UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 160500 times)
Torie
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« Reply #1050 on: May 05, 2015, 11:39:00 AM »

Is Boris Johnson really to the right of Cameron politically, or viewed as such? He seems an odd vehicle to me for a right wing cleansing of Tory wets from influence in the wake of a defeat.
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rpryor03
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« Reply #1051 on: May 05, 2015, 11:59:51 AM »

Tories 89%
LD 76%
UKIP 72%
DUP 70%
Labour 68%
SNP 63%
PC 61%
BNP 58%
SF 55%
GRN 52%

Apparently I fit best in Bolsolver, Penrith, and Walsall.
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Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #1052 on: May 05, 2015, 12:04:26 PM »

Is Boris Johnson really to the right of Cameron politically, or viewed as such? He seems an odd vehicle to me for a right wing cleansing of Tory wets from influence in the wake of a defeat.

He appeals (or at least makes an effort to) to both the Left and the Right of the Conservative Party.
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Max Stirner
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« Reply #1053 on: May 05, 2015, 12:06:10 PM »

conservatives 82
ukip 76
libdem 71
labour 69
green 61
plaid cymru 66
snp 62
sinn fein  61
du 58
bn 23

i'm a libertarian!
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« Reply #1054 on: May 05, 2015, 12:06:15 PM »

Tories 89%
LD 76%
UKIP 72%
DUP 70%
Labour 68%
SNP 63%
PC 61%
BNP 58%
SF 55%
GRN 52%

Apparently I fit best in Bolsolver, Penrith, and Walsall.

Bolsover is Dennis Skinner's (our answer to...Bernie Sanders or Dennis Kucinich...maybe...but to the left of them both) seat...hmmm.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1055 on: May 05, 2015, 12:09:21 PM »

So all the polls are just converging to a Lab-Con tie before election day so that they can all either be wrong or right together? LOL, 21st century polling really is a treat.
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Zanas
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« Reply #1056 on: May 05, 2015, 12:11:19 PM »

So all the polls are just converging to a Lab-Con tie before election day so that they can all either be wrong or right together? LOL, 21st century polling really is a treat.
Well, I get you, but there may also be the case where they actually are tied, you know.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1057 on: May 05, 2015, 12:15:05 PM »

Populus: Labour 34, Con 34, UKIP 13, LDem 10, Greens 5, Others 4

Note that Populus made another change to their methodology the other week.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1058 on: May 05, 2015, 01:07:41 PM »

Is Boris Johnson really to the right of Cameron politically, or viewed as such? He seems an odd vehicle to me for a right wing cleansing of Tory wets from influence in the wake of a defeat.

I've seen him compared to Heseltine, politically and personality-wise. Although in fairness it might just be the hair.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1059 on: May 05, 2015, 01:17:42 PM »

Survation:

Lab 34, Con 33, UKIP 16 (-1), Lib Dem 9 (+1), Greens 4.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1060 on: May 05, 2015, 01:48:06 PM »

It's worth considering how overall vote totals translate into constituency results. A party that polls 30% nationally will not poll over 60% in many constituencies unless its vote is extremely concentrated. Similarly a party that polls 10% nationally will not poll over 20% in many constituencies and will poll over 30% in very few, unless (again) its vote is extremely concentrated.
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Torie
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« Reply #1061 on: May 05, 2015, 02:33:05 PM »

Do these polls have regional cross-tabs at all that give any sense at all just how uniform the swing will be outside of Scotland, which is doing its own thing?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1062 on: May 05, 2015, 03:34:10 PM »

I haven't seen much mention of the strong possibility that if in fact both Labour and Tories are tied in national vote shares that should actually mean a Labour victory in terms of seats won over the Tories.  There doesn't seem to be much of a "tie equals Labour win" narrative.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1063 on: May 05, 2015, 03:46:12 PM »

I haven't seen much mention of the strong possibility that if in fact both Labour and Tories are tied in national vote shares that should actually mean a Labour victory in terms of seats won over the Tories.  There doesn't seem to be much of a "tie equals Labour win" narrative.

Well, it's less true since Scotland events happened. Labour should lose 30 to 40 seats in Scotland to SNP.
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136or142
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« Reply #1064 on: May 05, 2015, 03:51:36 PM »

I haven't seen much mention of the strong possibility that if in fact both Labour and Tories are tied in national vote shares that should actually mean a Labour victory in terms of seats won over the Tories.  There doesn't seem to be much of a "tie equals Labour win" narrative.

Well, it's less true since Scotland events happened. Labour should lose 30 to 40 seats in Scotland to SNP.

At this point it looks like Labour will lose seats in Scotland they don't even hold to the SNP!
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1065 on: May 05, 2015, 04:06:26 PM »

Hmmm, I was thinking that just in England and Wales Labour would still have an advantage in seats vs the Tories if they get an even amount of votes, just much less of an advantage without Scotland.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #1066 on: May 05, 2015, 04:26:42 PM »

90% Conservative.

Said I was a "moderate libertarian", though. Huh
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jaichind
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« Reply #1067 on: May 05, 2015, 04:28:39 PM »

ComRes  Conservatives 35%, Labour 32% UKIP 14%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Green Party 4%
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« Reply #1068 on: May 05, 2015, 04:35:02 PM »

YouGov: Lab 34, Con 34, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 9, Greens 5
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jaichind
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« Reply #1069 on: May 05, 2015, 04:42:01 PM »

With respect to polling it comes down to which do you believe, phone polls (CON ahead by 2 or 3) or internet polls (tie between CON and LAB) ?

The argument for phone polls is that it is not self selecting which means it is more random.
The argument for internet polls is that it takes into account of the shy UKIP voter.  UKIP does much better in internet polls where there less social pressure to admitting that one supports UKIP.

We will see Thursday.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1070 on: May 05, 2015, 04:47:13 PM »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11583094/Labour-candidate-says-Miliband-wont-keep-promises-just-because-theyre-set-in-stone.html

Ed Miliband could break 'set in stone' pledges, Labour campaign chief admits

Huh ?  It seems she did try to walk it back.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1071 on: May 05, 2015, 04:52:23 PM »

And we have another poll from BMG (whoever the hell they are)... Labour 34, Con 34, UKIP 12, LDem 10, Greens 4, Others 6.
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Brewer
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« Reply #1072 on: May 05, 2015, 04:57:47 PM »

LibDem 97%
Labour 96%
Green 93%
SNP 90%
Plaid Cymru 83%
Sinn Fein  76%
Tory  55%
BNP 34%
UKIP 23%
DUP 9%

Apparently I'm a "left-wing" authoritarian.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1073 on: May 05, 2015, 05:00:26 PM »

It's weird that ISideWith apparently believe that the Liberals are closer to Labour and the Greenies than their allies...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1074 on: May 05, 2015, 05:00:31 PM »

Lib Dems seem to be cracking double digits more often in the past week or so.

#Cleggmania2.0
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