UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Clyde1998]

I've constructed a model to give a Scotland poll of polls:

SNP - 43.3%
Lab - 25.5%
Con - 16.8%
Lib - 6.8%
UKIP - 4.3%
Grn - 2.8%
Others - 0.6%

It's based on eleven poll sub-samples from the last seven days - there have been thirteen polls in that time, but the TNS data didn't make sense and Panelbase didn't include regional sub-samples in their poll data.

There are no full-scale Scotland polls in this time frame, but they would count ten times more when there are more.

The polls are weighted by date, so polls from seven days ago are 1/7th less important in the poll that ones from today.

[Clyde1998]

Labour-held seats in Scotland - ComRes Poll:
SNP - 43%
Labour - 37%
Conservatives - 13%
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 2%
Lib Dems - 2%

Poll conducted in the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland - Labour would be left with 12 MPs according to this poll.

[Clyde1998]

Labour-held seats in Scotland - ComRes Poll:
SNP - 43%
Labour - 37%
Conservatives - 13%
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 2%
Lib Dems - 2%

Poll conducted in the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland - Labour would be left with 12 MPs according to this poll.

More from this poll.

Which two of the following best represents why you would vote for the SNP? [2015 SNP voters]
I want Scotland to be an independent country - 56% [40% of 2010 Labour voters]
Labour no longer represents people like me - 35% [48% of 2010 Labour voters]
The other parties have broken promises on devolution - 30% [29% of 2010 Labour voters]
The way Labour campaigned with the Conservatives during the referendum - 29% [36% of 2010 Labour voters]
They have the best policies generally - 26% [16% of 2010 Labour voters]
I am voting for a specific local candidate more than for a party - 4% [1% of 2010 Labour voters]
Other Reason - 2% [5% of 2010 Labour voters]
Don't Know - 1% [0% of 2010 Labour voters]

Which two of the following best represents why you are voting for your chosen party? [2015 Non-SNP voters]
I want to keep Scotland as part of the UK - 56%
It's the party that most closely reflects my views - 49%
I don't want a Conservative-led Government - 33%
It's the party with the leader who I most want to be Prime Minister - 16%
I am voting for a specific local candidate more than for a party - 9%
I want to keep Labour out of power - 9%
Other Reason - 2%
Don't Know - 2%

If the General Election results in a hung parliament with the SNP winning a significant number of MPs In Westminster after the General Election in May, which of the following would you most like to see the SNP do? [All voters]
No formal agreement with either party - 41% [41% of SNP supporters]
Support a minority Labour government but not in full Coalition - 21% [33% of SNP supporters]
Join a formal Coalition government with Labour - 21% [19% of SNP supporters]
Join a formal Coalition government with the Conservatives - 5% [1% of SNP supporters]
Support a minority Conservative government but not in full Coalition - 4% [1% of SNP supporters]

[Clyde1998]

Farage's only contribution to this debate so far seems to be xenophobia. *Sigh*

[Clyde1998]

The "Progressive Alliance" (Sturgeon, Wood, Bennett) seem to have performed best, in my opinion, so far.

Immigration next.

[Clyde1998]

Farage going full right wing with his comment about open borders to "10 former Communist countries."

That comment on AIDS though, hopefully that gets broadcast as much as possible - that'll kill UKIP off.

[Clyde1998]

ComRes:


Net ratings:
Sturgeon +16%
Miliband +7%
Cameron +6%
Clegg +3%
Farage +1%
Wood -14%
Bennett -25%

[Clyde1998]

I'm being told that 1,400 people have joined the SNP tonight - bring their membership to around 105,000.

[Clyde1998]

NO ONE WINS DEBATE is not a great headline which is probably why le beeb has gone with LEADERS CLASH. lmao

I don't think the BBC would say "Person X wins debate" even if there was a clear winner - as they wouldn't want to influence people's opinions.

[Clyde1998]

ComRes Scotland sub-sample

Performed Best:
Sturgeon - 53%
Farage - 13%
Cameron - 12%
Miliband - 11%
Clegg - 6%
Bennett - 4%
Wood - 2%

Performed Worst:
Farage - 28%
Wood - 19%
Bennett - 18%
Miliband - 12%
Cameron - 12%
Clegg - 5%
Sturgeon - 5%
 
Net:
Sturgeon +48%
Clegg +1%
Cameron +0%
Miliband -1%
Bennett -12%
Farage -15%
Wood -17%

More likely to vote for party following debates:
SNP - 54%
Lab - 17%
Con - 17%
Grn - 10%
UKIP - 8%
Lib - 6%

I emphasis though, it's only a sub-sample.

[Clyde1998]

I guess it's too late for the SNP to find candidates to field in the rest of Britain. Shame.

They have until Wednesday to confirm their candidate list, so if you ask enough...

[Clyde1998]

Analysing Farage's HIV/AIDS comment - which is one of the main flash points from yesterday's debate:

"There are 7,000 diagnoses in this country every year for people who are HIV positive, but 60 percent of them are not for British nationals. You can come into Britain, from anywhere in the world, and get diagnosed with HIV, and get the anti-retroviral drugs which cost up to £25,000 per year per patient. I know there are horrible things happening in many parts of the world, but we need to put the system there for British families who have paid into it for decades."

He said 7,000 were diagnosed annually - and 60% weren't British nationals. So 4,200 are non-British nationals, implying £105m is spent annually on non-British nationals with HIV/AIDS or 0.11% of the total NHS budget - assuming his figures are correct (which they're not).

Public Health England says that 6,000 people were diagnosed with HIV in 2013, and 54% [3,240] were foreign-born. Foreign-born doesn't necessarily mean health tourist. Boris Johnson was born in the United States, for example, but he's a British national.

So not only is the comment sickening, but it's also completely wrong factually.

[Clyde1998]

Because they can't leave us alone over Easter, Survation are apparently spoiling us with a post-debate voting intention poll.

UKIP over 20% - I'm certain Survation are over estimating the UKIP vote share at the moment.

[Clyde1998]

So... everyone's up based on yesterday's debate?

[Clyde1998]

Whatever happened to those really obscure (and awful) ones who were around at this time five years ago? BPIX and One Poll may have been their names. Also, what about Harris (one of the better pollsters in days gone by) and the hilarious Angus Reid?

One Poll still exist, but they don't do political polling any more - by the looks of it.

[Clyde1998]

We should set up a dodgy polling company of our own. And do what certain American ones did and blatantly make up numbers. All we'd have to do is follow the crowd!

Our first poll...

Con - 35%
Lab - 34%
UKIP - 12%
Lib - 8%
Grn - 5%
SNP - 4%
Oth - 2%

I asked 1,000 people who exist... honestly...

[Clyde1998]

Conservatives and Labour are starting under pressure over coalition deals with UKIP and the SNP respectively.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32176517

[Clyde1998]

Panelbase have polled Scotland again. Don't have the full figures as they come from a scanned copy of their front page

SNP 45% (+4)
Labour 29% (-2)

Con 14% (N/C)
Lib 4% (+1)
Ukip 4% (-3%)
Grn 2% (N/C)

to complete it.

It's Panelbase's second largest led for the SNP over Labour ever (in Westminster polling).

Sample dates: 30th March - 2nd April

[Clyde1998]

Good news for both the Greens and the Lib Dems today, I'd say.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32198938

YouGov's website contains a live (unweighted) poll.

Today Tony Blair is publicly endorsing Ed Miliband. Do you think this will help or hinder the Labour party’s election campaign?

After 10,222 votes:
Help - 15%
Hinder - 50%
Neither - 24%
Don't Know - 11%

The weighted poll goes live at 6pm - so it'll be interesting to see what Labour voters think about this...

[Clyde1998]

I'm listening to the STV debate between the Scottish leaders - Ruth Davidson (Conservative) has said that the Conservatives would attempt to form a majority government if they're the largest party.

Meanwhile, Jim Murphy (Labour) has said that "David Cameron ain't no Lionel Messi"...

[Clyde1998]

I'm listening to the STV debate between the Scottish leaders - Ruth Davidson (Conservative) has said that the Conservatives would attempt to form a majority government if they're the largest party.

Meanwhile, Jim Murphy (Labour) has said that "David Cameron ain't no Lionel Messi"...

I didn't watch, but I'm seeing that Sturgeon went full Marois on the neverendum question...

She said that she wouldn't rule out another referendum after the 2016 Scottish election, but she didn't say if it would definitely be in or not in the 2016 SNP manifesto.

It's not certain that it will be in it under any terms, but it could be in the manifesto under certain terms (such as Scotland voting to stay in the EU, but the UK leaving).

[Clyde1998]

So, a generation  = two years, or so, in Scotland.

It is in some parts of Glasgow.

The second referendum question brings me on to this:

BBC Scotland/Ipsos Mori Poll:
Please give each policy statement a score between 1 to 10, where 1 means that you think it should never be put in place, and 10 means that it is very important and should be put in place quickly.

Listed below are the average scores for each are in square brackets []

Increase the minimum wage for those aged 21 and over from £6.50 to £7.85 per hour [8.2]
Guarantee that old age pensions will rise over the next five years [7.9]
Stop energy companies from increasing prices for 20 months [7.7]
Ensure authorities cannot access personal data unless an individual is suspected of taking part in an illegal activity [7.6]
Introduce a tax on homes worth more than two million pounds, commonly known as the Mansion Tax [7.4]
Give the Scottish Parliament the power to increase benefits and old age pensions [7.3]
Increase the top rate of tax to 50p in the pound for those earning more than £150,000 a year [7.2]
Give the Scottish Parliament full control of welfare benefits [7.1]
Stop migrants from the EU from claiming welfare benefits until they have been in the UK for at least four years [6.8]
Give the Scottish Parliament full control of income tax [6.8]
Give the Scottish Parliament control of all areas of policy apart from Defence and Foreign Affairs [6.5]
Bring the railways into public ownership [6.5]
Increase spending on public services even if the deficit doesn't get eliminated by the end of the next Parliament in 2020 [6.3]
Put a cap on the total amount paid in welfare benefits to a household [6.3]
Impose a limit on the number of people coming to live in the UK [6.3]
Increase the amount spent on the armed forces [6.2]
Hold a referendum to ask people whether they wish to stay in or leave the European Union [6.1]
Reduce the amount the government borrows by cutting spending rather than by increasing taxes [5.7]
Hold another referendum on Scottish independence within the next five years [5.6]
Charge better-off older people for some things which are currently free to all older people [5.2]
Eliminate the deficit by the end of the next Parliament in 2020 even if that means reduced spending on public services [4.6]
Reduce taxes even if that means cutting public services [4.0]
Renew and upgrade Trident, Britain's nuclear deterrent [4.0]

Data Tables for Wave One: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/07_04_2015_electionpoll.pdf
Data Tables for Wave Two: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/08_04_2015_poll_daytwo.pdf

Hold another referendum on Scottish independence within the next five years [5.6]
1-4 - 42% - Not Important
5-6 - 10%
7-10 - 48% - Very Important

Seems it's not too unlikely to come back quickly after all...

[Clyde1998]

Nominations close at 4pm tomorrow.

I've noticed that Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems don't have candidates in a couple of Scottish seats (so far). I can't tell if that's tactical or not...

[Clyde1998]

There's yet another debate tonight - this time on BBC Scotland.

Scotland's UKIP MEP reckons that Alex Salmond is still the SNP leader...

[Clyde1998]

I'm intrigued by the idea of Labour and SNP winning a majority of seats with nowhere near a majority of votes.  Any ideas on what the bare minimum of a total vote share might be needed to pull this off?

Labour won a majority of seats in 2005, with only 35% of the vote - so I assume it can't be too far away from that.