UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They're polls of Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) but not Northern Ireland. The SNP make up the majority of the Others share.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Polling Northern Ireland is an exercise in futility.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

as a total outsider ignorant of British politics the meteroic rises and falls of BNP, UKIP, etc would suggest the Tories have room to move their rhetoric to the right on immigration, Euroskepticism and so on and as such constitutes failure to capture an element of the 'far right' vote.  no majority in parliament in 5 consecutive elections seems like a colossal failure of long-term strategy.

The trouble the Tories found (especially under Hague, who's rhetoric on such matters wasn't even a dog whistle) was that such messages are not particularly convincing when coming from the Conservative Party which meant that it didn't really work. And worse: the opprobrium that a party finds for playing at such politics is not reduced if they can't play at such politics successfully.

[Phony Moderate]

I am almost thinking of setting myself a challenge: not to look at any UK political news or polls until next Thursday (just about possible).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, he will be eaten alive.

It is true: Tory leaders do not survive electoral defeat.

[Barnes]

No, he will be eaten alive.

It is true: Tory leaders do not survive electoral defeat.

Just ask Heath. Or really any Tory leader who loses an election...

[You kip if you want to...]

The Tories have been simmering over them not winning in 2010, never mind if he loses them a second 'sure thing' election.

Also not feeling that Boris will win the leadership. The early favourite hardly ever wins.

[Iosif]

I don't know how well Boris plays outside of the south.

[Phony Moderate]

The 1992/1997 share for the Lib Dems that some people were predicting doesn't look overly likely now, does it?

[afleitch]

The 1992/1997 share for the Lib Dems that some people were predicting doesn't look overly likely now, does it?

Vote share, no. But actual number of seats held could still outstrip what they won in 1992.

[ChrisDR68]

No, he will be eaten alive.  His heart doesn't seem in it for more, he'd probably be best to get a plum position in the House of Lords quickly before Miliband and Sturgeon set fire to it

I think May is a more likely leader than My Dear Mayor myself.

Teresa May looks worried sick all the time. If Cameron goes if he's no longer PM after this election I'd like Boris as Tory leader. For entertainment value if for nothing else after watching him joust with Ed Miliband on the Andrew Marr Show on Sunday!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My my, but David Cameron and Nick Clegg have both spent an awful lot of the campaign down in the West Country haven't they?

[ObserverIE]

The 1992/1997 share for the Lib Dems that some people were predicting doesn't look overly likely now, does it?

Vote share, no. But actual number of seats held could still outstrip what they won in 1992.

Possibly. But very few seats look to be rock-solid or even comfortable. At a guess:

Orkney and Shetland
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Norfolk North
Colchester
Carshalton and Wallington
Twickenham
Lewes
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Thornbury and Yate
Yeovil
Bath

But a lot of those above haven't been polled. After all, Bristol West seemed to be a reasonable prospect for a hold right up to the point where Ashcroft showed them in a distant third behind Labour and the Greens. Charlie Kennedy looked to be a rusted-on hold (not a euphemism) until the polls showed him behind the SNP.

[ObserverIE]

My my, but David Cameron and Nick Clegg have both spent an awful lot of the campaign down in the West Country haven't they?

I've seen the phrase "gnawing through the lifebelt" used for the Tories' advance on LibDemistan.

As for Clegg, if you were on the verge of returning your party to 1950s obscurity, wouldn't you be trying to save what you could?

[Phony Moderate]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eastleigh
Yeovil

Scratch these off your list; Clegg was out campaigning in Eastleigh the other day and Cameron was in Yeovil last week. Of course a Conservative gain in Yeovil would represent a swing to the left.

[ObserverIE]

Cameron was in Yeovil last week. Of course a Conservative gain in Yeovil would represent a swing to the left.

Not so much gnawing through the lifebelt as taking a chainsaw to it.

[Lief 🗽]

Farage: Scottish people are the real racists (??!)

[Harry Hayfield]

Conservatives 274 (leading in 19)
Labour 246 (leading in 23)
Scottish National Party 35 (leading in 6)
Liberal Democrats 18 (leading in 5)
Democratic Unionists 9 (leading in 0)
Sinn Fein 5 (leading in 0)
Plaid Cymru 3 (leading in 0)
SDLP 3 (leading in 0)
Alliance 0 (leading in 0)
Green 1 (leading in 0)
Independent 1 (leading in 0)
National Health Action 1 (leading in 0)
Speaker 1 (leading in 0)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

GDP figures are out and they show growth shrinking down to 0.3% (down from 0.6%). This is the slowest quarterly growth for two years.

It's debatable how much influence economic statistics actually have on elections, but this is not helpful news for the government parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

TNS latest poll says: Con 34, Labour 33, UKIP 15, LDem 7, Greens 5, Others 5

Of course TNS are kind of sh!t, but such functional ties are quite common this election I understand.

[Хahar 🤔]

If I'm not mistaken, this would be the first time a different party was one of the three largest parties in the Commons since the election of 1918.

[Lief 🗽]

It looks like the Tories are moving ahead, however slightly.

[Zanas]

If I'm not mistaken, this would be the first time a different party was one of the three largest parties in the Commons since the election of 1918.

And by votes in a general election ?

[Peter]

If I'm not mistaken, this would be the first time a different party was one of the three largest parties in the Commons since the election of 1918.

Depends on how you deal with the SDP breakaway from Labour. Definitively the SDP were bigger than the Liberals in the early 80s (29 MPs at its peak), and whilst it is a Lib Dem predecessor, that was far from clear in its early days.

If you just restrict it to general election results, you may run into problems in 1931 when the Liberal National Party finished 3rd ahead of the Liberal Party (from whom they had broken away). The LNP eventually became a part of the Conservatives, though it took the better part of 30 years for the merger to go through.