UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 160471 times)
bore
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« Reply #675 on: April 26, 2015, 06:29:46 AM »

A substantial number of English voters would rather see the United Kingdom break up than accept a Scottish nationalist role in the Westminster government, according to a new poll.  The Survation survey for the Mail on Sunday found that more than two-fifths (44%) said that they would rather see Scotland given its independence than have a minority Labour government rule with help from the Scottish National Party, against 31% who said they would prefer the UK to stay together.  And more than one-third of English voters (34%) said that an election result which led to Ed Miliband running the UK with the backing of SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon would not be "legitimate" - just a fraction fewer than the 35% who said that it would be legitimate.
 

The number of people saying that result would be illegitimate is strikingly similar to the number of people voting tory, and, well, they would say that, wouldn't they?
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jaichind
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« Reply #676 on: April 26, 2015, 06:30:49 AM »

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2015/04/26/miliband-rules-out-confidence-and-supply-deal-with-snp

Miliband rules out confidence and supply deal with SNP
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #677 on: April 26, 2015, 06:47:40 AM »


All politicians rule out such deals until they need to.
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jaichind
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« Reply #678 on: April 26, 2015, 06:51:07 AM »

Any sense out there on what is going to take place in Bradford West ?  Betfair seems to have Galloway as the favorite but all the election projection sites seems to put Galloway in the single digits in terms of vote share with LAB winning by a landslide.  I cannot seem to find any polls on this.   
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #679 on: April 26, 2015, 07:02:13 AM »

Any sense out there on what is going to take place in Bradford West ?  Betfair seems to have Galloway as the favorite but all the election projection sites seems to put Galloway in the single digits in terms of vote share with LAB winning by a landslide.  I cannot seem to find any polls on this.   

Putting Galloway in single digits is a somewhat odd way of asking 'who knows?'. He's probably going to hold most of his core demographic (which is a good chunk of the Bradford West constituency, of course) which may or may not be enough to hold on.

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jaichind
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« Reply #680 on: April 26, 2015, 07:23:24 AM »

Any sense out there on what is going to take place in Bradford West ?  Betfair seems to have Galloway as the favorite but all the election projection sites seems to put Galloway in the single digits in terms of vote share with LAB winning by a landslide.  I cannot seem to find any polls on this.   

Putting Galloway in single digits is a somewhat odd way of asking 'who knows?'. He's probably going to hold most of his core demographic (which is a good chunk of the Bradford West constituency, of course) which may or may not be enough to hold on.



Yeah.  See  http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_a_b.html#BradfordWest

Which puts LAB chances of wining at 94% with OTH which I have to assume is RESPECT a 1.3% Huh!!!   

Of course

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_vote_by_seat.html projects Other at 3% vote share

And

http://www.ukelect.co.uk/20150425ForecastUK/MainPartyPercs.html  has Others at 5.42%

Kinds of make it hard for me to take these sites seriously.  I get it of course, since the way they derive these results are based on a statistical model based on polls and 2010 results.  My response to that is why cannot they also take by-election results into account as part of that model. 
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« Reply #681 on: April 26, 2015, 08:21:22 AM »

Galloway will be reelected.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #682 on: April 26, 2015, 09:26:34 AM »


And if he is, Labour will probably take it to court over 'false statements' made about that the arranged marriage.
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change08
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« Reply #683 on: April 26, 2015, 09:31:30 AM »


And if he is, Labour will probably take it to court over 'false statements' made about that the arranged marriage.

Don't feed the troll.
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« Reply #684 on: April 26, 2015, 09:33:36 AM »

He does have a contingency plan if he does lose ... He's going to become the new Lutfur Rahman.
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jaichind
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« Reply #685 on: April 26, 2015, 09:54:43 AM »


The very fact he would say something like that tells me he thinks he will lose.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #686 on: April 26, 2015, 11:06:51 AM »

Just read that Farage came out in favor of some type of tactical voting two weeks ago, basically saying that UKIP voters should vote for the Tories in areas of UKIP weakness, and as a way to defeat Labour, saying voters "should use their votes as wisely as they can".   Hmm, maybe UKIP should have used their Party as wisely as they could and not run candidates in Tory-Labour marginals.  This isn't rocket science Nigel.  Just as UKIP isn't running in Scotland, not running candidates in another 75 English districts would hardly have hurt UKIP too badly, IMHO. They still could have run candidates against all sitting Labour members and gone all out to defeat Conservatives in safe Tory seats. 
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« Reply #687 on: April 26, 2015, 11:15:37 AM »

Just read that Farage came out in favor of some type of tactical voting two weeks ago, basically saying that UKIP voters should vote for the Tories in areas of UKIP weakness, and as a way to defeat Labour, saying voters "should use their votes as wisely as they can".   Hmm, maybe UKIP should have used their Party as wisely as they could and not run candidates in Tory-Labour marginals.  This isn't rocket science Nigel.  Just as UKIP isn't running in Scotland, not running candidates in another 75 English districts would hardly have hurt UKIP too badly, IMHO. They still could have run candidates against all sitting Labour members and gone all out to defeat Conservatives in safe Tory seats. 

He (as he often does) backtracked on those comments soon after: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32287095
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #688 on: April 26, 2015, 12:36:26 PM »


They do, but the peculiar nature of the British Constitution on the issue of government formation means that such arrangements are not as essential here as in other countries.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #689 on: April 26, 2015, 12:37:38 PM »

Any sense out there on what is going to take place in Bradford West ? 

You would need to ask a Mirpuri Pakistani from Bradford (and ideally from Bradford West) to be sure of that.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #690 on: April 26, 2015, 04:36:24 PM »

There's really no need for Labour to make any deal with the SNP at all, either formal or informal. The SNP isn't insane. They'll vote against a Tory government and vote for or abstain on a Labour government. Obviously if they supported a Tory government they'd be destroyed, and they have no incentive to force another election, since they'll have already maxed out in Scotland; they'll have nowhere to go but down. I don't think Ed is bluffing.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #691 on: April 26, 2015, 06:15:42 PM »

In its manifesto the SNP calls for Proportional Representation.  I wonder if the huge SNP delegation about to come in will still be in favor of PR with many of the new MP's only elected because of FPTP.  Also, would they insist on some type of Labour move toward it as a price for their support? 
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« Reply #692 on: April 26, 2015, 06:34:12 PM »

In its manifesto the SNP calls for Proportional Representation.  I wonder if the huge SNP delegation about to come in will still be in favor of PR with many of the new MP's only elected because of FPTP.  Also, would they insist on some type of Labour move toward it as a price for their support? 

Well, since they've already said they definitely won't back the Tories, Labour don't have to give them anything.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #693 on: April 26, 2015, 07:02:58 PM »

In its manifesto the SNP calls for Proportional Representation.  I wonder if the huge SNP delegation about to come in will still be in favor of PR with many of the new MP's only elected because of FPTP.  Also, would they insist on some type of Labour move toward it as a price for their support? 

Ahhh... no they'd no longer do that I think.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #694 on: April 26, 2015, 08:08:58 PM »

I put down about $93 on Labour to win on PredictIt, got something just lower than 2:1 odds.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #695 on: April 27, 2015, 03:16:20 AM »
« Edited: April 27, 2015, 03:18:32 AM by BaconBacon96 »

Is there any chance the Tories and Lib Dems will try to continue their Coalition government or would they want to avoid such a scenario again?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #696 on: April 27, 2015, 03:51:08 AM »

Is there any chance the Tories and Lib Dems will try to continue their Coalition government or would they want to avoid such a scenario again?

The Lib Dems will likely hold seats such as Cambridge, Bermondsey and Old Southwark and Birmingham Yardley this time. Were they to enter another coalition with the Tories they would likely lose such seats at the following election.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #697 on: April 27, 2015, 03:59:05 AM »

Is there any chance the Tories and Lib Dems will try to continue their Coalition government or would they want to avoid such a scenario again?

The Lib Dems will likely hold seats such as Cambridge, Bermondsey and Old Southwark and Birmingham Yardley this time. Were they to enter another coalition with the Tories they would likely lose such seats at the following election.

Yeah that makes sense. That also makes the Conservatives forming government much, much less likely.
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afleitch
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« Reply #698 on: April 27, 2015, 05:46:48 AM »

TNS poll for Scotland. Fieldwork ended over a week ago however;


SNP 54% (+2)
Lab 22% (-2)
Con 13%,
Lib 6%
Green 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)
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Lurker
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« Reply #699 on: April 27, 2015, 05:49:51 AM »

TNS poll for Scotland. Fieldwork ended over a week ago however;


SNP 54% (+2)
Lab 22% (-2)
Con 13%,
Lib 6%
Green 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)

Yikes. If this is the actual results in the General Election, are there any Scottish seats that likely won't fall to the SNP?
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