UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 160489 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #600 on: April 23, 2015, 12:38:02 PM »

Briefing a favourable newspaper to the effect that 'despite what everyone else is saying things are going great!' is usually a sign that things are, in fact, not going well at all. As I'm sure all of yo already know.

Mind you, the Express these days is always a bit like a newspaper from a parallel universe, so perhaps in said parallel universe things really do look like that...
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #601 on: April 23, 2015, 12:38:49 PM »

Survation released this poll:

Survation Opinion Poll (22nd - 23rd April)
CON - 33% (+2)
LAB - 29% (-6)
UKIP - 18% (+3)
LDEM - 10% (+1)

And then deleted it!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #602 on: April 23, 2015, 12:40:50 PM »

Are they re-rolling the dice to make sure that the numbers look more in keeping with the pack or something?
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afleitch
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« Reply #603 on: April 23, 2015, 12:42:04 PM »

Are they re-rolling the dice to make sure that the numbers look more in keeping with the pack or something?

Pollsters forget themselves. Even that poll is within the margin of error.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #604 on: April 23, 2015, 12:45:36 PM »

To put a new spin on an old cliche, the only poll that really matters for the pollsters is the one they do 2-3 days before May 7th anyway.

Find me a company that's never published an outlier.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #605 on: April 23, 2015, 12:58:05 PM »

A company that has never done that is one that is committing fraud on a daily basis. As has been seen in America.

Nevertheless, Survation is a very sketchy/incompetent (no idea which, don't care either) outfit who's findings should not be trusted and that all psephology nerds should fervently hope goes out of business after this election...
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #606 on: April 23, 2015, 01:13:53 PM »

A company that has never done that is one that is committing fraud on a daily basis. As has been seen in America.

Nevertheless, Survation is a very sketchy/incompetent (no idea which, don't care either) outfit who's findings should not be trusted and that all psephology nerds should fervently hope goes out of business after this election...

Yeah, they've been one of the sillier companies to emerge since last time. Still say you can't go wrong with Yougov/ICM/Ipsos.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #607 on: April 23, 2015, 01:17:14 PM »

Wonder where BPIX are these days.
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« Reply #608 on: April 23, 2015, 01:32:16 PM »

Might be worth having a betting market on which pollsters won't be around by the next election.

For the record, 2010's pollster casualties were Angus Reid (well, they stayed around for a couple more years - and actually began to show bigger Labour leads than the others - but they still count), BPIX (most notable for being the first to show the Lib Dems in the lead) and the absolutely hilarious One Poll (which, IIRC, showed Labour on 20% a few days before the election).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #609 on: April 23, 2015, 01:36:01 PM »

I'd completely forgotten about One Poll! Thanks for reminding me of their (former) existence.
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afleitch
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« Reply #610 on: April 23, 2015, 01:45:10 PM »

I remember Harris came back from the dead in 2010. Nothing from them yet this year.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #611 on: April 23, 2015, 04:57:42 PM »

ComRes has Tories up 36-32
YouGov has Labour up 35-33

Survation also has a South Thanet poll:

UKIP - 39%
CON - 30%
LAB - 26%
GRN - 2%
LDEM - 2%
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #612 on: April 23, 2015, 05:21:17 PM »


So that's what happened to the Natural Law Party.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #613 on: April 24, 2015, 02:57:37 AM »

Angus Reid was a mess. Made PB.com go from a joke to a farce. 'CAMERON STILL ON FOR 50+ MAJORITY'.
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« Reply #614 on: April 24, 2015, 05:56:20 AM »

Angus Reid was indeed little more than mastubatory material for the Tory hacks on PB.com.
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« Reply #615 on: April 24, 2015, 07:36:39 AM »

YouGov, London: Lab 44, Con 32, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

Also, 78% say they are 'absolutely certain' to vote, which is higher than the UK as a whole (around 70%) but below Scotland (over 80%).
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« Reply #616 on: April 24, 2015, 07:40:27 AM »

Populus: Lab 35, Con 32, UKIP 14, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5
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« Reply #617 on: April 24, 2015, 08:26:01 AM »

Can somebody explain why UKIP seems to be targeting the areas around the Thames Estuary? What is it about this area that's so (relatively) amenable to them? For some reason I'd previously been under the impression that their greatest strength was in the West Country.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #618 on: April 24, 2015, 09:18:32 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2015, 09:21:04 AM by ObserverIE »

Can somebody explain why UKIP seems to be targeting the areas around the Thames Estuary? What is it about this area that's so (relatively) amenable to them? For some reason I'd previously been under the impression that their greatest strength was in the West Country.

White flight, basically.

Their other area of focus is isolated and somewhat neglected rural agricultural areas in the east of England that have seen an influx of Eastern European migrant workers (Lincolnshire, Norfolk, parts of Cambridgeshire) and fishing ports (Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, also parts of the south-west).
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Diouf
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« Reply #619 on: April 24, 2015, 10:24:47 AM »

A great article on why Ed Miliband is the the favourite to become PM on the current polls.

http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-this-is-how-ed-miliband-gets-to-323-seats-and-becomes-prime-minister/
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« Reply #620 on: April 24, 2015, 10:50:16 AM »

So, anyone know what the deal is with Miliband's comments today? It seems to me that he is attempting to bait the Tories and the right-wing press.
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backtored
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« Reply #621 on: April 24, 2015, 11:45:14 AM »

YouGov, London: Lab 44, Con 32, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

Also, 78% say they are 'absolutely certain' to vote, which is higher than the UK as a whole (around 70%) but below Scotland (over 80%).

Why are the Greens not stronger in London? Is Labour poaching potential Green voters because of the tightness of the polling?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #622 on: April 24, 2015, 12:43:26 PM »

Large parts of London (i.e. the unfashionable bits) are not exactly Green friendly and it's quite possible - at least as regards citywide figures - that they cancel out the areas that are very Green friendly.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #623 on: April 24, 2015, 02:56:26 PM »

Just watching Election Tonight on BBC Parliament.

The presenter talked about how reliable the opinion polls have been over the last 5 general elections. The one common theme in all of them is that the Conservative vote has been underestimated in all of them (and in 1992 by a large amount).

Could be the shy Tory voter effect or a late swing over the last couple of days before polling day as undecided voters finally make up their mind.

So keeping this in mind expect the Tory vote to be a couple of points higher on election day than the final opinion polls end up showing.
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jaichind
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« Reply #624 on: April 24, 2015, 02:59:40 PM »

Just watching Election Tonight on BBC Parliament.

The presenter talked about how reliable the opinion polls have been over the last 5 general elections. The one common theme in all of them is that the Conservative vote has been underestimated in all of them (and in 1992 by a large amount).

Could be the shy Tory voter effect or a late swing over the last couple of days before polling day as undecided voters finally make up their mind.

So keeping this in mind expect the Tory vote to be a couple of points higher on election day than the final opinion polls end up showing.

Yes, but my impression was that in 2010 the polls generally got the CON vote share correct.  They overestimated LD and underestimated LAB.
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