UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, David Cameron wanted to appear folksy recently and ordered a hotdog.

And then he ate it with fork and knife, instead of using his hands like a normal person would ...

[Tender Branson]

The Tories open a 6-point lead in the new Guardian/ICM poll:



ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 1042 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 10-12 April 2015. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/conservatives-six-point-lead-guardian-icm-poll-labour

[Tender Branson]

The Tories are going to win the election:

[Tender Branson]

If Scotland and the Rest-UK have similar turnout and the SNP gets 50% in Scotland, it's a certainty that the SNP will get 5% of the total UK vote, for mathematical reasons.

No matter if the polls now say 3%, 4%, 5% or 6% SNP ...

[Tender Branson]

Turnout will almost certainly be higher in Scotland than in rUK.

The higher the turnout in Scotland, the better for the SNP to end up near 5%.

I'm currently predicting 4.6-4.8% for them.

[Tender Branson]

Mori: Con 35, Lab 30, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, Greens 8

Not good for Labour, but also not the first poll in which we have seen a weirdly high Green share.

Oh yeah, and "Others" are on 9...

Please don't be wrong!

The parliament in this case would be truly hung though, no? Neither Con-Lib or Lab-SNP could muster a majority. What would happen then?

Others at 9% (5% SNP + 4% small/local parties) looks right, based on historical results.

The big question is how the BNP will do: I guess they will only get 0.8-1% in this election, down from 2% in 2010. They already lost badly in the EU elections and most went to UKIP.

But together with the local NI parties, "others" should still get 4%.

I currently predict:

31.5% CON
31.0% LAB
15.0% UKIP
  8.5% LD
  5.0% Greens
  5.0% SNP
  4.0% Others

PS: The Mori poll looks like an outlier, the Greens are never going to win 8%.

[Tender Branson]

Royal baby: Duchess of Cambridge gives birth to daughter

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-32562117

...

Which party will benefit from this ? The Tories because stuff like this helps the incumbent party ?

[Tender Branson]

Which party will benefit from this ? The Tories because stuff like this helps the incumbent party ?

No one will benefit because (in actual fact) stuff like that never benefits anyone. If the polls are wrong to the advantage of the government then (as has already been suggested) polling firms will quite probably use it as an excuse, but that is not the same thing at all.

Maybe, but there's no precedent like this. Or has there even been a royal baby born in the final week of a GE campaign ?

And if there is a bounce in favour of the Tories on election day it will be hard to know if it's because of bad polls or because of a late feel-good swing from voters towards the Tories.

Of course, the polls might be wrong but they don't necessarily have to be (the baby-bounce could be real).

Impossible to know, unless this specific question is asked in an exit poll ... (LOL)

[Tender Branson]

Anyone have a summary of the polls?

Yes, Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Polls show a tight race, which could be good for turnout.