constituency polls and the fact that this Westminster surge is largely the result of the referendum suggests that the SNP vote pattern will follow 2014, so I can definitely see Labour hanging on at least in South and North and Leith.

The other important thing to note is that even if the SNP vote pattern follows 2011 there are factors in Edinburgh that would still suggest a Labour overperformance. For instance, in Edinburgh Southern the SNP got 29.4% and Labour got 27.4%, but because of Mike Pringle's popularity the Lib Dems got 24.6%.  The Lib Dems will get a fraction of that this time and you'd expect those more of those votes to flow to Labour than the SNP.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #466 on: April 18, 2015, 01:50:09 PM »



Blank map of Scottish constituencies (which leaves just Northern Ireland to do). Might be a few errors that need fixing and I've not added the Shetland and the Orkney's yet, so treat it as a beta version or something.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #467 on: April 18, 2015, 02:32:46 PM »

Is there any mainland Scottish seat which anyone feels confident that the SNP won't win?

These are the least likely to be SNP gains (based on % swing)
41   Inverclyde   Labour   14,416   19.22%
42   Glasgow North West   Labour   13,611   19.40%
43   Glenrothes   Labour   16,448   20.31%
44   West Dunbartonshire   Labour   17,408   20.59%
45   Paisley & Renfrewshire South   Labour   16,614   20.90%
46   East Renfrewshire   Labour   10,420   20.96%
47   Motherwell and Wishaw   Labour   16,806   21.48%
48   Rutherglen & Hamilton West   Labour   21,002   22.35%
49   Glasgow South West   Labour   14,671   23.08%
50   Coatbridge   Labour   20,714   24.88%
51   Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath   Labour   23,009   25.21%
52   Orkney and Shetland   Liberal Democrat   9,928   25.71%
53   Glasgow North East   Labour   15,942   27.10%
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #468 on: April 18, 2015, 03:34:36 PM »

Is there any mainland Scottish seat which anyone feels confident that the SNP won't win?

These are the least likely to be SNP gains (based on % swing)
41   Inverclyde   Labour   14,416   19.22%
42   Glasgow North West   Labour   13,611   19.40%
43   Glenrothes   Labour   16,448   20.31%
44   West Dunbartonshire   Labour   17,408   20.59%
45   Paisley & Renfrewshire South   Labour   16,614   20.90%
46   East Renfrewshire   Labour   10,420   20.96%
47   Motherwell and Wishaw   Labour   16,806   21.48%
48   Rutherglen & Hamilton West   Labour   21,002   22.35%
49   Glasgow South West   Labour   14,671   23.08%
50   Coatbridge   Labour   20,714   24.88%
51   Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath   Labour   23,009   25.21%
52   Orkney and Shetland   Liberal Democrat   9,928   25.71%
53   Glasgow North East   Labour   15,942   27.10%


So if the swing that Ashcroft shows in Glasgow SW (33.5%) is accurate and is repeated in Glasgow NE, the SNP will gain the latter seat with a lot to spare...
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #469 on: April 18, 2015, 04:51:45 PM »

Labour 3 ahead with YouGov, Tories 4 ahead with Opinium.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #470 on: April 19, 2015, 12:28:43 AM »

    Are there any seats in England where UKIP is not fielding a candidate?  If so those seats might be nice test cases for UKIP's impact on the Tory vote %.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #471 on: April 19, 2015, 12:30:40 AM »

    Are there any seats in England where UKIP is not fielding a candidate?  If so those seats might be nice test cases for UKIP's impact on the Tory vote %.

No, only in Scotland.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #472 on: April 19, 2015, 07:17:03 AM »

General Election Forecast (Week Three)

Taking the advice of members from last week, I am now doing England and Wales and Scotland as separate forecasts (and combining them after the forecasts)

Conservatives 268 (leading in 15)
Labour 243 (leading in 18)
Liberal Democrats 35 (leading in 3)
Scottish National Party 40 (leading in 4)
Plaid Cymru 3 (leading in 0)
Green Party 1 (leading in 0)
Others 20 (leading in 0)



Coalition Builder
Con + Lib Dem = 321 (with DUP / UUP supply and confidence) = 330
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #473 on: April 19, 2015, 09:46:05 AM »

Full YouGov: Labour 36, Con 33, UKIP 13, LDem 9, Greens 5
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Lurker
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« Reply #474 on: April 19, 2015, 09:52:14 AM »

The long-expected Tory surge doesn't seem to happen.

Their only (unlikely) hope for gaining a majority is another verion of 1992's "Shy Tory factor".

I'm not sure why the bookies still have them as favorites to win the most seats - would have thought it to be 50/50 at best. Any explanations for this?
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