UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[MaxQue]

If, and I realize that this is a highly improbable if, no party proves capable of forming a government, is there anyone Elizabeth could call on to form an apolitical caretaker government pending a new election? I not interested at the moment on whether she would do that, but only if there is anyone she could call on, such as perhaps a crossbench Lord.

No. Cameron would again carry on as a careholder. He is in power until replaced.

But if Cameron couldn't get even the British equivalent of a continuing budget resolution to pass what then?  A neutral figure might be able to accomplish what Cameron couldn't.  I already stipulated that I considered the scenario highly improbable. Hence my question was is there anyone the Queen could call on in the unlikely event it proved necessary.

UK doesn't need a contining budget resolution. Cameron passed the 2015 budget in March and the current government will carry on on these lines until they are replaced. Westminster system don't need to continue budget or anything. If House votes no changes, the previously voted budget continues on and on and present government continue as a careholder.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Who will benefit from the baby bump?

Duchess of Cambridge in early stages of labour - BBC

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Who will benefit from the baby bump?

Duchess of Cambridge in early stages of labour - BBC

Hopefully nobody because the royal family isn't supposed to be an object of politics in this way, but I'm probably being too optimistic.

[Phony Moderate]

As I said previously, it will be something that the pollsters can point at if they are wrong, just as they did with England's World Cup exit in 1970 and the Sheffield Rally in 1992.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As I said previously, it will be something that the pollsters can point at if they are wrong, just as they did with England's World Cup exit in 1970 and the Sheffield Rally in 1992.

I think unless there's some kind of unexpected blowout in either direction, only Mori seems to be consistent in their sizable Con leads. What is interesting, looking at 2010, the late polling, generally got the Lab and Con votes in the ball-park with both of them slightly underestimated.

Average of the last 15 polls of the 2010 cycle
CON: 35% - result: 36.9%
LAB: 28% - result : 29.7%
LD: 27% - result: 23.6%
OTH: 9% - result: 9.8%

The average of the last polls - 4-5 May 2010
CON: 36% - result: 36.9%
LAB: 28% - result: 29.7%
LD: 27% - result: 23.6%
OTH: 9% - result 9.8%

Now, what is that suggesting to me? Again, my knowledge of a lot of UK electoral idiosyncrasies is wonky... but...

With both parties sitting pretty consistently in most polls with numbers around 33-35% for each... my expectation is that we'll probably see results somewhere in that ballpark. But... it does make me think that the other parties will be considerable variations in the performance on the day versus the polling. If anything, my gut feel is that the LD are being underestimated with UKIP and to a lesser extent the SNP being over-estimated. Of course, multi-party elections with FPTP across over 600 constituencies means we're all probably wasting our time

[Gary J]

Discussion of government formation has to take account that the traditional conventions have been modified by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.

The UK civil service has compiled a document, called The Cabinet Manual, to summarise the law and conventions in various areas including government formation. This part of the manual starts at page 14.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Royal baby: Duchess of Cambridge gives birth to daughter

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-32562117

...

Which party will benefit from this ? The Tories because stuff like this helps the incumbent party ?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Sources report the infant's first words were "I am terrible news for Ed Miliband".

[Phony Moderate]

Worth a read: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9392

[rob in cal]

  The one difference between this and previous elections and previous polls is to my mind the rise of UKIP.  There hasn't been a large party on the right of the spectrum outside of the Tories ever, unless I'm forgetting something.  So, if in fact the polls are overestimating their strength, this will likely be a factor in favor of the conservatives I would think.  This would be counterbalanced somewhat if the Greens also fare less well.

[solarstorm]

538com made a Dave-like prediction map:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which party will benefit from this ? The Tories because stuff like this helps the incumbent party ?

No one will benefit because (in actual fact) stuff like that never benefits anyone. If the polls are wrong to the advantage of the government then (as has already been suggested) polling firms will quite probably use it as an excuse, but that is not the same thing at all.

[Tender Branson]

Which party will benefit from this ? The Tories because stuff like this helps the incumbent party ?

No one will benefit because (in actual fact) stuff like that never benefits anyone. If the polls are wrong to the advantage of the government then (as has already been suggested) polling firms will quite probably use it as an excuse, but that is not the same thing at all.

Maybe, but there's no precedent like this. Or has there even been a royal baby born in the final week of a GE campaign ?

And if there is a bounce in favour of the Tories on election day it will be hard to know if it's because of bad polls or because of a late feel-good swing from voters towards the Tories.

Of course, the polls might be wrong but they don't necessarily have to be (the baby-bounce could be real).

Impossible to know, unless this specific question is asked in an exit poll ... (LOL)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For reasons know only to themselves no doubt, Plaid have commissioned a YouGov poll of Wales. It shows the same pattern as all other YouGov polls of Wales: Labour 39, Con 26, Plaid 13, UKIP 12, LDem 6, Greens 3, Others 2.

A supplementary question with rather tortuous wording asking how people would vote in their specific constituencies produced a slightly higher Plaid score (15) which they are directly comparing with standard voting questions from older polls and are proudly trumpeting around the internets as proof of a surge or something, because Plaid are like that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course, the polls might be wrong but they don't necessarily have to be (the baby-bounce could be real).

And for all I know you and the rest of the forum are elephants who have evolved the ability to type on keyboards. I've never met any of you personally, so who's to say that isn't true?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Discussion of government formation has to take account that the traditional conventions have been modified by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.

Indeed; it's not as easy to get a quick dissolution now. But the fundamentals hasn't changed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there anything in the British law that would prevent something like this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional_crisis

Yes; the supremacy of the Commons over the Lords. The Australian Senate is a vastly more powerful institution than the House of Lords.

[Phony Moderate]

Coventry City won the FA Cup during the 1987 campaign. It was possibly the proudest day in the city's modern history. To add to that, Neil Kinnock had stated that he was rooting for Tottenham Hotspur. There was no swing to the Tories in any of the Coventry seats; in fact the swing to Labour in all of them was greater than the national swing.

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/sionsimon/status/594537312115159040/photo/1

Sex segregated rally in Hodge Hill

[Phony Moderate]

Very grim news for Labour if anything close to accurate, but salt required etc: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/

[afleitch]

Very grim news for Labour if anything close to accurate, but salt required etc: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/

An ocean of salt required. There is no way to 'count' postal votes in that fashion.

[Lief 🗽]

that reply tho

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour Unhinged are are a bunch of bitter lying whingers. You would be better off investing in a Greek bank than believing anything they publish.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Opium Opinium produces the usual: Con 35, Labour 34, UKIP 13, LDem 8, Greens 5, Others 5

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And another poll from Com(edy)Res(ults)... Labour 33, Con 33, UKIP 13, LDem 8, Greens 7, Others 6