UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Lief 🗽]

I guess it's too late for the SNP to find candidates to field in the rest of Britain. Shame.

[Lief 🗽]

So can we write off Cleggmania 2.0?

It's so weird that he's even still their leader. Obviously I'm an American and don't follow British politics as closely as I do my own, but he just seems like a walking, talking disaster of a human being. I guess there was no one else in the party brave/dumb enough to replace him (as they'd only to end up leading the Lib Dems to an historic defeat anyway), but still...

[Lief 🗽]

some excellent spinning from the grauniad

[Lief 🗽]

This seems like an hilariously terrible idea to me...

[Lief 🗽]

It looks like the Tory tactic to paint Miliband as a womanizing badboy has backfired.

are you a #milifan?

[Lief 🗽]

Um...

endorsed.

[Lief 🗽]

Panelbase:

LAB - 34% (-)
CON - 31% (-2)
UKIP - 17% (+1)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 4% (-)

[Lief 🗽]

some insanity from the Express

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[Lief 🗽]

Survation released this poll:

Survation Opinion Poll (22nd - 23rd April)
CON - 33% (+2)
LAB - 29% (-6)
UKIP - 18% (+3)
LDEM - 10% (+1)

And then deleted it!

[Lief 🗽]

ComRes has Tories up 36-32
YouGov has Labour up 35-33

Survation also has a South Thanet poll:

UKIP - 39%
CON - 30%
LAB - 26%
GRN - 2%
LDEM - 2%

[Lief 🗽]

God I would love to see him lose his seat. His face on election night when they announce the results would be priceless.

[Lief 🗽]

sort of relevant Time Trumpet scene: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhTbOfXU5Gw&feature=youtu.be

[Lief 🗽]

There's really no need for Labour to make any deal with the SNP at all, either formal or informal. The SNP isn't insane. They'll vote against a Tory government and vote for or abstain on a Labour government. Obviously if they supported a Tory government they'd be destroyed, and they have no incentive to force another election, since they'll have already maxed out in Scotland; they'll have nowhere to go but down. I don't think Ed is bluffing.

[Lief 🗽]

[Lief 🗽]

It seems flimsy on paper, but just looking at the parties' official positions (I know) I feel like there should be a majority for most of what Labour wants to do, either based on SNP/Lib Dem support or Tory support. It depends on if parties will whip their MPs to vote against things purely to spite Labour, but say if Labour puts Trident up for a vote, it's not like the Tories are going to suddenly vote against it.

Reports are that if Cameron loses he wants to get out ASAP and then they'll bring in Boris Johnson.

[Lief 🗽]

Farage: Scottish people are the real racists (??!)

[Lief 🗽]

It looks like the Tories are moving ahead, however slightly.

[Lief 🗽]

People seem to think he's obviously lying or something, but if the polls are right and the seats are distributed as they currently look to be, he doesn't need to make any deal with the SNP (unless they are lying about their opposition to Tory rule and/or their left-wing credentials). He puts forward his budget, the SNP either votes for it because it's broadly similar to their manifesto or they vote against it and get blamed for bringing down a Labour government and we have another election where they have nowhere to go but down.

It's a bit ridiculous that these tiny fringe parties who get 5% of the national popular vote act like they are entitled to have huge influence and a ton of concessions just to vote for policies they ostensibly support.

[Lief 🗽]

that reply tho

[Lief 🗽]

What Time Does Each Constituency Declare?

[Lief 🗽]

2.Does anybody believe that people are lying to pollsters that they are supporting another party when they're actually going to vote British Union, errr, UKIP?

It's possible. That would explain why UKIP does slightly better in internet polls (and thus Tories do slightly worse).

[Lief 🗽]

If not for the RISE OF THE SNP this would have been an incredibly boring election. It's just been tied the whole time. Even the third parties haven't really moved at all. At least election night should be fun though.

[Lief 🗽]

I got 100% with Labour in the test. The only issues I apparently disagree with them on are standardized testing and nuclear energy, both of which I don't feel strongly about. And apparently I'm closest to St. Ives, which is weird. But Andrew George is pretty cool.

[Lief 🗽]

According to the 538 projections, closer to 35 seats. If not for the rise of the SNP they'd be around 305 to 315 at the moment probably (holding everything else constant of course; maybe without Tory fearmongering about SNP/Labour they'd be doing even better in England right now).

[Lief 🗽]

Wait, why does the right wing of Labour distrust bourgeois parties (more than the center does, at least)?