UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[afleitch]

I might run a 'poll of polls' on here. I need to work on the model.

[afleitch]

ComRes poll of Labour seats in Scotland point to basically what we already know.

[afleitch]

Labour-held seats in Scotland - ComRes Poll:
SNP - 43%
Labour - 37%
Conservatives - 13%
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 2%
Lib Dems - 2%

Poll conducted in the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland - Labour would be left with 12 MPs according to this poll.

If the change on 2010 is applied nationwide you get;

SNP - 43
LAB - 28
CON - 16
LD - 7

So what would be expected.

[afleitch]

Even if the overall figures fit into wider patterns, you probably shouldn't over analyse anything ComRes churn out...

---

Regarding Plaid, they're under pressure in Arfon and possibly Carmarthen East & Dinefwr. The Island is a law unto itself (of course), while they will be hoping for a repeat of 1992 in Ceredigion (I have no idea how likely or not that is). They always try in Llanelli but have yet to come close. Elsewhere they will make a noise but that's likely it.

Incidentally, it's not entirely impossible that after May there will be no Liberal seats in Wales for the first time since... er... well 'ever' will probably do. Since at least the 1720s if we're counting ancestral parties.

If Leanne Wood does well at the debate; whether real, perceived or crowned by the media, where might it have an effect, if anywhere?

[afleitch]

YouGov's website is now the most impressive UK political website around imo. Check out their election centre: https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre

The little forecast is interesting, though it's Nowcast suggests 0 Plaid MP'S :/

[afleitch]

FWIW hifly's opinion on everything is generally worth hee haw on here so it's not worth your effort.

[afleitch]

Anyway, the YouGov Election Centre is actually quite interesting and I'm sure will no doubt be binned if it misses the mark on the day so enjoy it while you can.

As of today, they have 8 UKIP 'wins' on the NowCast and Plaid have regained Dwyfor Meirionnydd Scotland is a bloodbath with only 1 Lib Dem, 1 Tory and 1 Labour MP left.

[afleitch]

Nicola doing rather well.

[afleitch]

Sturgeon just zingered Farage.

She did.

Farage is getting bored. Everyone is just ignoring him.

[afleitch]

Wood calmly tore Farage a new one there. I think Farage has given up.

[afleitch]

Listening to Leanne Wood is like listening to a small child.

You'd have a great conversation with each other then.

[afleitch]

To 'win' any GB poll, given the fact that the SNP and her personally have suffered quite astounding negativity is impressive.

[afleitch]

ComRes:


Net ratings:
Sturgeon +16%
Miliband +7%
Cameron +6%
Clegg +3%
Farage +1%
Wood -14%
Bennett -25%

Probably the best way to measure all these polls to be honest.

[afleitch]

FWIW, YouGov for the day

CON 37
LAB 35
LD 7
UKIP 12
GRN 5

[afleitch]

What the Liberal Democrats are likely to see this year is an unwinding/uncoupling of support that has built up behind them in heaves and pushes since the Alliance days. If anything the Lib Dems will default to the old Liberal base, loosing a huge left wedge and some post-Major Tory sympathisers. That actually suits Nick Clegg and his side of the party in that in many ways they can actually move to the 'centre' and try and forge an identity from there.

This is also the first election in a while that the Liberal Democrats are realistically defending seats rather than trying to advance and being quite open about that. There are a certain seats they know they can hold against the tide and will invest their energies there to try and limit any losses.

[afleitch]

Last night's YouGov poll has made the Tories happy...happy that it shows them matching Jim Callaghan.

?

[afleitch]

Last night's YouGov poll has made the Tories happy...happy that it shows them matching Jim Callaghan.

?

Just a snide remark on my part; on their VI figure last night.

Yeah, but 37% would equal what they got last time, and best what Blair got in 2005 which by itself would be impressive by any recent standards.

[afleitch]

Viewing figures down quite a way on five years ago.

Well it was a novelty then. Now they seem ten a penny these days

[afleitch]

Because they can't leave us alone over Easter, Survation are apparently spoiling us with a post-debate voting intention poll.

[afleitch]

Here we go. Changes on last poll

CON 31 (-1)
LAB 33 (=)
LIB 9 (+1)
UKIP 18 (=)
GRN 3 (-1)

So nothing too exciteable

[afleitch]

Mirror reporting of this poll is hilarious. No move on voting intention,  party leaders up, Miliband moves down by rank as a result.  Useless poll.

[afleitch]

Slightly odd story here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32177315

Labour plant?

Not sure. French denied it, Nicola denied it. Telegraph published the full memo where the writer says he thinks she's been lost in translation. Scottish Labour all over it, some have tracked back while others are still engaged in a Moby Dick style obsession. If it's a stitch up then it's backfired on quite a few faces.

[afleitch]

The consul general in Edinburgh has given an interview denying it. So people in the room are denying it. And the memo itself sort of suggests it didn't happen. It's all very weird. I suppose it's more a matter of now who leaked it, but who wrote it?

For the record, I went to school with the co-reporter on this Telegraph story.

[afleitch]

What is the Torygraph playing at exactly? What's the goal they're aiming for?

To discredit Labour and or undermine any cooperation with the SNP. Scottish Labour jumped on it too quickly then backtracked. At least until this morning when Ed, having apparently not been briefed, jumped in to accuse Sturgeon so now Labour have had to run with it again. It was a spiked story in that it wasn't one but may end up shoring up the SNP at Labour's expense.

[afleitch]

Here is some commentary. Quite confusing situation. :/

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/will-we-find-out-what-nicola-sturgeon-said-to-the-french-ambassador/

There are better commentators than Damian McBride. Like my cat for instance...