UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Accurate or not, it would not surprise me if class based voting in Britain is declining. It certainly has in the US. I mean, after all, both Labor and the Dems focus most of their efforts on appealing to the middle class, no?

"Middle class" has a different meaning in the US and UK.  In the US, pretty much everybody who isn't Bill Gates or homeless is considered "middle class." 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The British Labour Party, unlike the socialist parties of the continent, was never Marxist.  But I guess to you Fabianism and Marxism are indistinguishable. 

Well I understand the Labor party believes (believed) in free and fair elections, and not some dictatorship of the working class. I just meant viewing the world through a working class lens, and having a special affiliation with them. It was not meant to be a precise analytical statement. It was a suggestion that the Labor Party has become more bourgeoise in its perspectives - more attuned to the liberal gentry.

Stop reading Joel Kotkin, he's not even a good troll. Stop reading him.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Ashcroft constituency polls (salt necessary? Too early to say):

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Class War are standing in Maidenhead.  I wonder which side of the war the candidate thinks he's on.

The 7 constituencies Class War are running in are:

Chingford and Wood Green
Cities of London and Westminster
Croydon South
Lichfield
Maidenhead
Norwich South
Sherwood

That question could be asked of quite a few of those.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

An important article here from the Grauniad on different methods of polling this election and their accuracy.

En fin: I don't even know what is going on any more.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

An important article here from the Grauniad on different methods of polling this election and their accuracy.

En fin: I don't even know what is going on any more.

One can speculate about different polling methods all day long, but the ICM poll showed a five point move to the Tories from their last poll, presumably using the same polling methods. Odds are some of the move is just statistical noise within the margin of error.

Everything I read indicates it is a rogue poll (look at subsamples)

In contrast here is Ashcroft's poll: CON 33 LAB 33 LD 9 UKIP 13 GP 6

[Tetro Kornbluth]

New Ashcroft Scotland polls



All I can say is wow.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Given the polling and the fact that it seems to be more in line with the referendum result than the Hollyrood elections I wouldn't be surprised if the SNP actually did better in Glasgow than in Edinburgh. In which case, I'd say there is a good chance of Labour holding Edinburgh North and Leith.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

These national polls are resolutely refusing to give us a coherent narrative.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Prediction: Yougov's poll tomorrow will show a 3 point Labour lead, thus returning us back to the beginning.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I imagine those that do care very strongly about this are rather unlikely to be Labour voters anyway.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The more I follow this election, the less clue I have of what will actually happen.

Except I still expect a lot of that Green vote to be squeezed in favour of Labour come election day - which some people aren't factoring in or considering.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Prognosis as I said in my prediction thread: Labour are doing better in the small towns and provinicial cities than in the suburbs

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Are Carswell and Farage the only UKIP candidates with a semi-serious chance of winning?

The candidate in Thurrock.

Also in Castle Point. Although that looks slightly less likely.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Finally pundits have a moment that they will compare to the Sheffield rally should Labour lose.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

England should have a referendum as to whether they want Scotland to remain in the UK. The situation at this point, strikes me as kind of ludicrous. It really does not matter much really. It is not as if one needs a union to have a larger trade zone or for the common defense. So what is the point? And what was the justification for Scotland having too many seats in Parliament again?  And why are they voting on bills that have no impact on them locally? Isn't that like taxation without representation [responsibility for the consequences]?

Scotland is no longer over-represented in Parliament. That was resolved with the boundary review in the 2005-2010 parliament.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Labour 89
Lib Dems 89
Greens 82
SNP 80 (lol)
Plaid 77
Sinn Fein 73

Tories 33
UKIP 13
BNP 9
DUP 8

Apparently I'm closest to the voters of Ynys Mon than any other constituency (hahahahaha).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This is a leaflet going around in Harrow East