UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 35, Con 34, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 9, Greens 4

[ObserverIE]

Changes: Lab +1, Con -1, Green -1, Others +1

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It looks like the Tories are moving ahead, however slightly.

Nah, still no real sign of movement either way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you just restrict it to general election results, you may run into problems in 1931 when the Liberal National Party finished 3rd ahead of the Liberal Party (from whom they had broken away). The LNP eventually became a part of the Conservatives, though it took the better part of 30 years for the merger to go through.

There were more National Liberals than straight Liberals in 1935 as well.

And they were still demi-independent until the 1960s even if in practice they were a cross between a flag of convenience and a Conservative faction by then. As late as the 1959 election they had twenty MPs to the Liberals six.

[Beezer]

TNS poll for Scotland. Fieldwork ended over a week ago however;


SNP 54% (+2)
Lab 22% (-2)
Con 13%,
Lib 6%
Green 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)

Ipsos Mori confirms it...

SNP 54% (+2)
Lab 20% (-4)
Con 17% (+5)
LibDem 5% (+1)
Green 2% (-2)
UKIP 1%

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/318815-stvipsos-mori-poll-snp-set-to-win-all-scots-seats-at-general-election/

[MaxQue]

Why a polling company is called "Ourselves die" (or something like that, I don't talk Latin) in Latn?

[afleitch]

Certainly, every polling company is now showing a further move towards the SNP since early April. I am still, to put it mildly, shocked at the level of support the polls are showing for the SNP and the fact that Labour are registering sub 30.

[Torie]

Red racing horses has a seat by seat analysis of the election prospects for all the constituencies outside of England, including a bunch of pretty maps. You guys might enjoy evaluating how much you agree with its analysis. While the site is partisan, I find the hosts' political handicapping pretty "fair and balanced."

[afleitch]

There's a possible void election in Hull East. There's photographic evidence apparently of the postal vote ballot papers cutting off the Labour and Green candidates names.

[YL]

There's a possible void election in Hull East. There's photographic evidence apparently of the postal vote ballot papers cutting off the Labour and Green candidates names.

This is the picture tweeted by BBC Radio Humberside:

[YL]

Red racing horses has a seat by seat analysis of the election prospects for all the constituencies outside of England, including a bunch of pretty maps. You guys might enjoy evaluating how much you agree with its analysis. While the site is partisan, I find the hosts' political handicapping pretty "fair and balanced."

As far as the predictions go, I didn't notice anything obviously ridiculous, but not anything obviously original either.

However:

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Firstly, LOL at "the actual city of Strangford".  Secondly, the village of Strangford has always been in South Down; the constituency name refers to Strangford Lough, most of the shoreline of which (except for the bit around Strangford village) is in the constituency.

[jaichind]

One thing that is interesting that took place last couple of weeks is the surge of GBP by over 5%.  This is partly about the decline of USD, but a key part of it is the believe among currency traders that a rate rise is coming sooner than later.  I noticed looking at intraday GBP charts that when a poll that shows a significant lead comes out GBP does spike up.  The main takeaway for me is

1) FX traders tend to feel that CON victory is more likely than what the polls or CW believe which is good news for CON
2) Even if LAB wins or forms the government that would not really alter the economic landscape that much and a rate rise will come anyway which does knock a hole in the CON narrative that this election is about preventing a disastrous Left-Far Left LAB-SNP government.

[Lurker]

Fwiw, May2015 now estimates that the SNP will win 56 of the 59 Scottish seats.

[bore]

Yeah, those predictions seem overly credulous with regard to constituency polling (which makes sense in America where you have multiple tried and tested polls by multiple agencies but less so here)  but otherwise just Conventional Wisdom. I mean it's definitely not a bad guess, but you get the feeling it's just people plugging in a unifrom swing plus some ashcroft polls to a formula.

The one analysis that does seem off is the Orkney and Shetland one:

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note that Ipsos-MORI have shown particularly 'extreme' results for Scotland since late last year and though this is the most 'extreme' so far, it's well within the pattern (leads of 29, 28 and now 34). Of course they might even be right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1) FX traders tend to feel that CON victory is more likely than what the polls or CW believe which is good news for CON

Why? These people have no better information than the rest of us.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a possible void election in Hull East. There's photographic evidence apparently of the postal vote ballot papers cutting off the Labour and Green candidates names.

Apparently it 'only' affected 484 ballots so that's alright or something??!?!

[jaichind]

1) FX traders tend to feel that CON victory is more likely than what the polls or CW believe which is good news for CON

Why? These people have no better information than the rest of us.

They have more $$$ on the line which means they will take the time to figure out what would take place.  You can argue that political betting markets play the same role but the liquidity of FX markets are a lot greater so the mounts of $$$ involved are lot greater which in turn means the level of research that much higher.  Of course this still could mean they are way wrong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As a useful bit of context, the difference between the Labour share of the vote in Scotland and the whole of the UK since 1945:

1945: -0.1
1950: +0.1
1951: -0.9
1955: +0.3
1959: +2.8
1964: +4.8
1966: +1.7
1970: +1.4
1974: -0.5
1974: -3.0
1979: +4.6
1983: +7.5
1987: +11.6
1992: +4.5
1997: +2.4
2001: +3.2
2005: +4.2
2010: +13.0

[Simfan34]

2015: -14.2?

[YL]

More Ashcrofts.  All have been polled before, and all changes in leads are tiny (as are the leads themselves).  I knew one of these was coming.

South Swindon: Con 1 ahead of Lab
South Thanet: Con 2 ahead of UKIP, 8 ahead of Lab
Sheffield Hallam: Lab 1 ahead of Lib Dem

[ChrisDR68]

Certainly, every polling company is now showing a further move towards the SNP since early April. I am still, to put it mildly, shocked at the level of support the polls are showing for the SNP and the fact that Labour are registering sub 30.

I doubt these sorts of numbers will happen on election day.

One opinion poll stuck in my mind while I was watching Liverpool FC's treble winning tour of the city in 2001. It had Labour on 54% and the Conservatives on 26%.

That parade took place on May 20th and the general election happened on June 7th - a gap of 18 days.

In the end Labour finished 13% less and the Tories 6% more than that poll. Doesn't prove anything obviously but it taught me to be very sceptical of very large leads for a particular party over another.

[YL]

My phone's caller ID and a quick Google reveal that Survation tried to call me three times today.

[Phony Moderate]

I've been polled by YouGov a couple of times during the campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My phone's caller ID and a quick Google reveal that Survation tried to call me three times today.

My heart goes out to the poor harassed citizenry of Sheffield Hallam, your good self very much included.