UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Cameron forgets which football team he supports.

[jaichind]

Is there a chance that Sinn Féin will take their seats if it make a difference in being about to bring down a shaky coalition minority government, especially a CON one?

[Vega]

Is there a chance that Sinn Féin will take their seats if it make a difference in being about to bring down a shaky coalition minority government, especially a CON one?

For some reason I doubt they'll break 100 years of "true patriotism" to do that.

[Oakvale]

Is there a chance that Sinn Féin will take their seats if it make a difference in being about to bring down a shaky coalition minority government, especially a CON one?

No.

[rob in cal]

If the latest Ashcroft polls are close to accurate its probably good news for Labour, especially the High Peak results. If they are that close to winning there what does that mean for the dozens of others much more marginal than High Peak?

[You kip if you want to...]

I do hope the BBC's election night coverage will focus on, you know, the results this time. Last time it was awful - mostly a combination of Andrew Neil on a boat (interviewing people even more obxious than he) and empty speculation about post-election deals. Oh yeah, and no end of talk about voting problems in Sheffield.

But I feel that it could actually be worse this time.

I do think the narrative of the night will be the SNP. Last time it was the LibDem failure to live up to the polls. As soon as the exit poll came out, I remember Dimbleby being like "well with that LD result, take that with a pinch of salt", and it turned out to be mostly correct and we got to see Clegg on the verge of tears at his count (imagine him this time, ay).

The election deal chatter may be less speculative this time, since we basically know who's gonna go with who, so it's a bit more about parties hitting their targets. If Labour's at about 265 or more, they're in, if the Tories are anywhere north of 280-285, they can just about squeeze back in. Clegg saying he won't touch the SNP with a barge poll basically implies he'll go with the Tories, surely (although, he's not a man averse to breaking his word, as we know).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The latest offering from Opium Opinium is: Con 34, Labour 33, UKIP 13, LDem 9, Greens 6, Others 5

[The Other Castro]

I have some British friends at my school who are convinced Cameron will win just by winning the most seats and joining with LD, but how exactly would it be possible for Tories to come close to winning a confidence vote with just LD?

[rob in cal]

One thing is that its possible that the only way the Conservatives don't lose too many seats is if they win some from the LD's, and of course the LD's will lose other seats to Labour and SNP, so the LD's faction is going to be that much smaller, and that much less helpful in keeping Cameron in.

[Lief 🗽]

sort of relevant Time Trumpet scene: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhTbOfXU5Gw&feature=youtu.be

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 34, Con 32, UKIP 14, Lib Dems 9, Greens 6

[jaichind]

So I guess the battle will be which "bloc" will end up bigger: "CON+LD" vs "LAB+SNP+PC+Green".  In that sense even in fairly pessimistic scenarios the center-left bloc will have the upper hand even as CON will more likely than not be the largest party.   Only thing CON hope for now between now and the election is the shy Tory effect and some UKIP voters going to CON tactically. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

LIb Dems have hilariously silly broadcast out which might as well be anthem for moderate heroism, involving an elaborate metaphor about The Highway Code.

[Diouf]

So I guess the battle will be which "bloc" will end up bigger: "CON+LD" vs "LAB+SNP+PC+Green".  In that sense even in fairly pessimistic scenarios the center-left bloc will have the upper hand even as CON will more likely than not be the largest party.   Only thing CON hope for now between now and the election is the shy Tory effect and some UKIP voters going to CON tactically. 

They are trying their best. I'm not really sure how well it will work; Farage has made sure to be very negative of Scotland as well with comments about shovelling money over Hadrian's wall and so on.

[Simfan34]

What's the important thing: May or the free* chicken from Marks and Spencer?

[Helsinkian]

So I guess the battle will be which "bloc" will end up bigger: "CON+LD" vs "LAB+SNP+PC+Green".  In that sense even in fairly pessimistic scenarios the center-left bloc will have the upper hand even as CON will more likely than not be the largest party.   Only thing CON hope for now between now and the election is the shy Tory effect and some UKIP voters going to CON tactically.  

Cameron can probably count on DUP and UUP support too?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Farage has made sure to be very negative of Scotland as well with comments about shovelling money over Hadrian's wall and so on.

Every inch of which is actually in England:



Why does Farage hate Newcastle so much?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cameron can probably count on DUP and UUP support too?

Well, no. The DUP are happy to back either Labour or the Tories in exchange for MOAR MONIES. They would also prefer to operate on a conditional basis rather than sign any longterm deal (for obvious reasons). The UUP are historically more pro-Conservative but are basically irrelevant these days (they currently have no seats and are by no means sure to bolster that fine tally).

[jaichind]

A substantial number of English voters would rather see the United Kingdom break up than accept a Scottish nationalist role in the Westminster government, according to a new poll.  The Survation survey for the Mail on Sunday found that more than two-fifths (44%) said that they would rather see Scotland given its independence than have a minority Labour government rule with help from the Scottish National Party, against 31% who said they would prefer the UK to stay together.  And more than one-third of English voters (34%) said that an election result which led to Ed Miliband running the UK with the backing of SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon would not be "legitimate" - just a fraction fewer than the 35% who said that it would be legitimate.
 

[Joe Republic]

One thing I have learned is never to try talking to real British people about the election (outside of this forum, o/c), as it turns out that I actually know more about it than they do.  One person today claimed that UKIP were poised to win, and any other party's victory meant that the UK was "guaranteed" to join the Eurozone within the next few years.  I thanked them for helping a stupid American understand these real truths.

[Tender Branson]

The Tories are going to win the election:

[Phony Moderate]

A team in red (Arsenal) won the most recent FA Cup, therefore Labour are going to win the election.

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/blogs/thepoliticswire/1557/Sweet-FA.aspx

[Phony Moderate]

Peter Kellner's latest prediction: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/26/tories-pay-price-inept-campaign/

Not sure I agree that there was a last minute shift in 1970, 1974, 1992 and 2010. It could well have simply been a matter of the polls being wrong in all four instances; even the exit polls in 1992 showed a deadlock.

[afleitch]

Panelbase - Scotland

SNP 48 (+3)
Lab 27 (-2)
Con 16 (+2)
Lib 4
UKIP 3 (-1)
Greens 2

Another pollster showing Labour falling back a little.

[ChrisDR68]

Peter Kellner's latest prediction: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/26/tories-pay-price-inept-campaign/

Not sure I agree that there was a last minute shift in 1970, 1974, 1992 and 2010. It could well have simply been a matter of the polls being wrong in all four instances; even the exit polls in 1992 showed a deadlock.

I well remember Peter Snow getting all excited about the BBC's exit poll in 1997 at the start of their election night broadcast.

It had Labour on 47%, the Tories on 29% and the LibDems on 17%.

So even their exit poll that year had Labour too high by 3.5% and the Tories too low by 2%.