UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[You kip if you want to...]

Surely, lets look at the Ascroft poll. No-one expects labour to get 30%, I mean that's a 1% improvement on 2010, it can't be that bad,

I don't like this argument. You can't base your opinion of an opinion poll on a 'feeling' that Labour has to be above a certain %.

I could easily say that the SNP surely can't be above 50%, but I'm not the one with a big polling firm at my disposal to ask.

[Phony Moderate]

The Green percentage is the most questionable thing about the Ashcroft poll.

[Iosif]

How's everyone voting then?

[Silent Hunter]

How's everyone voting then?

Labour, of course.

[afleitch]

SNP

[Oakvale]

Children Of The Atom

[Phony Moderate]

A hopeless vote for Labour in a Lib Dem-Con battle.

[Phony Moderate]

It does look as though turnout is going to be back to pre-2000s levels (i.e. 70% or more)...YouGov has 73% saying they are certain to vote with still ten days to go (and there tends to be a sizable bounce in that number in the final week of a campaign).

I still have a fear that we could be looking at 1992 2.0. A high turnout with the seemingly unpopular Tories far exceeding expectations due to voters' fear of Labour outweighing their hatred of the Tories.

[ingemann]

Ukip scores lucrative endorsement ... The Moors Murderer himself, Ian Brady

I personal loathe UKIP, but I really find that article bad taste; "Look look this horrible excuse for a human being support UKIP, isn't UKIP terrible".

[You kip if you want to...]

SNP

As a lapsed Tory, how do you think you'll feel if they put Ed into No10?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Ukip scores lucrative endorsement ... The Moors Murderer himself, Ian Brady

I personal loathe UKIP, but I really find that article bad taste; "Look look this horrible excuse for a human being support UKIP, isn't UKIP terrible".

The Metro is an Associated Newspapers rag, and Viscount Rothermere wants the Tories to win.

[bore]

I'll be the one vote for Scottish Labour.

[Double Carpet]

If anyone would like to play the free-to-enter election game for the UK, it's available at:

electiongame.co.uk/uk15/

Entries close Wednesday 6th May.

Many thanks,

DC

[Cassius]

Conservative I suppose.

[The Other Castro]

Children Of The Atom

[Clyde1998]

Survation/Daily Record
SNP - 51% (+4)
Lab - 26% (NC)
Con - 14% (-2)
Lib - 5% (+1)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The more I follow this election, the less clue I have of what will actually happen.

Except I still expect a lot of that Green vote to be squeezed in favour of Labour come election day - which some people aren't factoring in or considering.

[© tweed]

The Tories are fundamentally the Party of Property. Ultimately it is in their best interests to reflect whatever the values and views are of those who own it.

..such is why they've been doomed never to crack 36% since 1992, and will be so doomed again, yes?

as a total outsider ignorant of British politics the meteroic rises and falls of BNP, UKIP, etc would suggest the Tories have room to move their rhetoric to the right on immigration, Euroskepticism and so on and as such constitutes failure to capture an element of the 'far right' vote.  no majority in parliament in 5 consecutive elections seems like a colossal failure of long-term strategy.

facially (again, I'm no expert) similar to the problems the US Republicans have in expanding their base beyond whites, allowing the Dems to turn Latinos into a 70% (D) demographic, etc.  the US GOP only does well in Congressional elections because the game is rigged.

[© tweed]

The more I follow this election, the less clue I have of what will actually happen.

Except I still expect a lot of that Green vote to be squeezed in favour of Labour come election day - which some people aren't factoring in or considering.

odds seem to say some Labour minority, with tactical support from SNP, in the flimsiest government since the 70s.

[© tweed]

also, another question: if Labour "wins" in the sense that Miliband is the next PM, but only secures, say, 275 seats of their own, does Cameron stick around as leader of the Cons.?

[Lief 🗽]

It seems flimsy on paper, but just looking at the parties' official positions (I know) I feel like there should be a majority for most of what Labour wants to do, either based on SNP/Lib Dem support or Tory support. It depends on if parties will whip their MPs to vote against things purely to spite Labour, but say if Labour puts Trident up for a vote, it's not like the Tories are going to suddenly vote against it.

Reports are that if Cameron loses he wants to get out ASAP and then they'll bring in Boris Johnson.

[© tweed]

Reports are that if Cameron loses he wants to get out ASAP and then they'll bring in Boris Johnson.

ah, gotta get those private sector $$$ (or pounds pounds pounds- no Euros though)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

No, he will be eaten alive.  His heart doesn't seem in it for more, he'd probably be best to get a plum position in the House of Lords quickly before Miliband and Sturgeon set fire to it

I think May is a more likely leader than My Dear Mayor myself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov: Con 35, Labour 34, UKIP 12, LDem 9, Greens 5, Others 5

The change is Tories up two, UKIP down two, LibDems up one.

[© tweed]

are these just polls of England/Wales/NI?