UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[ObserverIE]

Forgive my ignorance as a Canadian about UK politics. What is the Liberal Dem platform about ? Are they a more left wing socialist party than Labour ? Or are they moderate heroes ?

That's been my understanding.  The party was born out of a merger between a splinter group of right-wing Labourites and the (classical liberal) Liberals.  Their voter base today appears to still be spiritually inherited from both of those.

Other than constitutional reform (which is mostly self-serving) and being firmly pro-EU (which I don't know if that's a modern thing, or another policy going all the way back to the pre-SDP and Liberal days), I really have no idea what else they stand for.

The pre-merger Liberals were not notably classical - much more a social liberal party with a tradition of grassroots activism and a Greenish tinge avant la lettre.

The Lib Dems would traditionally have been moderate heroes (at a time when Labour were anti-European and the Tories Thatcherite) but gradually ended up during the Blair years occupying a "functionally left of Labour" niche due to Labour policies on civil liberties, Iraq and student tuition fees, which resulted in them winning a number of public-sector middle class/student constituencies in 2005 and 2010, while still holding the "moderate hero" vote. They also benefited as a surrogate for Labour in seats in the rural south-west of England and rural Scotland and Wales.

The party then turned round after May 2010 and enabled a Conservative government pursuing doctrinaire classical liberal policies (with the support of a rump around the Clegg leadership who were themselves sympathetic to classical liberalism, but had strangely failed to communicate this sympathy to their voters). The result is that the various slices of support painstakingly acquired over the previous thirty-five years have jumped ship and the party is back to its support levels of the 1960s and early 1970s.

[ObserverIE]

Portsmouth South?

[ObserverIE]

I see the Conservatives are running in 16 of the 18 NI constituencies (with 11 candidates not from NI).

The two constituencies where they are not standing: Fermanagh-South Tyrone and North Belfast.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/10/one-all-male-constituency-24-candidates-are-female-3-unionist-parties-running-all-male-candidates-ge2015/

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

Any bets for how the paper endorsements going to go this time around?

There has been a local Conservative organisation in Northern Ireland since the late 80s/early 90s (originally consisting of integrationists - people who wanted NI to be governed as an integral part of the UK without any local devolved government and therefore avoiding any power-sharing with the Nationalist community).

They had some modest initial support in the early 1990s in upper middle-class mainly Protestant exurbs of Belfast (Bangor, Holywood, Lisburn) winning some local council seats, but their support collapsed in the mid-90s and hasn't recovered since. They are effectively a micro-party with delusions of grandeur.

[ObserverIE]

The Northern Ireland Tories actually got 32% in maverick North Down in 1992, standing against the Popular Unionist (a one-person political party, essentially) incumbent James Kilfedder, coming within 3000 votes of taking the seat.  (This was a bit odd as Kilfedder actually took the Tory whip at Westminster.)

But in 1995, Kilfedder died, and in the by-election the Tories collapsed dramatically (even by 1995 standards), getting only just over 2% of the vote.  (The by-election was won by Robert McCartney, who set up his own more or less one-person party, the UK Unionists.)

Even in 1992, they didn't do much outside of North Down.

Kilfedder was a devolutionist; the Tories were hard-line integrationists (as was/is McCartney).

[ObserverIE]

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

In the case of the Conservatives in the late 1980s (see ObserverIE's post) although before 1974 the Ulster Unionist Party was technically the NI wing of the Conservative Party. That particular weird little project basically folded by the middle of the 1990s only to be somewhat revived under David Cameron's leadership; the UUP and the Tories ran on a joint slate in 2010 with UUP candidates in some constituencies and Tory ones in others (none were elected). This also resulted in the last UUP MP (left-leaning Sylvia Hermon) to leave the UUP and to seek re-election (successfully) as an Independent Unionist. All of which was rather embarrassing.

The UUP-Conservative linkup was meant to provide the Conservatives with a few extra seats and the UUP leadership with an infusion of cash and resources for campaigning.

It allowed the local delusionals in the NI Conservatives to pretend that they were a major force in politics, but also meant that they were demanding to be treated as on a par with the much larger UUP, which led to rows over selections. It also allowed a bunch of crypto-Tories with blogs inside the UUP to mount a campaign to drive Hermon out of the party under the illusion that North Down (which was, of course, economically, socially and culturally identical with Surrey) would happily replace her with a Conservative/UUP fusion candidate. The link was talked up by the likes of Slugger O'Toole as a means of transforming NI politics.

It didn't quite work out like that.

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To be honest, I suspect that they would not have a lot more success than their Conservative analogues.

[ObserverIE]

(The by-election was won by Robert McCartney, who set up his own more or less one-person party, the UK Unionists.)

Adding to the weirdness: McCartney unofficially took the Labour whip at Westminster. Further adding to the weirdness: Sylvia Hermon (who defeated him) has done much the same thing.

How much of McCartney's friendliness towards Labour outlasted the Good Friday Agreement and how much of it was due to his association with the likes of Kate Hoey?

[ObserverIE]

This article needs to be shared:

Election sketch: Amandeep Singh Bhogal, the Sikh Conservative who wants to end sectarian politics in Northern Ireland

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Not everyone went to Eton! Some people went to Charterhouse!

Never change, Tories.

You don't understand. Banbridge is socially and culturally identical to Tunbridge Wells...

[ObserverIE]

How much of McCartney's friendliness towards Labour outlasted the Good Friday Agreement and how much of it was due to his association with the likes of Kate Hoey?

I'm relying entirely on memory here so might be wrong, but IIRC he mostly stick to the whip (supplied to him by, naturally, Kate Hoey) until his defeat.

The Cruiser was also a member of his joke of a party, as I'm sure you're aware.

Well, up to the point when he announced that the best option for Unionists would be to do a deal with the (then) dominant parties in the Republic for a version of a united Ireland rather than wait for demographics within NI to present them with a situation where they would be facing a Nationalist majority. (The Cruiser was well into senility by then and this may have been one of his more lucid moments.)

At which stage the collection of Bible-thumpers and integrationists who had gravitated to McCartney's vision of "secular" Unionism reared up in fury and the Cruiser was forced to scuttle.

(This was only a short time before McCartney's entire Assembly party jumped ship to form the short-lived NIUP.)

[ObserverIE]

what is the LibDem stance over NI? I know the liberals were always ok with devolution and were in government thanks to the IN back in the days.

The stance is to support the current settlement and otherwise hope that they don't have to pay any attention to it.

[ObserverIE]

Prediction: Yougov's poll tomorrow will show a 3 point Labour lead, thus returning us back to the beginning.

Con 33 (-2), Labour 34, UKIP 14 (+1), LDem 7, Greens 5, Others 7 (+1)

[ObserverIE]

So is Charles Kennedy going to lose then? I don't see his seat on that list.

He's been behind on two successive Ashcroft polls (by 15% in the most recent).

(Cue Al's caveat on constituency polls.)

[ObserverIE]

Prediction: Yougov's poll tomorrow will show a 3 point Labour lead, thus returning us back to the beginning.

Con 33 (-2), Labour 34, UKIP 14 (+1), LDem 7, Greens 5, Others 7 (+1)

Sensational findings!

The Sun manages to restrain itself in reporting them.

[ObserverIE]

Can somebody explain why UKIP seems to be targeting the areas around the Thames Estuary? What is it about this area that's so (relatively) amenable to them? For some reason I'd previously been under the impression that their greatest strength was in the West Country.

White flight, basically.

Their other area of focus is isolated and somewhat neglected rural agricultural areas in the east of England that have seen an influx of Eastern European migrant workers (Lincolnshire, Norfolk, parts of Cambridgeshire) and fishing ports (Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, also parts of the south-west).

[ObserverIE]

The 1992/1997 share for the Lib Dems that some people were predicting doesn't look overly likely now, does it?

Vote share, no. But actual number of seats held could still outstrip what they won in 1992.

Possibly. But very few seats look to be rock-solid or even comfortable. At a guess:

Orkney and Shetland
Westmorland and Lonsdale
Norfolk North
Colchester
Carshalton and Wallington
Twickenham
Lewes
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Thornbury and Yate
Yeovil
Bath

But a lot of those above haven't been polled. After all, Bristol West seemed to be a reasonable prospect for a hold right up to the point where Ashcroft showed them in a distant third behind Labour and the Greens. Charlie Kennedy looked to be a rusted-on hold (not a euphemism) until the polls showed him behind the SNP.

[ObserverIE]

My my, but David Cameron and Nick Clegg have both spent an awful lot of the campaign down in the West Country haven't they?

I've seen the phrase "gnawing through the lifebelt" used for the Tories' advance on LibDemistan.

As for Clegg, if you were on the verge of returning your party to 1950s obscurity, wouldn't you be trying to save what you could?

[ObserverIE]

Cameron was in Yeovil last week. Of course a Conservative gain in Yeovil would represent a swing to the left.

Not so much gnawing through the lifebelt as taking a chainsaw to it.

[ObserverIE]

Changes: Lab +1, Con -1, Green -1, Others +1

[ObserverIE]

YouGov: Lab 33, Con 33, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 10, Greens 5

Con -1, Lib Dem +1

#libdemsurge

[ObserverIE]

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/04/independent-conservative-liberal-democrat-coalition-cameron-clegg

Independent backs another coalition between Tories and Liberal Democrats

This is a bit of a surprise

How big is Alexander Lebedev's mansion again?

[ObserverIE]

Lab 96
SNP 92
L Dem 88
Green 86
PC 83
SF 79
Con 64
UKIP 54
BNP 43
DUP 18

(SDLP as an option would have been interesting.)

I am a left-wing authoritarian (which makes me sound like Stalin - or at least Hifly ) who would feel most at home in Birkenhead, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Northampton South or Dundee West.

[ObserverIE]

Ashcroft: Con 32, Lab 30, UKIP 12, Lib Dems 11, Greens 7, SNP 5, Others 3

Con -4, UKIP +1, Lib Dem +2, SNP +1

#libdemsurge #toryplunge

[ObserverIE]

Survation:

Lab 34, Con 33, UKIP 16 (-1), Lib Dem 9 (+1), Greens 4.

[ObserverIE]

ICM gives a tie: Lab 35 Con 35 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 9 Green 3

pb.com herd looking for a new Gold Standard.