UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

YouGov, London: Lab 44, Con 32, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

Also, 78% say they are 'absolutely certain' to vote, which is higher than the UK as a whole (around 70%) but below Scotland (over 80%).

Why are the Greens not stronger in London? Is Labour poaching potential Green voters because of the tightness of the polling?

I'm addition to what Al said, the Greens are targeting surprisingly little London seats. (For example, even on their very optimstic list of 12 target seats, the only London one I noticed was Holborn and St Pancras. Other London seats where Greens have had ephemeral success or favourable demographics (e.g areas of Lewisham, Haringey, Islington etc.) seem to have less invested in than non-London student filled areas - Oxford W, Cambridge, Norwich S, Sheffield C etc. Heck, the Greens are throwing more at such inexplicable locales as St Ives, Reading E and Solihull than at London)

[Phony Moderate]

Just watching Election Tonight on BBC Parliament.

The presenter talked about how reliable the opinion polls have been over the last 5 general elections. The one common theme in all of them is that the Conservative vote has been underestimated in all of them (and in 1992 by a large amount).

Could be the shy Tory voter effect or a late swing over the last couple of days before polling day as undecided voters finally make up their mind.

So keeping this in mind expect the Tory vote to be a couple of points higher on election day than the final opinion polls end up showing.

1992 was the last time the Tories were underestimated to a meaningful extent by the final polls, although Labour has been overestimated in all since and including then (with the exception of 2010, when they were underestimated).

[jaichind]

Just watching Election Tonight on BBC Parliament.

The presenter talked about how reliable the opinion polls have been over the last 5 general elections. The one common theme in all of them is that the Conservative vote has been underestimated in all of them (and in 1992 by a large amount).

Could be the shy Tory voter effect or a late swing over the last couple of days before polling day as undecided voters finally make up their mind.

So keeping this in mind expect the Tory vote to be a couple of points higher on election day than the final opinion polls end up showing.

1992 was the last time the Tories were underestimated to a meaningful extent by the final polls, although Labour has been overestimated in all since and including then (with the exception of 2010, when they were underestimated).

Well, if you look at it from the point of LAB-CON gap, in 2005 2001 1997 it was the clear that the LAB lead over CON were exaggerated, mostly because the LAB vote was overestimated even as the polls got the CON vote share mostly correct.  So perhaps we should speak about the tendency of polls since 1992 to overestimate the LAB-CON difference in favor of LAB, except in 2010 of course where it was the other way around.   

[Diouf]

Probably not a big surprise, but Nick Clegg now making it quite clear that he will side with the Conservatives again after the election.

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The legitimacy question regarding the biggest party would very likely only be relevant if the Conservatives are the biggest party. It is quite likely that Labour will form a government even if they are not the biggest party, while it's quite difficult to imagine how the Conservatives should be able to form a government if they are not the biggest party. So Nick Clegg will join the right-wing newspapers and the Conservatives in screaming "coup" if Labour forms a government as the second-largest party.
Of course, this is not that relevant if Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander both lose their seats, which is what the constituency polls have suggested so far.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

[Lief 🗽]

God I would love to see him lose his seat. His face on election night when they announce the results would be priceless.

[Ebsy]

The LibDems are going to dropkick Clegg after the election, right? I can't imagine why they would keep him around.

[You kip if you want to...]

The LibDems are going to dropkick Clegg after the election, right? I can't imagine why they would keep him around.

If he wants to go with any dignity, he'd resign as leader on the Friday morning, before Labour has the chance to call for his head.

[Phony Moderate]

Labour leads by 2 with latest YouGov.

[rob in cal]

  The irony about the legitimacy argument is that a better one will probably be available than "the second placed party shouldn't form the government."  Potentially the combination of all the non-leftist parties (Lib Dem, Conservatives, UKIP, DUP, UUP and minor odds and ends) might very well win a solid, clear majority of votes, by a large amount, and yet will have a minority of seats. Of course its not as if the Conservatives haven't had a chance to implement PR and they reject it (foolishly in my view) so there's a certain justice to them being burned by an unrepresentative electoral system as they support FPTP.
     Still, any claims of political unfairness in a Labour minority government backed by the SNP would resonate more with me ( if I were in the UK that is) if they referenced the solid majority of votes won by parties which  will likely have a clear minority of seats.
   

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Um...

So that's what happened to the Natural Law Party.

The SC NLP became the SC Greens.

[rob in cal]

Had the AV referendum passed, I wonder what this election would look like.  What percentage of second preference UKIP voters would go Tory, how many labour?  I think the Greens second choice would be heavily Labour, like 80-10, but UKIP I'm thinking 70-20 to the Conservatives, or is that too high?  I realize that many UKIP voters are former Labour voters, but it seems to be the Conservatives who are appealing to them on two primary issues to UKIP, an EU referendum and immigration.
   Also, the second choice of Lib Dems I would gather guess would be a pretty even split, as many of those who are still voting Lib Dem can't be too irritated with Lib Dem cooperation with the Conservatives. 
    Anyway, my guess is that with the help of UKIP second preferences going to the Conservatives, they would hold onto many marginal seats that they are probably going to lose due to FPTP.

[Diouf]

In relation to the legitimacy question, the Conservatives & co will have the problem that if Labour + SNP + left wing etc have a majority, then either Cameron will resign or be voted out via a vote of no confidence. So either he will himself have acknowledged defeat or parliament will have shown him it; that should make it somewhat harder for him to claim that he is the winner and the "legitimate" PM. Not that it will stop them from using that attack line, of course.

[YL]

More Ashcroft polls.

Bristol West: Labour 13 points ahead of Green, 18 ahead of incumbent Lib Dem
Bristol NW: Tories 9 points ahead of Labour
Rochester & Strood: Tories 3 points ahead of UKIP
Thurrock: UKIP 4 points ahead of Lab, 5 ahead of Con
High Peak: Con 2 ahead of Lab
Colne Valley: Con 2 ahead of Lab

All margin of error stuff except the two Bristol seats, where West is horrible for the Lib Dems (that's a 19% swing from LD to Lab) and NW disappointing for Labour.

Caveats as usual.

[Phony Moderate]

A bit better for Reckless than I was expecting.

[joevsimp]

YouGov, London: Lab 44, Con 32, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

Also, 78% say they are 'absolutely certain' to vote, which is higher than the UK as a whole (around 70%) but below Scotland (over 80%).

Why are the Greens not stronger in London? Is Labour poaching potential Green voters because of the tightness of the polling?

I'm addition to what Al said, the Greens are targeting surprisingly little London seats. (For example, even on their very optimstic list of 12 target seats, the only London one I noticed was Holborn and St Pancras. Other London seats where Greens have had ephemeral success or favourable demographics (e.g areas of Lewisham, Haringey, Islington etc. seem to have less invested in than non-London student filled areas - Oxford W, Cambridge, Norwich S, Sheffield C etc. Heck, the Greens are throwing more at such inexplicable locales as St Ives, Reading E and Solihull than at London)

its more trying to increase council seats at the same time as getting a good parliamentary vote, if the London Boroughs were up for election this year we'd be putting a lot more effort into six or so target seats in London
we have 3 cllrs in reading (hopefully to become 4) a fair amount of students and a collapsing LD vote, 4 cllrs in the Solihul constituency (plus 3 in the part of the borough that's in the Meriden seat)

[Phony Moderate]

The royal baby still isn't out yet, btw. If it is born in the last couple of days then that will undoubtably be something that the pollsters can point to if they are wrong, just as they pointed to England's World Cup defeat in 1970.

[You kip if you want to...]

More Ashcroft polls.

Bristol West: Labour 13 points ahead of Green, 18 ahead of incumbent Lib Dem
Bristol NW: Tories 9 points ahead of Labour
Rochester & Strood: Tories 3 points ahead of UKIP
Thurrock: UKIP 4 points ahead of Lab, 5 ahead of Con
High Peak: Con 2 ahead of Lab
Colne Valley: Con 2 ahead of Lab

All margin of error stuff except the two Bristol seats, where West is horrible for the Lib Dems (that's a 19% swing from LD to Lab) and NW disappointing for Labour.

Caveats as usual.

The Bristol poll will give heart to other Labour Student Ghetto candidates.

[Hnv1]

Probably not a big surprise, but Nick Clegg now making it quite clear that he will side with the Conservatives again after the election.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The legitimacy question regarding the biggest party would very likely only be relevant if the Conservatives are the biggest party. It is quite likely that Labour will form a government even if they are not the biggest party, while it's quite difficult to imagine how the Conservatives should be able to form a government if they are not the biggest party. So Nick Clegg will join the right-wing newspapers and the Conservatives in screaming "coup" if Labour forms a government as the second-largest party.
Of course, this is not that relevant if Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander both lose their seats, which is what the constituency polls have suggested so far.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

is that wise? I assume any LD voters of the left section will be poised to vote labour this time with most of the right section seeing no difference with the Tories. 

[afleitch]

'Dollgate' seems to be the most exciting thing today.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Bristol 'West' figures are striking, but then that can't be an easy seat to poll so... mind you, that goes for most of the set chosen this time; e.g. Thurrock, High Peak and Colne Valley are all made up of quite distinct areas with differing temperaments.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Bristol 'West' figures are striking, but then that can't be an easy seat to poll so... mind you, that goes for most of the set chosen this time; e.g. Thurrock, High Peak and Colne Valley are all made up of quite distinct areas with differing temperaments.

Labour's Bristol West candidate has a rather interesting name.

[YL]

I'm just imagining a conversation going something like this:

"Which football team did we decide he was going to support when we were trying to make him a man of the people?"

"Wasn't it that one who play in claret and blue?"

"West Ham?  Yeah, that's it."

[Hnv1]

I'm just imagining a conversation going something like this:

"Which football team did we decide he was going to support when we were trying to make him a man of the people?"

"Wasn't it that one who play in claret and blue?"

"West Ham?  Yeah, that's it."

claret and blue? hint of the future UKIP-Tory coalition?
I hope he won't appoint Tim Sherwood to cabinet to compensate bitter Villa supporters...

[Phony Moderate]

I do hope the BBC's election night coverage will focus on, you know, the results this time. Last time it was awful - mostly a combination of Andrew Neil on a boat (interviewing people even more obxious than he) and empty speculation about post-election deals. Oh yeah, and no end of talk about voting problems in Sheffield.

But I feel that it could actually be worse this time.

[afleitch]

I just want a results service. Sky News are good at giving them in a ticker like the football scores.