UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

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http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/e9p1am8k02/TimesRedBoxResults_150330_Ed_Miliband_Website.pdf

Milimentum?

I think Labour voters are finally, slowly but surely, starting to fall into line behind Ed.

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Plaid Cymru have launched their manifesto. Key pledges include:

Living wage by 2020
1000 more doctors for Welsh NHS
Transfer of justice system and policing to Cardiff
Opposition to Trident (duh)

What are Plaid's prospects this time round? Hold Arfon, have an eye on Ynys Mon and hope for a freak swing against the LibDems in Ceredigion?

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Even if the overall figures fit into wider patterns, you probably shouldn't over analyse anything ComRes churn out...

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Regarding Plaid, they're under pressure in Arfon and possibly Carmarthen East & Dinefwr. The Island is a law unto itself (of course), while they will be hoping for a repeat of 1992 in Ceredigion (I have no idea how likely or not that is). They always try in Llanelli but have yet to come close. Elsewhere they will make a noise but that's likely it.

Incidentally, it's not entirely impossible that after May there will be no Liberal seats in Wales for the first time since... er... well 'ever' will probably do. Since at least the 1720s if we're counting ancestral parties.

If Leanne Wood does well at the debate; whether real, perceived or crowned by the media, where might it have an effect, if anywhere?

I'd think the Valleys in the south, but it wouldn't translate into many, if any, seats.

I do think that Leanne Wood has the potential to do well, but chances are, she'll be shouted out by the other 6. She comes across as quite likable and she has the Clegg factor of no one knowing who on Earth she is.

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If Leanne Wood does well at the debate

That's a pretty big 'if', to be honest.

Now now.

Bet she does a section in Welsh, just to really throw the others off.

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http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-liberal-democrat-battleground/

Ashcroft back in part of the LD battleground.

Clegg still behind in Hallam, but they've pulled it back in Cambridge. Tories doing well in their targets.

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I don't get why Leanne Wood or the SNP are in the debates? Surely have regional debates instead. It's just going to ruin the debates because people will have no idea why some regional party from wales are there

That's exactly what Cameron wanted with his flounce over the debates.

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I'm listening to the STV debate between the Scottish leaders - Ruth Davidson (Conservative) has said that the Conservatives would attempt to form a majority government if they're the largest party.

Meanwhile, Jim Murphy (Labour) has said that "David Cameron ain't no Lionel Messi"...

I didn't watch, but I'm seeing that Sturgeon went full Marois on the neverendum question...

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Ashcroft (and the pundits who are riskily taking his word/polls as gospel) could wake up with plenty of egg on their faces on May 8th if the (former) Lord hasn't pulled it off properly.

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Any constituencies with a winner between 25-30% this time do we think?

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Probably an outlier, but Labour have been creeping up this week.

Survation have Ed's approvals at the highest for 5 years, ahead of the PM.

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YouGov/Times Scotland Poll:
SNP - 49% (+4%)
Lab - 25% (-3%)
Con - 18% (+2%)
Lib - 4% (+1%)

SNP surge to largest ever YouGov lead.

Unexpected actually.

Who knew Nicola's tartan was teflon?

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YouGov/Times Scotland Poll:
SNP - 49% (+4%)
Lab - 25% (-3%)
Con - 18% (+2%)
Lib - 4% (+1%)

SNP surge to largest ever YouGov lead.

Unexpected actually.

I was expecting Labour to close the gap, but obviously not. Are the Conservatives going to beat Labour in Scotland?

No.

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some excellent spinning from the grauniad

Of epic proportions (from the newspaper which led the parade of Cleggmania last time, might I add). Although, we've still not seen anything of Lynton's promised 'crossover' yet and the clock's ticking. The important polling figure to take from today (even if it is Survation) is that Ed's making gains on leadership, and this could neutralise of the Tory's key attacks on Labour.

Although, the Tories should be weary of a narrative starting to build up. They've not had a good few days at all.

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Hmm...

https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/586921688790511616

Good grief. Who next? Keir himself?

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Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

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Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

That's the thing, Labour'll never support independence, that's just not the party that it is.

The problem is, Labour are trying to make traditional class politics play to an electorate where identity politics has definitely become the new flavour of the month. The SNP will get themselves into trouble when a selection of voters, eventually, in a few year, get tired and the party over plays the 'identity' card and it starts to alienate people - as happens in plenty of separatist movements, the world over. The SNP won't want to gain a reputation over the next 10-15 years as 'the party of no'.

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Scotland is going to be an utter bloodbath.

Basically, Labour have no clue what to do about their Scottish problem.

The best they can hope for this time is to win over plenty of Tory/LibDem tacticals and they'll hold onto about 10 as a best case scenario.

And to think that voting SNP will always mean voting for a Labour government by proxy is, quite frankly, fanciful.

What I'm seeing is a lot of image of people saying "we voted Labour in 2010, etc. and got a Conservative Government - vote SNP to ensure Scotland's voice is always heard".

I think the only way Labour will be able to fight back in Scotland is to support independence (or FFA at least) - but it could be too late for them now.

That is the one of the worst arguments for or against anything that I've ever heard.

Again, it's the politics of identity that has taken over north of the border.

Plenty of swathes of the country in the North of England and Wales voted overwhelmingly against the Tories in 2010 and still got the Tories, but that's how elections work, as upsetting as that may be.

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Take it as just another poll until the rest start showing it.

ICM normally do have weird results, but their final one will be the yard stick people use for election night.

Another reason could be that UKIPers are wavering towards undecided. Under ICM's model, I think a chunk just get assigned back to the Tories then.

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It's worth noting that it is conventionally assumed that one in ten polls from a given pollster will be 'wrong', due to the unavoidable difficulties of getting a genuinely accurate sample and so on. I mention this specifically because the internals of this one are really screwy: I suspect that they (rather than the odd headline figures) are why ICM have suggested that salt is required before consumption.

I seem to remember every other ICM getting labeled as an outlier...

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The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

Well this could get interesting...

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The death has been announced this evening of Ronnie Carroll (Britain's entry in Eurovision for 1963 and 1964) which means that the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency will be postponed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

No, it won't. He was an independent, and, so, the election is continuing as planned.

As glad as I am it'll still go ahead, what f'in bizarre technicality in the law that it doesn't count if you're an indie.

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Time for some more salt: we have some more Ashcroft constituency polls.  Most of these are ones which need about a 5% swing for Labour to win.

Cleethorpes: Con 2 ahead of Lab
Crewe & Nantwich: Lab 3 ahead of Con
Dover: Con 8 ahead of Lab
Dudley South: Con 4 ahead of Lab
Finchley & Golders Green: Lab 2 ahead of Con
Harlow: Con 10 ahead of Lab
Milton Keynes South: Lab 2 ahead of Con
North East Somerset: Con 16 ahead of Lab (I suppose voters tend to like "characters")
Rossendale & Darwen: Con/Lab tie
South Ribble: Con/Lab tie

Yeah, Halfon and Rees-Mogg are two who'll hold on until their personal vote goes stale.

Again, Labour are beating the Tories on the ground. Important for obvious reasons, postals, GOTV, etc.

Finchley's probably the most interesting. It's the furthest Tory seat down Labour's list to change hands of all the seats Ashcroft's polled ever. They could take Finchley and struggle in seats as high up the list as Pudsey and Gloucester.

Crewe, which is quite far down the Labour target list, had an over inflated majority because of the by-election, of course.

If you believe Ashcroft's marginal polling (again, salt needed) Labour should be on for about ~50-60 gains, while losing about ~30-35 in Scotland.

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Thought. Is this 'he stabbed David in the back' meme that's reemerged over the last fortnight an attempt by Lynton Crosby to play the Rudd-Gillard game?

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As I think I've noted before, Labour have a very good candidate in Finchley so a surprisingly good Labour figure there does not come as a shock. Anyway, intuitively most of those don't look particularly dodgy (just so long as you remember that even more than national polls these are indicative more than they are anything else) and do fit in with the pattern of better Labour performances in the North and London than elsewhere. Not sure about the Dudley South figure though, but we'll see.

Yeah, the regional swings I think are going to be odd. It's not entirely inconceivable that Labour hit all but 1-2 targets in the North West, while missing out on loads in the South and the Midlands.

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It seems that there is a very strong Independent candidate running in East Devon (a safe Tory seat). Normally local government independents who try to transfer to General Elections are lucky to poll 10%, but there are indications that this one might be a little different.

Although, after a quick Google, I see she's not at all UKIPy, I feel like UKIP would have to give an independent a free run in this part of the world if they were to win.