UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[rob in cal]

I'm intrigued by the idea of Labour and SNP winning a majority of seats with nowhere near a majority of votes.  Any ideas on what the bare minimum of a total vote share might be needed to pull this off?

[rob in cal]

Were there any talks between the Tories and UKIP of a limited electoral pact wherein UKIP doesn't run candidates in most marginal seats held by a pro-referendum Tory, and in return the Tories stand down in some Labour held seats that UKIP have visions, however far fetched, of winning?
   This would seem to make a lot of sense if in fact UKIP is serious about wanting a referendum about withdrawal from the EU, as surely it would be help elect more MP's in favor of it.  Or perhaps it would be more of a wash, as so many UKIP voters would then wander over to Labour in many of these Tory marginal seats?

[rob in cal]

    Are there any seats in England where UKIP is not fielding a candidate?  If so those seats might be nice test cases for UKIP's impact on the Tory vote %.

[rob in cal]

Another UKIP question.  Doesn't Cameron's promise to hold an EU in or out referendum during the next parliament's term amount to a giant move toward the very essence of what UKIP wants?  This being the case, does it make sense for UKIP to be running candidates in tory marginal seats where the main effect of its candidates might be to allow the victory of an anti-referendum labour candidate. UKIP could still run candidates everywhere else, and against every prominent pro-European Union MP, but stand aside in all marginal tory seats where there is a likely tory pro-referendum sitting MP or MP candidate.

[rob in cal]

It seems that if UKIP is around 10 or 11, Conservatives have a lead, if higher than that, Labour does.  I think the big question will be how strongly does UKIP vote hold up, and Green also.

[rob in cal]

On aspect of the Greens that I haven't found much mention of is that in 2010 they only ran about 300 candidates, and were missing in some of the marginal seats.  This year they are running in almost all of the England marginal seats, I believe.

[rob in cal]

  The irony about the legitimacy argument is that a better one will probably be available than "the second placed party shouldn't form the government."  Potentially the combination of all the non-leftist parties (Lib Dem, Conservatives, UKIP, DUP, UUP and minor odds and ends) might very well win a solid, clear majority of votes, by a large amount, and yet will have a minority of seats. Of course its not as if the Conservatives haven't had a chance to implement PR and they reject it (foolishly in my view) so there's a certain justice to them being burned by an unrepresentative electoral system as they support FPTP.
     Still, any claims of political unfairness in a Labour minority government backed by the SNP would resonate more with me ( if I were in the UK that is) if they referenced the solid majority of votes won by parties which  will likely have a clear minority of seats.
   

[rob in cal]

Had the AV referendum passed, I wonder what this election would look like.  What percentage of second preference UKIP voters would go Tory, how many labour?  I think the Greens second choice would be heavily Labour, like 80-10, but UKIP I'm thinking 70-20 to the Conservatives, or is that too high?  I realize that many UKIP voters are former Labour voters, but it seems to be the Conservatives who are appealing to them on two primary issues to UKIP, an EU referendum and immigration.
   Also, the second choice of Lib Dems I would gather guess would be a pretty even split, as many of those who are still voting Lib Dem can't be too irritated with Lib Dem cooperation with the Conservatives. 
    Anyway, my guess is that with the help of UKIP second preferences going to the Conservatives, they would hold onto many marginal seats that they are probably going to lose due to FPTP.

[rob in cal]

If the latest Ashcroft polls are close to accurate its probably good news for Labour, especially the High Peak results. If they are that close to winning there what does that mean for the dozens of others much more marginal than High Peak?

[rob in cal]

One thing is that its possible that the only way the Conservatives don't lose too many seats is if they win some from the LD's, and of course the LD's will lose other seats to Labour and SNP, so the LD's faction is going to be that much smaller, and that much less helpful in keeping Cameron in.

[rob in cal]

Just read that Farage came out in favor of some type of tactical voting two weeks ago, basically saying that UKIP voters should vote for the Tories in areas of UKIP weakness, and as a way to defeat Labour, saying voters "should use their votes as wisely as they can".   Hmm, maybe UKIP should have used their Party as wisely as they could and not run candidates in Tory-Labour marginals.  This isn't rocket science Nigel.  Just as UKIP isn't running in Scotland, not running candidates in another 75 English districts would hardly have hurt UKIP too badly, IMHO. They still could have run candidates against all sitting Labour members and gone all out to defeat Conservatives in safe Tory seats. 

[rob in cal]

In its manifesto the SNP calls for Proportional Representation.  I wonder if the huge SNP delegation about to come in will still be in favor of PR with many of the new MP's only elected because of FPTP.  Also, would they insist on some type of Labour move toward it as a price for their support? 

[rob in cal]

I'm hoping the SNP comes in under 50% but still wins close to 100% of the seats, to help discredit the FPTP system, and to take a little wind out of their sails if they say they speak for Scotland.  Certainly they will represent a big chunk of the Scottish electorate, but if in fact over 50% vote for other parties one would think that would count for something.

[rob in cal]

  I think the Greens would do ok with proportional representation.  Without it, they are doomed to the political wilderness, just like Green parties in all other non-PR countries, with the partial exception of France.

[rob in cal]

   A new argument for the Conservatives.  We've failed on our commitment  to lower immigration because the economy is doing too well.

[rob in cal]

  I looked at the internals of some of the Ashcroft constituency polls for what type of government Green and UKIP votes favor, either Conservatives alone, Labour alone, Cons with LD's, and Lab with LD.  Of course the sample sizes are small, but in the four cases I looked at, UKIP voters favored some type of Conservative government over some type of Labour government around 52-62% for Tories to 23-32 for Labour, so pretty close to two to one.  Greens on the other hand were the opposite, but even more pro Labour, about 60-70% for Labour and 12-20% for Tories.  Perhaps an indicator of where these voters would go if they abandon their first choice.

[rob in cal]

  The one difference between this and previous elections and previous polls is to my mind the rise of UKIP.  There hasn't been a large party on the right of the spectrum outside of the Tories ever, unless I'm forgetting something.  So, if in fact the polls are overestimating their strength, this will likely be a factor in favor of the conservatives I would think.  This would be counterbalanced somewhat if the Greens also fare less well.

[rob in cal]

I haven't seen much mention of the strong possibility that if in fact both Labour and Tories are tied in national vote shares that should actually mean a Labour victory in terms of seats won over the Tories.  There doesn't seem to be much of a "tie equals Labour win" narrative.

[rob in cal]

Hmmm, I was thinking that just in England and Wales Labour would still have an advantage in seats vs the Tories if they get an even amount of votes, just much less of an advantage without Scotland.

[rob in cal]

I wonder how many Tory MP's there are who are now regretting the defeat of the Alternate Vote in 2011.
 Also, if Britain had the Irish electoral system, this election would have a lot of drama, with lots of fights for the last seat in numerous districts.