UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[YL]

As to constituency polls, remember to handle with care. There were a couple of howlers in the recent NSW state election, you might like to note.

Both the Hallam and Cambridge polls were carried out in university vacations.  I don't think this is a good idea in either, especially the latter.  (This may also have been the explanation for Ashcroft's Southampton Itchen apparent outlier; he even suggested that himself at the time IIRC.)

[YL]

YouGov's website is now the most impressive UK political website around imo. Check out their election centre: https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre

... though they think I live in the West Midlands.

[YL]

Sturgeon and Bennett are impressing me the most.

[YL]

Jim McGovern, Labour MP for Dundee West since 2005, is a late retirement.  The seat is presumably going SNP regardless.

[YL]

ICM Wisdom Index (asking for an estimate of the party shares on May 7th) has Labour and the Tories both on 32 with the Lib Dems on 14 and UKIP on 12.

They're still doing that thing?

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Carried out by ComedyResults for a UKIP donor (not the one who commissions constituency polls from Survation).  There are some claims about the methodology floating around, but I haven't seen tables yet.  Take with a pinch of salt.

[YL]

(It was estimated in 2005 that Iraq cost Labour 3% and 3% only)

I would argue that, in the context of UK general election swings, 3% is actually quite a lot for a single issue.  And there are still people who won't vote Labour, or are reluctant to do so, because of Iraq; I know some of them.

[I'd be a bit sceptical of any precise claim about how big the effect was, anyway; it's not going to be an easy thing to measure.]

[YL]

Ashcroft's national poll is notorious for its zig zagging, so maybe his constituency polls do the same thing (or would do if they were as regular as his national poll).

Interestingly, Political Betting isn't spinning these as good news for the Tories as you might expect.

The margin of error in these should be similar to his national polls (i.e. about 4% for vote shares) and there is indeed a bit of bouncing around.  All these seats have been polled for him before, and they appear to have been chosen because they were close before (which means that people should be careful about quoting average swings based on them; they are not a random sample of marginals).

I would be particularly cautious about Loughborough (university seat polled in vacation).  Of the others, some are supporting previous disappointing Ashcroft polls for Labour (e.g. Gloucester, Pendle and especially Kingswood) while others look better (Harrow East, Stockton South, Hove); because of the latter type the May2015 forecast (which takes Ashcroft polls as gospel truth) has shifted by three seats to Labour today.

[YL]

(It was estimated in 2005 that Iraq cost Labour 3% and 3% only)

I would argue that, in the context of UK general election swings, 3% is actually quite a lot for a single issue.  And there are still people who won't vote Labour, or are reluctant to do so, because of Iraq; I know some of them.

[I'd be a bit sceptical of any precise claim about how big the effect was, anyway; it's not going to be an easy thing to measure.]

Could someone be so kind as to explain how the Iraq War affect(s)(-ed) parties in the UK? I don't know much about UK politics. Is the Labour Party seen as the "pro-war" party? Or is it an awkward, "they're generally anti-war, Iraq was an exception" mixed view?

And how do the Conservatives fit into this?

Historically Labour have generally had more of an anti-war element than the Tories, but Blair was very much not part of that (not when PM, anyway) and so he led the UK into the war.  There was a substantial minority of Labour MPs (getting on for a third of the parliamentary party) who voted against.  The Tories were generally in favour, with a smaller minority (including Ken Clarke) who were against, and the Lib Dems were against.  Among left-liberal voters who voted Lib Dem rather than Labour in 2005 and 2010, Iraq would be commonly given as a reason.

[YL]

Nominations close at 4pm tomorrow.

[YL]

The Northern Ireland Tories actually got 32% in maverick North Down in 1992, standing against the Popular Unionist (a one-person political party, essentially) incumbent James Kilfedder, coming within 3000 votes of taking the seat.  (This was a bit odd as Kilfedder actually took the Tory whip at Westminster.)

But in 1995, Kilfedder died, and in the by-election the Tories collapsed dramatically (even by 1995 standards), getting only just over 2% of the vote.  (The by-election was won by Robert McCartney, who set up his own more or less one-person party, the UK Unionists.)

Even in 1992, they didn't do much outside of North Down.

Speaking of GB parties fighting NI elections, there was also a by-election in Upper Bann in 1990 (won by David Trimble).  The Tories stood in that, getting 3%, but the continuing SDP also stood, and did, well, about as well as they famously did in a by-election in Bootle a week later.

[YL]

Class War are standing in Maidenhead.  I wonder which side of the war the candidate thinks he's on.

[YL]

Time for some more salt: we have some more Ashcroft constituency polls.  Most of these are ones which need about a 5% swing for Labour to win.

Cleethorpes: Con 2 ahead of Lab
Crewe & Nantwich: Lab 3 ahead of Con
Dover: Con 8 ahead of Lab
Dudley South: Con 4 ahead of Lab
Finchley & Golders Green: Lab 2 ahead of Con
Harlow: Con 10 ahead of Lab
Milton Keynes South: Lab 2 ahead of Con
North East Somerset: Con 16 ahead of Lab (I suppose voters tend to like "characters")
Rossendale & Darwen: Con/Lab tie
South Ribble: Con/Lab tie

[YL]

It seems that there is a very strong Independent candidate running in East Devon (a safe Tory seat). Normally local government independents who try to transfer to General Elections are lucky to poll 10%, but there are indications that this one might be a little different.

Although, after a quick Google, I see she's not at all UKIPy, I feel like UKIP would have to give an independent a free run in this part of the world if they were to win.

Some of the generic protest vote which has attached itself to UKIP might well consider an Independent, even one who, as you say, isn't at all UKIPy.  If she could combine that with a large chunk of the ABT vote then she could do pretty well, but it'd be amazing if she actually won, given that I can't see any of the sort of unusual circumstances that are usually associated with Independent wins.  And I think that part of the world has been Tory essentially since the Precambrian.

[YL]

What does everyone think of the YouGov nowcast - is it actually worth anything, or is it just a bit of fun?

They haven't revealed their methodology in full, so I can't really tell how sensible it is, but without a variety of reliable constituency polls it's hard to do a good 538 style prediction in the UK.  (They're using their own data, but they don't really have enough members in each constituency IMO.)

That said, it seems to look reasonably plausible in most places.

[YL]

Usual constituency poll warnings:

East Dunbartonshire (Lib Dem poll)
Lib - 34.5% (-4.2% on 2010)
SNP - 32.1% (+21.6%)
Lab - 16.2% (-17.9%)
Con - 13.1% (-2.4%)
Grn - 2.0% (+2.0%)
UKIP - 0.7% (-0.4%)

This is a Lib Dem poll - so it's likely that it's weighted to benefit the Lib Dems. Apparently Ashcroft are polling there right now, which would give an indication on what non-partisan (or as close as we're going to get) polling says. East Dunbartonshire was 39% Yes in the referendum.

There are two things which have to be borne in mind with this poll on top of any concerns about constituency polling in general.

Firstly, the Lib Dems chose the methodology, and as Al said, if their Hornsey & Wood Green poll is anything to go by it may have been quite dodgy methodology.  In H & WG they asked favourability questions about the candidates before the voting intention question, which gives me an excuse to post this.

Secondly, we've been told that the Lib Dems have commissioned an awful lot of these polls, around 100.  However, only three (I think) of them have actually had figures released to the press; it would be naïve to assume that those three were a representative selection.  Indeed, it wouldn't surprise me if this is not the only poll that they've commissioned of East Dunbartonshire, but it is the one where they decided to release the numbers...

PS: today's YouGov says Lab 35 Con 34 UKIP 13 Lib Dem 8 Green 5 SNP/Plaid 5.

[YL]

Ipsos MORI phone poll: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 10 Green 8 Lib Dem 7.  They were ramping this as "definitely worth watching"...

[YL]

Ipsos MORI phone poll: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 10 Green 8 Lib Dem 7.  They were ramping this as "definitely worth watching"...

MORI were the first to whore themselves out in their press releases and are still the worst for it. I presume those headline figures are their usual Certains Only ones? What are the Everyone figures?

The Everyone figures are Lab 35 Con 32 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 8 SNP 5.  (The SNP are also on 5 in the Certains Only ones.)  So not much difference this time.

[YL]

Farage just had a go at the audience.

... and then Sturgeon demolished him.

[YL]

Polls (all online, all released in the last 24 hours or so):

YouGov: Lab 34 Con 34 UKIP 14 Lib Dem 7 Green 5 SNP/Plaid 5
Populus: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 14 Lib Dem 9 SNP 5 Green 4
Panelbase: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 16 Lib Dem 8 SNP 4 Green 4

[YL]

Is there any mainland Scottish seat which anyone feels confident that the SNP won't win?

[YL]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-nigel-farage-is-on-course-to-lose-south-thanet-election-after-experts-predict-ukip-wipeout-10187516.html?cmpid=facebook-post

"Nigel Farage is on course to lose in South Thanet and Ukip faces wipeout, experts predict" followed by "Nigel Farage is on course to fail in his bid to become South Thanet’s first Ukip MP and the party is expected to lose half its seats in the upcoming general, experts have predicted."

Wipeout, to me at least, means losing all their seats. Anyway losing half their seats would still be UKIP's best ever General Election performance.

...doesn't UKIP have two seats?

Yes, though as neither was a UKIP seat in 2010 they're both likely to be treated as Conservative seats for the purpose of tallying gains and losses.  The article is based on electionforecast.co.uk, which is currently giving UKIP a 71% chance of holding Clacton but no more than 2% of winning anywhere else.  So, as Clyde1998 says, the use of the term "wipeout" is odd.

Also, they say

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but the website is publicly accessible and has been saying something similar to this for ages.  Nothing has been "revealed" by the Sun on Sunday.

(And whether the forecast is any good, especially at predicting the fortunes of an insurgent party, is an open question.  I find its 0% for UKIP in South Thanet surprising, to say the least.)

[YL]

There are, however, some definite house effects in the polls, not that this should be surprising.  YouGov poll every day, and haven't had a Tory lead in their last 10 polls, and Populus poll twice a week and haven't had a Tory lead all year, while ICM, Ashcroft and Opinium are producing Tory leads more often than not.  It's not just a phone/online divide: Opinium are online, and MORI do phone polls and also haven't had a Tory lead this year (though they've only had four polls).

[YL]

Most recent YouGov's have shown effective ties, so really there's nothing to confirm. Pollsters and newspapers that publish polls have really got to stop hyping the not-worth-hyping.

The hyping is silly, of course, but I see no reason to expect anything better from the Sun.  I'm more disappointed in the pollsters who do it.

[YL]

I almost don't know why I'm posting this as it's a) by ComRes and b) is a marginals poll (urgh). But because I'm good to you...

This is apparently a poll of UKIP target seats.* Results and changes on 2010 are:

Conservatives 39% (-7.3)
Labour 28% (+1.7)
UK Independence Party 21% (+15.4)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-10.2)
Green Party 4% (+3.6)
Others 3% (-0.8)

As all of these are coastal (well... estuarial in a couple of cases but that's close enough...) there's plenty of salt around to help those numbers go down!

_{*South Thanet, Boston and Skegness, Thurrock, Forest of Dean, Great Yarmouth, North Thanet, East Worthing and Shoreham, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, South Basildon and East Thurrock, and Castle Point.}

This does not look very good for the purple peril at first sight, but surely those constituencies are too heterogeneous for this to be a sensible poll, even if the sampling is competent?

[YL]

Monster Raving Loony is running in 16 constituencies.

They even have a splinter group, the Eccentric Party of Great Britain.  In Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the Raving Loonies are running Howling Laud Hope and the Eccentrics are running Lord Toby Jug.

The Church of the Militant Elvis appear not to be standing this time, but we do have the Al-Zebabist Nation of Ooog standing in South Thanet.