UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Simfan34]

Very nice! Sad it's just noise. Sadder indeed that with the Scotland thing it's probably best for the country that Labour win...

[Simfan34]

North East Somerset: Con 16 ahead of Lab (I suppose voters tend to like "characters")

Isn't Labour running some American there? Serves them right.

[Simfan34]

Well that seat (and its predecessors) had long been safe Tory before, no? So it shouldn't be terribly surprising. Won't claim to be an expert, though, just a fan of Rees-Mogg (which should surprise absolutely no one).

[Simfan34]

Another UKIP question.  Doesn't Cameron's promise to hold an EU in or out referendum during the next parliament's term amount to a giant move toward the very essence of what UKIP wants?  This being the case, does it make sense for UKIP to be running candidates in tory marginal seats where the main effect of its candidates might be to allow the victory of an anti-referendum labour candidate. UKIP could still run candidates everywhere else, and against every prominent pro-European Union MP, but stand aside in all marginal tory seats where there is a likely tory pro-referendum sitting MP or MP candidate.

This might work, yes. The crucial problem is that UKIP is not clever enough to pull off such a thing.

[Simfan34]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-nigel-farage-is-on-course-to-lose-south-thanet-election-after-experts-predict-ukip-wipeout-10187516.html?cmpid=facebook-post

"Nigel Farage is on course to lose in South Thanet and Ukip faces wipeout, experts predict" followed by "Nigel Farage is on course to fail in his bid to become South Thanet’s first Ukip MP and the party is expected to lose half its seats in the upcoming general, experts have predicted."

Wipeout, to me at least, means losing all their seats. Anyway losing half their seats would still be UKIP's best ever General Election performance.

...doesn't UKIP have two seats?

[Simfan34]

It's the 1880s again, I want to say, and just give up.

[Simfan34]

Question: is there any indication that there are people in England whose primary issue is Scotland, that is, preserving the Union? If so, what kind of people would they be? I'd imagine they'd be "one nation Tory" types but perhaps I'm projecting- at this point it'd probably be my main concern going into the election.

Would people be willing to vote strategically on this issue- vote for the party that's most likely to keep the SNP out?

[Simfan34]

I imagine those that do care very strongly about this are rather unlikely to be Labour voters anyway.

That's what I thought.

[Simfan34]

What's the important thing: May or the free* chicken from Marks and Spencer?

[Simfan34]

In its manifesto the SNP calls for Proportional Representation.  I wonder if the huge SNP delegation about to come in will still be in favor of PR with many of the new MP's only elected because of FPTP.  Also, would they insist on some type of Labour move toward it as a price for their support? 

Ahhh... no they'd no longer do that I think.

[Simfan34]

2015: -14.2?

[Simfan34]

The Guardian has endorsed Labour outright, rather than calling for a 'progressive coalition'. The Guardian (contrary to what some believe) isn't really a naturally Labour paper though; if it were an MP it would be Charles Kennedy or Julian Huppert.

Not really

[Simfan34]

Mori: Con 35, Lab 30, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, Greens 8

Not good for Labour, but also not the first poll in which we have seen a weirdly high Green share.

Oh yeah, and "Others" are on 9...

Please don't be wrong!

The parliament in this case would be truly hung though, no? Neither Con-Lib or Lab-SNP could muster a majority. What would happen then?

[Simfan34]

I mean like this:



Here they have a "Con-Nat" agreement zone... but that's nigh well impossible. So it's really "no overall control". If the result does wind up in that zone, what happens?

[Simfan34]

This seems to give the Palace a fair amount of agency in this situation, no?

How else will it become clear, though? If Cameron hangs on until his Queen's speech is defeated, and the Queen appoints Miliband, but his speech is defeated, what happens? Another election?

[Simfan34]

Because they can't form a government otherwise.

[Simfan34]

Just need to knock UKIP down a few and it'll be all right...

[Simfan34]

If not for the RISE OF THE SNP this would have been an incredibly boring election. It's just been tied the whole time. Even the third parties haven't really moved at all. At least election night should be fun though.

If not for the rise of the SNP it would be boring, because Labour would stand a good chance at getting a majority.

[Simfan34]

90% Conservative.

Said I was a "moderate libertarian", though.