UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Then it would depend on which constituencies, I guess?

[Phony Moderate]

Panelbase: Lab 34, Con 32, UKIP 17, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4

[ChrisDR68]

Interesting graphic on the Electoral Calculus website about how voting intentions have shifted since the 2010 general election.

Each figure represents 1% of the electorate.

One thing it doesn't seem to show is any migration from the Conservatives to Labour!

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Interesting graphic on the Electoral Calculus website about how voting intentions have shifted since the 2010 general election.

Each figure represents 1% of the electorate.

One thing it doesn't seem to show is any migration from the Conservatives to Labour!

What could have possibly happened to make anyone move their ideology so far to vote Conservative to Green?

[Clyde1998]

You can interpret that quote how ever you like...

[afleitch]

Slightly different language than his previous denials to such an extent it can be taken (probably incorrectly) that he'd rather hand the Tories the spoils of the election before a vote has been cast. Not particularly helpful language at this stage in the game.

[You kip if you want to...]

Maybe he's playing the long game. Let Cameron cling on until the Queen's Speech, then dare the SNP to back Cameron.

[Phony Moderate]

Cameron wins 44-38 according to ICM. Clegg on 19.

[afleitch]

Maybe he's playing the long game. Let Cameron cling on until the Queen's Speech, then dare the SNP to back Cameron.

There isn't a 'long game' if he refuses any confidence and supply with the SNP and there's no other way he can form a government. He can allow Cameron to hang on, but the SNP will still vote down a Tory Queen's Speech. If he tries to form a super-minority government hoping it falls, the SNP will stick to him like a limpet and vote through a Labour platform whether he likes it or not. The SNP are not going to do anything but what the Scottish electorate expect them to do and that's back a Labour government .

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 35, Con 34, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5

[rob in cal]

  I looked at the internals of some of the Ashcroft constituency polls for what type of government Green and UKIP votes favor, either Conservatives alone, Labour alone, Cons with LD's, and Lab with LD.  Of course the sample sizes are small, but in the four cases I looked at, UKIP voters favored some type of Conservative government over some type of Labour government around 52-62% for Tories to 23-32 for Labour, so pretty close to two to one.  Greens on the other hand were the opposite, but even more pro Labour, about 60-70% for Labour and 12-20% for Tories.  Perhaps an indicator of where these voters would go if they abandon their first choice.

[Clyde1998]

Interesting graphic on the Electoral Calculus website about how voting intentions have shifted since the 2010 general election.

Each figure represents 1% of the electorate.

One thing it doesn't seem to show is any migration from the Conservatives to Labour!

What could have possibly happened to make anyone move their ideology so far to vote Conservative to Green?

They don't know what either of the parties stand for?

[Phony Moderate]

The Greens picked up a lot of right-leaning voters (including one of my great aunts) during their original surge in the late 1980s. But they were essentially a single issue party then.

[Zanas]

Poll.

Scottish Labour wins the Worst Campaign Award of :

a) the year.
b) the decade.
c) the century.
d) post-WW2 elections.
e) all time.


Discuss with maps.

[Diouf]

Slightly different language than his previous denials to such an extent it can be taken (probably incorrectly) that he'd rather hand the Tories the spoils of the election before a vote has been cast. Not particularly helpful language at this stage in the game.

Good analysis. He managed to say it in a way so that the SNP can argue that he would let in a Conservative government, while the English voters could hear it as him even refusing being PM on the votes of the SNP, which of course he will not and which they won't believe in. Surely, he could have been far more convincing and said that he will put his manifesto forward, and the other parties could vote on it as they pleased. If SNP keeps their word, there will be a majority for raising the minimum wage, the mansion tax etc, and if the Tories keep their word, there will be a majority for renewing trident and so on.

[Thomas D]

You can interpret that quote how ever you like...

Then afterwards, Ed calls Nicola and asks: "Do you think they bought it?"

"Yeah, you were awesome. You almost convinced me."

Then they laugh and laugh and laugh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The position of the Labour Party is always that the Labour Party does not like or trust other parties (understanding full well that other parties do not like the Labour Party) and would rather rule a) alone and b) unfettered or at least as unfettered as it can be. Labour would (of course!) rather ran a minority government without a formal arrangement with a small party than with one. If this comes as a genuine surprise to you, then you have not been paying attention.

I'll also point out (again) that not all hung parliaments are alike (which means that intensive speculation before we have any results is pointless), and that the Convention governing government formation is not what a lot of people in the media seem to assume it is.

[Lief 🗽]

People seem to think he's obviously lying or something, but if the polls are right and the seats are distributed as they currently look to be, he doesn't need to make any deal with the SNP (unless they are lying about their opposition to Tory rule and/or their left-wing credentials). He puts forward his budget, the SNP either votes for it because it's broadly similar to their manifesto or they vote against it and get blamed for bringing down a Labour government and we have another election where they have nowhere to go but down.

It's a bit ridiculous that these tiny fringe parties who get 5% of the national popular vote act like they are entitled to have huge influence and a ton of concessions just to vote for policies they ostensibly support.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

To me, Miliband constantly denying he will make any deal on paper or not with the SNP makes sense. If he says he'll deal with the SNP, then Scots can flock to the SNP safe in the knowledge that doing so won't be responsible for putting a Tory in 10 Downing. However, by denying he will (despite the fact that, when push comes to shove, he probably will), it plants a seed of doubt into the minds of some potential SNP voters and might make them think twice before ditching Labour.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/campden-hill-conservatives-stroke-poster-5565121

One local Tory party does the full Jean Chretien.

[jaichind]

You can interpret that quote how ever you like...

Then afterwards, Ed calls Nicola and asks: "Do you think they bought it?"

"Yeah, you were awesome. You almost convinced me."

Then they laugh and laugh and laugh.

I tend to think that if there is going to be a SNP landslide in Scotland then a very different behind-the-scenes deal might be in the works, that of a CON-SNP government.  If SNP wins 55-59 seats with a majority of the vote share in Scotland and the CON beats LAB by a solid 15+ seats then a CON-SNP deal might emerge.  The basis of such an alliance would be both a Scotland Independence referendum in Scotland as well as a EU referendum in UK.  CON cannot get LD to agree to a EU referendum and SNP cannot get LAB to agreed to a Scotland Independence referendum.  SNP would in fact benefit from holding both referendums on the same say and would urge Scotland to vote for independence since there was a risk that UK would leave EU.  CON would benefit from a rump UK where it could dominate England.   

[Ebsy]

What?

[Phony Moderate]

What about a Declaration of Independence if (as several recent polls suggest) the SNP top 50%?

[The Other Castro]

So, let's say Tories get the most seats but are unable to form a government because the anti-Tory bloc is too large. Then, the question is whether SNP calls Milibland's bluff or gives him confidence without any deals. But, what happens if SNP doesn't get any deals from Labour and decides to vote down Labour as well? Does Sturgeon get a chance to form a gov then? Does Clegg?

[136or142]

So, let's say Tories get the most seats but are unable to form a government because the anti-Tory bloc is too large. Then, the question is whether SNP calls Milibland's bluff or gives him confidence without any deals. But, what happens if SNP doesn't get any deals from Labour and decides to vote down Labour as well? Does Sturgeon get a chance to form a gov then? Does Clegg?

Grand coalition?