UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[ObserverIE]

So is Charles Kennedy going to lose then? I don't see his seat on that list.

He's been behind on two successive Ashcroft polls (by 15% in the most recent).

(Cue Al's caveat on constituency polls.)

[bore]

I'm fairly certain Labour will win Edinburgh South.

(I'm mostly posting this in the hope I can smugly post it on election night)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This does not look very good for the purple peril at first sight, but surely those constituencies are too heterogeneous for this to be a sensible poll, even if the sampling is competent?

Well, yes. This is the classic problem with marginals polls. And this one (again) was done by ComRes. So it's probably entirely useless.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Prediction: Yougov's poll tomorrow will show a 3 point Labour lead, thus returning us back to the beginning.

Con 33 (-2), Labour 34, UKIP 14 (+1), LDem 7, Greens 5, Others 7 (+1)

Sensational findings!

[ObserverIE]

Prediction: Yougov's poll tomorrow will show a 3 point Labour lead, thus returning us back to the beginning.

Con 33 (-2), Labour 34, UKIP 14 (+1), LDem 7, Greens 5, Others 7 (+1)

Sensational findings!

The Sun manages to restrain itself in reporting them.

[Vega]

"Cameron heart not in it"

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/22/cameron-has-wanted-out-for-a-while-just-wants-to-go-out-on-a-high-tim-montgomerie/

Didn't he make a pledge to only serve out the next term and then quit? That struck me as odd; normally PMs don't do that and for a good reason.

I guess that makes more sense now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Um...

[backtored]

Um...

Come on, Shrewsbury. You are better than that.

[CatoMinor]

Um...

Is that a political party or a cult?

[Lief 🗽]

Um...

endorsed.

[Harry Hayfield]

Um...

As with all manifestoes published during this campaign, I have been interested in the financial aspects.

"The Children of the Atom also proposes a new tax system with a single 10 per cent annual tax on all electronic bank deposits and issued notes and coins. It also proposes a universal payment to everyone for life, from birth to death, of £27,000. Under the Seed scheme there will be free childcare provision, education and training for everyone until the age of 21"

According to the latest data I can find, M0 in April 2015 (the money supply of the UK) is running at £71½ billion, therefore a ten percent tax rate would produce £7.15 billion which during a year would generate £85.8 billion in tax revenues. Assuming a population in the UK of around 60 million, the bill for the universal payment would be £1.62 trillion a year.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Um...

Is that a political party or a cult?

With that name I'm thinking less 'cult' and more 'fifties B-movie that missed out by not being quite bad enough for Mystery Science Theater 3000'.

[Simfan34]

I imagine those that do care very strongly about this are rather unlikely to be Labour voters anyway.

That's what I thought.

[Hnv1]

Um...

What about monster raving loony? still running this time?

[andrew_c]

Monster Raving Loony is running in 16 constituencies.

[Hnv1]

Monster Raving Loony is running in 16 constituencies.

FF

[You kip if you want to...]

Monster Raving Loony is running in 16 constituencies.

FF

Who're they backing in a hung parliament?

[politicus]

Monster Raving Loony is running in 16 constituencies.

FF

Who're they backing in a hung parliament?

Farage for PM would be the logical option.

[afleitch]

In other news.

LUTFUR RAHMAN IS OFFICIALLY A CHEATING CORRUPT SELF AGGRANDISING (BEEP)

[Јas]

May or may not be of interest: www.constituencyexplorer.org.uk

Various demographic related comparative data broken down by constituency.

[Lief 🗽]

Panelbase:

LAB - 34% (-)
CON - 31% (-2)
UKIP - 17% (+1)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 4% (-)

[You kip if you want to...]

With the election being so close in the PV this time, the selective polling from people on social media has been taken to a new level.

Labourites love YouGov, Tories love ICM.

[Lief 🗽]

some insanity from the Express

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[You kip if you want to...]

some insanity from the Express

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If every party based their targets off 'the kind've conversations activists have on the doorstep', they'd all think UKIP'd sweep 400 seats.

[YL]

Monster Raving Loony is running in 16 constituencies.

They even have a splinter group, the Eccentric Party of Great Britain.  In Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the Raving Loonies are running Howling Laud Hope and the Eccentrics are running Lord Toby Jug.

The Church of the Militant Elvis appear not to be standing this time, but we do have the Al-Zebabist Nation of Ooog standing in South Thanet.