UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[jaichind]

The long-expected Tory surge doesn't seem to happen.

Their only (unlikely) hope for gaining a majority is another verion of 1992's "Shy Tory factor".

I'm not sure why the bookies still have them as favorites to win the most seats - would have thought it to be 50/50 at best. Any explanations for this?

I am surprised at this as well.  Perhaps what the bookies are counting on is LAB getting low single digit seats in Scotland but getting a fair share of the vote in Scotland and losing to SNP by narrow margins across the board. 

[rob in cal]

Another UKIP question.  Doesn't Cameron's promise to hold an EU in or out referendum during the next parliament's term amount to a giant move toward the very essence of what UKIP wants?  This being the case, does it make sense for UKIP to be running candidates in tory marginal seats where the main effect of its candidates might be to allow the victory of an anti-referendum labour candidate. UKIP could still run candidates everywhere else, and against every prominent pro-European Union MP, but stand aside in all marginal tory seats where there is a likely tory pro-referendum sitting MP or MP candidate.

[Harry Hayfield]

Another UKIP question.  Doesn't Cameron's promise to hold an EU in or out referendum during the next parliament's term amount to a giant move toward the very essence of what UKIP wants?  This being the case, does it make sense for UKIP to be running candidates in tory marginal seats where the main effect of its candidates might be to allow the victory of an anti-referendum labour candidate. UKIP could still run candidates everywhere else, and against every prominent pro-European Union MP, but stand aside in all marginal tory seats where there is a likely tory pro-referendum sitting MP or MP candidate.

The following are all references to the word "referendum" in the Conservative manifesto:

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[Dan the Roman]

Another UKIP question.  Doesn't Cameron's promise to hold an EU in or out referendum during the next parliament's term amount to a giant move toward the very essence of what UKIP wants?  This being the case, does it make sense for UKIP to be running candidates in tory marginal seats where the main effect of its candidates might be to allow the victory of an anti-referendum labour candidate. UKIP could still run candidates everywhere else, and against every prominent pro-European Union MP, but stand aside in all marginal tory seats where there is a likely tory pro-referendum sitting MP or MP candidate.

UKIP's purpose seems to be somewhat up in the air, not least because it actually means different things to different groups of potential UKIP voters. Some see it as a general protest against Cameron's seeming left-turn on policy on a host of social issues unrelated to the EU, others as a revolt against his heavy-handed management of the party and candidate selections, others not as a revolt against the Tories or even as a right-wing movement at all but as a protest against the take-over of the Labour party by a group of Oxbridge PPEist researchers who are contemptuous of blue collar concerns.

The problem with any tactical cooperation with the Tories is not only would it send right-leaning UKIP voters cascading to the Tories in more than just marginal seats, but it would also alienate anti-Tory Labour defectors.

Ultimately Nigel Farage is not canny enough to steer this ship and this crew, which I suspect will also be the judgement on Nicola Sturgeon and her crew of accidental MPs post-election.

[Simfan34]

Another UKIP question.  Doesn't Cameron's promise to hold an EU in or out referendum during the next parliament's term amount to a giant move toward the very essence of what UKIP wants?  This being the case, does it make sense for UKIP to be running candidates in tory marginal seats where the main effect of its candidates might be to allow the victory of an anti-referendum labour candidate. UKIP could still run candidates everywhere else, and against every prominent pro-European Union MP, but stand aside in all marginal tory seats where there is a likely tory pro-referendum sitting MP or MP candidate.

This might work, yes. The crucial problem is that UKIP is not clever enough to pull off such a thing.

[Harry Hayfield]

Another UKIP question.  Doesn't Cameron's promise to hold an EU in or out referendum during the next parliament's term amount to a giant move toward the very essence of what UKIP wants?  This being the case, does it make sense for UKIP to be running candidates in tory marginal seats where the main effect of its candidates might be to allow the victory of an anti-referendum labour candidate. UKIP could still run candidates everywhere else, and against every prominent pro-European Union MP, but stand aside in all marginal tory seats where there is a likely tory pro-referendum sitting MP or MP candidate.

This might work, yes. The crucial problem is that UKIP is not clever enough to pull off such a thing.

I beg to differ. I believe that the influence of a UKIP candidate caused the following seats to change hands (when they would not have done if UKIP did not field a candidate)

2001: Cheadle, Guildford, Taunton
2005: Devon West and Torridge, Taunton, Weston Super Mare
2010: Thurrock

[Vega]

How do you make those maps, I know using google earth? Apologies if it's been mentioned elsewhere....

And an SNP-Labour-Green coalition is looking likely. The latter if they gain a few more seats.

[Clyde1998]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-nigel-farage-is-on-course-to-lose-south-thanet-election-after-experts-predict-ukip-wipeout-10187516.html?cmpid=facebook-post

"Nigel Farage is on course to lose in South Thanet and Ukip faces wipeout, experts predict" followed by "Nigel Farage is on course to fail in his bid to become South Thanet’s first Ukip MP and the party is expected to lose half its seats in the upcoming general, experts have predicted."

Wipeout, to me at least, means losing all their seats. Anyway losing half their seats would still be UKIP's best ever General Election performance.

[Harry Hayfield]

How do you make those maps, I know using google earth? Apologies if it's been mentioned elsewhere....

And an SNP-Labour-Green coalition is looking likely. The latter if they gain a few more seats.

Yes, they are based on Google Earth but that is not who made them. They were made by the person who runs the Tally Room website (http://www.tallyroom.com.au/) and they have been a complete godsend since I discovered them in 2009. The colours have been sourced from the BBC's official website (and therefore will be colouring in the maps on election night) with once exception. Alliance was given a colour by the BBC in 2010 but this time around have been consigned to "Others" which is grey.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Farage doesn't get in, I suppose that means Carswell would become leader? Someone like him - more cerebral, kind of kooky - would definitely bring a different edge to UKIP.

[ChrisDR68]

General Election Forecast (Week Three)

Taking the advice of members from last week, I am now doing England and Wales and Scotland as separate forecasts (and combining them after the forecasts)

Conservatives 268 (leading in 15)
Labour 243 (leading in 18)
Liberal Democrats 35 (leading in 3)
Scottish National Party 40 (leading in 4)
Plaid Cymru 3 (leading in 0)
Green Party 1 (leading in 0)
Others 20 (leading in 0)



Coalition Builder
Con + Lib Dem = 321 (with DUP / UUP supply and confidence) = 330

The Lib Dems would bite your hand off to get those 35 seats!

[Simfan34]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-nigel-farage-is-on-course-to-lose-south-thanet-election-after-experts-predict-ukip-wipeout-10187516.html?cmpid=facebook-post

"Nigel Farage is on course to lose in South Thanet and Ukip faces wipeout, experts predict" followed by "Nigel Farage is on course to fail in his bid to become South Thanet’s first Ukip MP and the party is expected to lose half its seats in the upcoming general, experts have predicted."

Wipeout, to me at least, means losing all their seats. Anyway losing half their seats would still be UKIP's best ever General Election performance.

...doesn't UKIP have two seats?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

General Election Forecast (Week Three)

Taking the advice of members from last week, I am now doing England and Wales and Scotland as separate forecasts (and combining them after the forecasts)

Conservatives 268 (leading in 15)
Labour 243 (leading in 18)
Liberal Democrats 35 (leading in 3)
Scottish National Party 40 (leading in 4)
Plaid Cymru 3 (leading in 0)
Green Party 1 (leading in 0)
Others 20 (leading in 0)



Coalition Builder
Con + Lib Dem = 321 (with DUP / UUP supply and confidence) = 330

The Lib Dems would bite your hand off to get those 35 seats!

tbh, that seems quite unlikely that they'll reach a total that high in my opinion. I'd love to know where they are actually getting the last 5-10 or so. They'd be seriously lucky to be in a position to decide the majority.

[YL]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-nigel-farage-is-on-course-to-lose-south-thanet-election-after-experts-predict-ukip-wipeout-10187516.html?cmpid=facebook-post

"Nigel Farage is on course to lose in South Thanet and Ukip faces wipeout, experts predict" followed by "Nigel Farage is on course to fail in his bid to become South Thanet’s first Ukip MP and the party is expected to lose half its seats in the upcoming general, experts have predicted."

Wipeout, to me at least, means losing all their seats. Anyway losing half their seats would still be UKIP's best ever General Election performance.

...doesn't UKIP have two seats?

Yes, though as neither was a UKIP seat in 2010 they're both likely to be treated as Conservative seats for the purpose of tallying gains and losses.  The article is based on electionforecast.co.uk, which is currently giving UKIP a 71% chance of holding Clacton but no more than 2% of winning anywhere else.  So, as Clyde1998 says, the use of the term "wipeout" is odd.

Also, they say

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but the website is publicly accessible and has been saying something similar to this for ages.  Nothing has been "revealed" by the Sun on Sunday.

(And whether the forecast is any good, especially at predicting the fortunes of an insurgent party, is an open question.  I find its 0% for UKIP in South Thanet surprising, to say the least.)

[Diouf]

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but the website is publicly accessible and has been saying something similar to this for ages.  Nothing has been "revealed" by the Sun on Sunday.

(And whether the forecast is any good, especially at predicting the fortunes of an insurgent party, is an open question.  I find its 0% for UKIP in South Thanet surprising, to say the least.)

Electionforecast.co.uk's model believes very strongly that the results will move towards the 2010 result. They only predict UKIP to get 10,5%, while the Lib Dems are predicted to get 12,6%; their current polling average is 15% and 9% respectively. That's the reason why they only have the SNP at 43 seats as well, while most others have them on 50 or above.

[afleitch]

Guardian predictions by constituency.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/apr/20/election-2015-constituency-map

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bunch of polls today.

YouGov: Labour 35, Con 34, UKIP 13, LDem 8, Greens 5, Others 6

Populus: Labour 34, Con 32, UKIP 15, LDem 9, Greens 4, Others 6

ICM: Con 34, Labour 32, UKIP 11, LDem 10, Greens 5, Others 8

[Јas]

Useful blog post on the conventions around Prime Ministerial appointment, with particular regard to hung parliaments:
Ed can enter No. 10 without Nicola’s keys - Head of Legal, 19 April

[Clyde1998]

Usual comment

[Tetro Kornbluth]

These national polls are resolutely refusing to give us a coherent narrative.

[Zanas]

These national polls are resolutely refusing to give us a coherent narrative.

Well, that's not really true if you remember their margin of error. The tendency is quite clear, and both parties being effectively ex aequo in the general public is supposed to give results with 2 to 3 pt leads for either of them. Lab and Con are consistently at 33.5-34, Ukip at around 12-13, LibDem around 9, and the Greens have been decreasing a bit at now around 5.

[rob in cal]

It seems that if UKIP is around 10 or 11, Conservatives have a lead, if higher than that, Labour does.  I think the big question will be how strongly does UKIP vote hold up, and Green also.

[Oakvale]

Notorious womaniser Ed Miliband is at it again.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32372274

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Useful blog post on the conventions around Prime Ministerial appointment, with particular regard to hung parliaments:
Ed can enter No. 10 without Nicola’s keys - Head of Legal, 19 April

Excellent post and well worth reading.

[Clyde1998]

The SNP manifesto also doesn't rule out an Irn Bru tax, the Proclaimers being played every minute on the radio or a price increase for Freddo Frogs. #SNPBetrayal.

I'm starting to wonder if Jim Murphy's (and Scottish Labour's) twitter account is a parody...