UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Harry Hayfield]

Here's my forecast using the average of the polls in the first week



Conservatives 273
Labour 302
Liberal Democrats 38
Scottish Nationalists 15
Plaid Cymru 2
Greens 1
Speaker 1

I will be forecasting Northern Ireland once nominations close today

[Harry Hayfield]

I was going to say that it's based entirely on GB-wide polls...but in that case the Lib Dems wouldn't be as high as 38.

That is indeed correct, I am using GB wide polls but a doing the following to reflect the SNP and Green surge.

Most polls list the vote share for Con, Lab, Lib Dem, UKIP and Green. Where a poll rating is listed I enter that into my tables. In the 2010 general election, Plaid Cymru polled 9.52% of the total Others vote, the SNP 63.49% and the Others 26.98%, so I allocate the Other vote between those three parties (so in this average) I have Plaid 0.51%, SNP 3.46%, Others 1.47%.

I then enter those numbers into UK-Elect and then add a 1% swing from Lab to Con (difference between the exit poll and the final result) and then add in incumbency for all parties (Con, Lab, Lib Dem incumbents do 2% better than the UK average, Plaid incumbents 4% better and SNP incumbents 5% better) and that is what produces that forecast.

[Harry Hayfield]

Are the seats in white ties?

That's right, the border indicate the party that is in the lead

[Harry Hayfield]

Week Two Forecast
Labour 305 seats
Conservatives 282 seats
Liberal Democrats 25 seats
Other Parties 38 seats



Changes on last week
East Dunbartonshire from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Ross, Skye and Lochaber from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Falkirk from SNP to too close to call (SNP leading)
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Fife North East from too close to call (SNP leading) to SNP
Brecon and Radnorshire from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Cardiff Central from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to too close to call (Lab leading)
Vale of Glamorgan from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr from too close to call (Plaid leading) to Plaid
Bedford from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Peterborough from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Norwich North from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Bermondsey and Old Southwark from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Croydon Central from too close to call (Lab leading) to too close to call (Con leading)
Carshalton and Wallington from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Sutton and Cheam from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to Con
Hornsey and Wood Green from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to Lab
High Peak from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Cannock Chase from too close to call (Con leading) to too close to call (Lab leading)
Dudley South from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Eastleigh from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Eastbourne from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Hove from too close to call (Lab leading) to Lab
Bristol West from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Stroud from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Cheltenham from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Chippenham from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to too close to call (Con leading)
Taunton Deane from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
North Devon from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Torbay from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Cornwall North from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
St. Ives from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to too close to call (Con leading)
St. Austell and Newquay from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Somerton and Frome from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Wells from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Mid Dorset and Poole North from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Berwick upon Tweed from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Redcar from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to Lab
Weaver Vale from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Warrington South from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Cheadle from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
South Ribble from Con to too close to call (Con leading)

[Harry Hayfield]

The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

[Harry Hayfield]

I hold the view that Diane James would be a more successful leader; she comes across as a Sturgeon to Farage's Salmond.

That is the view of the only UKIP supporter in our village here in Ceredigion. He believes that Nigel Farage alienates as many people as he attracts and that Diane James would "bridge the gap between Conservatives and UKIP"

[Harry Hayfield]

If those recent polls that are actually tallying the SNP, then there has been a marked change. At the 2010 general election the SNP won 14.31% of the Others vote (UKIP + Green + Plaid + SNP + Others). According to those recent polls they are winning nearly 21% of the Others vote.

[Harry Hayfield]

To put the Glasgow SW swing into some context, the largest GE swing between Labour and the Tories since 1945 was around 19% - Brent North, 1997.

Largest swing (from two parties contesting the same seat in sequential elections) since 1987


1987: Western Isles (Lab GAIN from SNP) on a swing of 19.33% from SNP to Lab
1992: Glasgow, Govan (Lab HOLD) on a swing of 21.31% from Lab to SNP
1997: Brent North (Lab GAIN from Con) on a swing of 18.83% from Con to Lab
2001: Kingston and Surbiton (Lib Dem HOLD) on a swing of 15.92% from Con to Lib Dem
2005: Lagan Valley (DUP GAIN from UUP) on a swing of 38.13% from UUP to DUP
2010: Blaenau Gwent (Lab GAIN from Ind) on a swing of 29.17% from Ind to Lab

[Harry Hayfield]

Is there any mainland Scottish seat which anyone feels confident that the SNP won't win?

These are the least likely to be SNP gains (based on % swing)
41   Inverclyde   Labour   14,416   19.22%
42   Glasgow North West   Labour   13,611   19.40%
43   Glenrothes   Labour   16,448   20.31%
44   West Dunbartonshire   Labour   17,408   20.59%
45   Paisley & Renfrewshire South   Labour   16,614   20.90%
46   East Renfrewshire   Labour   10,420   20.96%
47   Motherwell and Wishaw   Labour   16,806   21.48%
48   Rutherglen & Hamilton West   Labour   21,002   22.35%
49   Glasgow South West   Labour   14,671   23.08%
50   Coatbridge   Labour   20,714   24.88%
51   Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath   Labour   23,009   25.21%
52   Orkney and Shetland   Liberal Democrat   9,928   25.71%
53   Glasgow North East   Labour   15,942   27.10%

[Harry Hayfield]

General Election Forecast (Week Three)

Taking the advice of members from last week, I am now doing England and Wales and Scotland as separate forecasts (and combining them after the forecasts)

Conservatives 268 (leading in 15)
Labour 243 (leading in 18)
Liberal Democrats 35 (leading in 3)
Scottish National Party 40 (leading in 4)
Plaid Cymru 3 (leading in 0)
Green Party 1 (leading in 0)
Others 20 (leading in 0)



Coalition Builder
Con + Lib Dem = 321 (with DUP / UUP supply and confidence) = 330

[Harry Hayfield]

Another UKIP question.  Doesn't Cameron's promise to hold an EU in or out referendum during the next parliament's term amount to a giant move toward the very essence of what UKIP wants?  This being the case, does it make sense for UKIP to be running candidates in tory marginal seats where the main effect of its candidates might be to allow the victory of an anti-referendum labour candidate. UKIP could still run candidates everywhere else, and against every prominent pro-European Union MP, but stand aside in all marginal tory seats where there is a likely tory pro-referendum sitting MP or MP candidate.

The following are all references to the word "referendum" in the Conservative manifesto:

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[Harry Hayfield]

Another UKIP question.  Doesn't Cameron's promise to hold an EU in or out referendum during the next parliament's term amount to a giant move toward the very essence of what UKIP wants?  This being the case, does it make sense for UKIP to be running candidates in tory marginal seats where the main effect of its candidates might be to allow the victory of an anti-referendum labour candidate. UKIP could still run candidates everywhere else, and against every prominent pro-European Union MP, but stand aside in all marginal tory seats where there is a likely tory pro-referendum sitting MP or MP candidate.

This might work, yes. The crucial problem is that UKIP is not clever enough to pull off such a thing.

I beg to differ. I believe that the influence of a UKIP candidate caused the following seats to change hands (when they would not have done if UKIP did not field a candidate)

2001: Cheadle, Guildford, Taunton
2005: Devon West and Torridge, Taunton, Weston Super Mare
2010: Thurrock

[Harry Hayfield]

How do you make those maps, I know using google earth? Apologies if it's been mentioned elsewhere....

And an SNP-Labour-Green coalition is looking likely. The latter if they gain a few more seats.

Yes, they are based on Google Earth but that is not who made them. They were made by the person who runs the Tally Room website (http://www.tallyroom.com.au/) and they have been a complete godsend since I discovered them in 2009. The colours have been sourced from the BBC's official website (and therefore will be colouring in the maps on election night) with once exception. Alliance was given a colour by the BBC in 2010 but this time around have been consigned to "Others" which is grey.

[Harry Hayfield]

I almost don't know why I'm posting this as it's a) by ComRes and b) is a marginals poll (urgh). But because I'm good to you...

This is apparently a poll of UKIP target seats.* Results and changes on 2010 are:

Conservatives 39% (-7.3)
Labour 28% (+1.7)
UK Independence Party 21% (+15.4)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-10.2)
Green Party 4% (+3.6)
Others 3% (-0.8)

As all of these are coastal (well... estuarial in a couple of cases but that's close enough...) there's plenty of salt around to help those numbers go down!

_{*South Thanet, Boston and Skegness, Thurrock, Forest of Dean, Great Yarmouth, North Thanet, East Worthing and Shoreham, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, South Basildon and East Thurrock, and Castle Point.}

UK-Elect says all of them would be Con HOLDS. Best result is in Castle Point (30%), worse reslt is in Thanet South (18%)

[Harry Hayfield]

Um...

As with all manifestoes published during this campaign, I have been interested in the financial aspects.

"The Children of the Atom also proposes a new tax system with a single 10 per cent annual tax on all electronic bank deposits and issued notes and coins. It also proposes a universal payment to everyone for life, from birth to death, of £27,000. Under the Seed scheme there will be free childcare provision, education and training for everyone until the age of 21"

According to the latest data I can find, M0 in April 2015 (the money supply of the UK) is running at £71½ billion, therefore a ten percent tax rate would produce £7.15 billion which during a year would generate £85.8 billion in tax revenues. Assuming a population in the UK of around 60 million, the bill for the universal payment would be £1.62 trillion a year.

[Harry Hayfield]

Conservatives 274 (leading in 19)
Labour 246 (leading in 23)
Scottish National Party 35 (leading in 6)
Liberal Democrats 18 (leading in 5)
Democratic Unionists 9 (leading in 0)
Sinn Fein 5 (leading in 0)
Plaid Cymru 3 (leading in 0)
SDLP 3 (leading in 0)
Alliance 0 (leading in 0)
Green 1 (leading in 0)
Independent 1 (leading in 0)
National Health Action 1 (leading in 0)
Speaker 1 (leading in 0)

[Harry Hayfield]

Final Forecast for Prediction Competition (Entry to be updated shortly)
Conservatives 264 (leading in 21)
Labour 244 (leading in 22)
SNP 55 (leading in 2)
Lib Dem 20 (leading in 5)
DUP 9 (leading in 0)
SF 5 (leading in 0)
Plaid 3 (leading in 0)
SDLP 3 (leading in 0)
Green 1 (leading in 0)
Ind 1 (leading in 0)
Speaker 1 (leading in 0)
UKIP 1 (leading in 2)

Coalition Builder:
Con + Lib Dem + Unionists = 310
Lab + Lib Dem + SDLP + Plaid + Green = 298

SNP hold the balance of power