UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Phony Moderate]

Does anyone else think that Cameron would prefer another Con-Lib Dem coalition to a majority? The coalition has to a large extent kept the right-wing backbenchers at bay; if the Tories had a majority (especially a smallish one) then it would be a different story. Ask John Major.

[© tweed]

no discussion of the bombshell Russell Brand (qualified) Labour endorsement / interview w/Ed Miliband?

[Zinneke]

no discussion of the bombshell Russell Brand (qualified) Labour endorsement / interview w/Ed Miliband?

Russell Brand is irrelevant in the British political scene. Most Labour voters consider him to be a cockney twat.

[afleitch]

Britain's 'favourite' 'viewspaper' the Independenthas backed the Coalition. This is rather out of the ordinary.

[YL]

Full figures for the ICM Hallam poll: Clegg (LD) 42, Coppard (Lab) 35, Walker (Con) 12, Jenkins (UKIP) 7, Garbutt (Green) 3, Other 2.

There are a number of possible reasons for the differences from the Ashcroft poll (which are, as the headline suggests, maybe Con down, LD up).  As well as the naming of candidates (the Lib Dems' favoured reason) note that the sample size is only 500, and that ICM's turnout and don't know adjustments seem to have made more difference than Ashcroft's (it was a tie without them), and who knows who was getting a better constituency sample.

ICM does, unfortunately, suggest that Clegg may be getting enough Tories to vote for him to save him.  Tories on 12% in Hallam would have seemed incredible 20 years ago.

[Torie]

Full figures for the ICM Hallam poll: Clegg (LD) 42, Coppard (Lab) 35, Walker (Con) 12, Jenkins (UKIP) 7, Garbutt (Green) 3, Other 2.

There are a number of possible reasons for the differences from the Ashcroft poll (which are, as the headline suggests, maybe Con down, LD up).  As well as the naming of candidates (the Lib Dems' favoured reason) note that the sample size is only 500, and that ICM's turnout and don't know adjustments seem to have made more difference than Ashcroft's (it was a tie without them), and who knows who was getting a better constituency sample.

ICM does, unfortunately, suggest that Clegg may be getting enough Tories to vote for him to save him.  Tories on 12% in Hallam would have seemed incredible 20 years ago.

Someone I think posted this poll above, and the link said that 48% of the Tory vote was going to Clegg for tactical reasons.

[Talleyrand]

Labour 89
Sinn Fein 82
SNP 81
Conservatives 77
Green 76
Plaid Cymru 73
Liberal Democrats 72
UKIP 53
BNP 15
DUP 11

Apparently my closest constituency is St. Ives.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Lab 33, Con 33, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 10, Greens 5

[jaichind]

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/04/independent-conservative-liberal-democrat-coalition-cameron-clegg

Independent backs another coalition between Tories and Liberal Democrats

This is a bit of a surprise

[ObserverIE]

YouGov: Lab 33, Con 33, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 10, Greens 5

Con -1, Lib Dem +1

#libdemsurge

[Lief 🗽]

If not for the RISE OF THE SNP this would have been an incredibly boring election. It's just been tied the whole time. Even the third parties haven't really moved at all. At least election night should be fun though.

[ObserverIE]

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/04/independent-conservative-liberal-democrat-coalition-cameron-clegg

Independent backs another coalition between Tories and Liberal Democrats

This is a bit of a surprise

How big is Alexander Lebedev's mansion again?

[Хahar 🤔]

Lab 94%
Grn 92%
SNP 84%
SF 79%
LD 77%
PC 76%
UKIP 41%
BNP 27%
DUP 18%
Con 13%

[Lief 🗽]

I got 100% with Labour in the test. The only issues I apparently disagree with them on are standardized testing and nuclear energy, both of which I don't feel strongly about. And apparently I'm closest to St. Ives, which is weird. But Andrew George is pretty cool.

[ilikeverin]

The "closest constituency" thing often seems to do what's geographically closest.  I also "got" St. Ives, but that's presumably because St. Ives is the closest constituency to Maryland.  The heatmap showed that St. Ives was only middlingly close to me politically, and the constituencies I noted looked reddest on the map (although there was no way to look at the "best" one that I saw).

[Simfan34]

If not for the RISE OF THE SNP this would have been an incredibly boring election. It's just been tied the whole time. Even the third parties haven't really moved at all. At least election night should be fun though.

If not for the rise of the SNP it would be boring, because Labour would stand a good chance at getting a majority.

[The Lord Marbury]

The "closest constituency" thing often seems to do what's geographically closest.  I also "got" St. Ives, but that's presumably because St. Ives is the closest constituency to Maryland.  The heatmap showed that St. Ives was only middlingly close to me politically, and the constituencies I noted looked reddest on the map (although there was no way to look at the "best" one that I saw).

Yeah that definitely has to be it because I got 98% Labour on my test (followed by Greens, Lib Dems & SNP on 94, 93 and 91 respectively) and somehow ended up with Great Yarmouth as my "closest constituency".

[ObserverIE]

Lab 96
SNP 92
L Dem 88
Green 86
PC 83
SF 79
Con 64
UKIP 54
BNP 43
DUP 18

(SDLP as an option would have been interesting.)

I am a left-wing authoritarian (which makes me sound like Stalin - or at least Hifly ) who would feel most at home in Birkenhead, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Northampton South or Dundee West.

[Torie]

If not for the RISE OF THE SNP this would have been an incredibly boring election. It's just been tied the whole time. Even the third parties haven't really moved at all. At least election night should be fun though.

If not for the rise of the SNP it would be boring, because Labour would stand a good chance at getting a majority.

No, but Labor would be in a much better position to try to fashion a government with the Lib Dems, with the most seats and all. I mean, how many seats is Labor slated to lose in Scotland?  25 or something like that?

[Lief 🗽]

According to the 538 projections, closer to 35 seats. If not for the rise of the SNP they'd be around 305 to 315 at the moment probably (holding everything else constant of course; maybe without Tory fearmongering about SNP/Labour they'd be doing even better in England right now).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Needs to be noted that Labour had a very good election in Scotland in 2010 (in contrast to everywhere else) and that even had there not been a fundamental rupture in Scottish political life towards the end of last year, we can be pretty sure that seats would still have been lost. Nowhere near as many of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How big is Alexander Lebedev's mansion again?

A very good question!

[bore]

No one really knows what will happen in Scotland, but Labour could be losing almost all their seats.

Also I'd be wary about quoting the 538 forecast, firstly because, as I said, no one really knows, but also because it doesn't even seem to be a reasonable prediction (at least in Scotland). Apparently Labour are holding Dunfermline and West Fife by the largest margin, and the Lib Dems will get 22% there, which is just implausible. If Labour are reduced to a rump of 4 or 5 seats, I'm almost certain Dunferrmline and West Fife won't be one of them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...whereas coalitions of Labour with other parties lack this historical precedent.

Except for Wartime.

There is a solid chunk of the Labour Party that will forever oppose entering into a coalition with any other party.

Two solid chunks really; most of the hard Left and much of the traditional Right. And for the same reason in both cases (distrust of the bourgeois parties).

[Lief 🗽]

Wait, why does the right wing of Labour distrust bourgeois parties (more than the center does, at least)?