UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[afleitch]

Safety in numbers. If they call this one wrong, at least they are all calling it wrong together

[Meeker]

Are Carswell and Farage the only UKIP candidates with a semi-serious chance of winning?

[Dr. Cynic]

Are Carswell and Farage the only UKIP candidates with a semi-serious chance of winning?

What about Mark Reckless?

[afleitch]

Survation have released their final poll.

CON 31 (-2)
LAB 34
LIB 8 (-1)
UKIP 17 (+1)
GRN 4 (+1)

[Insula Dei]

Didn't the last Survation poll have Labour on 29?

[afleitch]

Didn't the last Survation poll have Labour on 29?

Survation have had two polls released in the past day one for the Mirror and one for the Mail. This is the Mail one. The Mirror one had a one point lead.

YouGov have a 1 point Tory lead today.

[Hifly]

Are Carswell and Farage the only UKIP candidates with a semi-serious chance of winning?

The candidate in Thurrock.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov Scotland:
SNP - 49% (N/C)
Lab - 26% (+1)
Con - 15% (-2)
Lib - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 2% (-1)
Grn - 1% (N/C)

All movements are within the margin of error.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Are Carswell and Farage the only UKIP candidates with a semi-serious chance of winning?

The candidate in Thurrock.

Also in Castle Point. Although that looks slightly less likely.

[Lief 🗽]

What Time Does Each Constituency Declare?

[Clyde1998]

What Time Does Each Constituency Declare?

Some were quite a bit off last time (some by well over an hour) - so I've started getting a list of when they declared in 2010.

I've found Scotland's 2010 declaration times so far:
00:45 - East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow, Lanark & Hamilton East, Rutherglen & Hamilton West
01:00 - Motherwell & Wishaw
01:10 - Na h-Eileanan an Iar
01:30 - East Lothian; Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath; North East Fife
01:35 - Kilmarnock & Loudoun; Falkirk
01:45 - Inverclyde;  Livingston
01:55 - Linlithgow & Falkirk East
02:00 - Angus; Dunfermline & Fife West; Glenrothes; Paisley & Renfrewshire South; Dundee East
02:05 - Coatbridge; Chryston & Bellshill; Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East
02:06 - Glasgow East
02:15 - Airdrie & Shotts; Paisley & Renfrewshire North; Midlothian
02:18 - Glasgow Central
02:20 - Stirling
02:30 - Perth & Perthshire North; Renfrewshire East; Dunbartonshire West
02:33 - Glasgow North
02:35 - Dundee West
02:40 - Moray; Berwickshire; Roxburgh & Selkirk
02:45 - Glasgow South West
02:47 - Edinburgh East
02:50 - Dunbartonshire East
02:55 - Glasgow South
03:07 - Edinburgh South West
03:10 - Glasgow North West; Banff & Buchan
03:13 - Glasgow North East
03:15 - Aberdeen South; Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross; Gordon; Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine; Edinburgh North & Leith
03:20 - Ayrshire North & Arran
03:25 - Ayrshire Central; Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
03:30 - Dumfries & Galloway
03:32 - Edinburgh West
03:45 - Aberdeen North
03:50 - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey; Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale
04:05 - Ochil & Perthshire South
04:39 - Ross, Skye & Lochaber
04:55 - Edinburgh South
06:00 - Orkney & Shetland
13:30 - Argyll & Bute

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are Carswell and Farage the only UKIP candidates with a semi-serious chance of winning?

The candidate in Thurrock.

Also in Castle Point. Although that looks slightly less likely.

Constituency polling appears to indicate - and insert all of the usual caveats about constituency polling here - that they are doing substantially better in Essex and Kent than elsewhere.

[Meeker]

Thanks, all

Will Simon Hughes lose?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Hows South Thanet looking?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will Simon Hughes lose?

It depends on whether his personal popularity will be enough to counteract the general wreckage, which is very hard to tell.

[Hifly]

Will Simon Hughes lose?

It depends on whether his personal popularity will be enough to counteract the general wreckage, which is very hard to tell.

Having canvassed in his constituency recently, I can vouch for his personal popularity, especially in social housing.
It's a toss of the coin as to who'll prevail in Bermondsey.

[Harry Hayfield]

Final Forecast for Prediction Competition (Entry to be updated shortly)
Conservatives 264 (leading in 21)
Labour 244 (leading in 22)
SNP 55 (leading in 2)
Lib Dem 20 (leading in 5)
DUP 9 (leading in 0)
SF 5 (leading in 0)
Plaid 3 (leading in 0)
SDLP 3 (leading in 0)
Green 1 (leading in 0)
Ind 1 (leading in 0)
Speaker 1 (leading in 0)
UKIP 1 (leading in 2)

Coalition Builder:
Con + Lib Dem + Unionists = 310
Lab + Lib Dem + SDLP + Plaid + Green = 298

SNP hold the balance of power

[afleitch]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/03/ed-miliband-sets-promises-in-stone?CMP=share_btn_fb

'Ed Miliband has commissioned a giant stone inscription bearing Labour’s six election pledges that is set to be installed in the Downing Street Rose Garden if he becomes prime minister.

The 8ft 6in-high limestone structure is intended to underline his commitment to keep his promises by having them literally “carved in stone” and visible from the offices inside No 10.'

[MaxQue]

I don't know what to say. I'm speechless.

Probably one of the most silly political stunts I ever heard about.

[136or142]

Australian Broadcasting Company Program "Rear Vision" on the U.K election.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/rearvision/uk-general-election/6416422

[Oakvale]

Miliband needs to fire whatever idiot convinced him that was a good idea immediately.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Finally pundits have a moment that they will compare to the Sheffield rally should Labour lose.

[Phony Moderate]

A swipe at the Lib Dems?

[Torie]

Just why on God's green earth would Labor want to form a government that is at the mercy of the SNP? Just asking.

[Simfan34]

Because they can't form a government otherwise.